👍 One prompt = one second in the microwave

Myths are spreading about AI and energy. The claim that AI is energy-intensive has gained widespread traction.

I have previously described, both here and in my book, how wrong this is.

Now more facts have emerged that confirm exactly that — AI is not energy-intensive.

In Hannah Ritchie's overview, I found a useful rule of thumb for describing how much energy AI uses.

Because a fundamental problem is that we don't know how much energy we use on almost anything, and therefore we have no way of judging what is a lot or a little.

The rule of thumb is this:
One prompt = one second in the microwave

Heating something in a 1000-watt microwave for one second uses just as much (or as little) electricity as a simple question or instruction to ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or any of the other AI models.

If you heat food for two minutes in the microwave, that corresponds to 120 prompts, which in turn corresponds to hours of AI chatting.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

💶 Solar power has saved Europe more than €100 million per day since March

Solar energy has saved Europe more than €100 million per day since 1 March, totaling more than €3 billion. Wind and solar power have reduced electricity prices by an average of 24% between 2023 and 2025. If gas prices remain high, total savings in 2026 could reach €67.5 billion.

Read more on Warp News

👩‍💻 Open source helps reach millions of unvaccinated children

Many countries have long collected vaccination data on paper or in Excel, causing delays and gaps. Now the University of Oslo and Gavi have built digital systems in 40 low- and middle-income countries. The result: hundreds of thousands of children vaccinated – in Mozambique and Kenya alone.

Read more on Warp News

🔋 Sodium-ion batteries ready for mass market - cheaper and more durable than lithium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion batteries are cheaper and more durable than lithium-ion batteries, but have not been possible to manufacture at scale until now. CATL says the manufacturing challenges are solved. The cells handle more than 15,000 cycles, and sodium is 1,000 times more abundant than lithium.

Read more on Warp News

⚰️ Deaths from indoor air pollution have fallen by 1.5 million since 1990

The annual number of premature deaths from indoor air pollution has dropped from around 4.5 million to just under 3 million per year. The decline is driven by more people gaining access to cleaner cooking fuels. Asia accounts for the largest reduction, with deaths cut roughly in half.

Read more on Warp News

⚡ Finland has cut power sector emissions by 80 percent in a decade

Finland's emissions from electricity generation fell from nearly 15 million tonnes to around 3 million tonnes per year between 2016 and 2025. Nuclear and wind power together account for 64.5 percent of generation. The last coal plant was shut down in April 2025.

Read more on Warp News

🤰 Teenage pregnancy rates have fallen sharply across the world

Globally, the number of births among teenage girls has fallen by over one-third since 2000. In Central and South Asia, the figure has dropped by over three-quarters during the same period. The decline is seen across all regions of the world, according to data from the UN.

Read more on Warp News

👍 New rule of thumb for AI energy use: One prompt = one second in the microwave

A simple AI query uses about 0.3 watt-hours of electricity. A microwave at around 1,000 watts uses about 0.28 watt-hours per second. So a simple AI query corresponds to roughly one second in the microwave.

Read more on Warp News

🎙️ AI talk or master class?

I'm giving a lot of talks and master classes on AI in several different countries. Happy to come to your organization.

Learn more at mathiassundin.org.

Two heating stages have been electrified

SaltX Technology and Holcim, within their joint development partnership, have repeatedly produced cement clinker of Portland quality through a fully electrified process. Cement clinker is the main component that is ground down to make cement. Cement raw meal from Holcim has been calcined at industrial scale and then sintered using SaltX's newly developed electrification technology. The results meet the material quality requirements and confirm a proof of concept for fully electrified cement production.

Cement production involves two major heating stages. First, the limestone is calcined, which breaks calcium carbonate down into calcium oxide and carbon dioxide. The material is then sintered at an even higher temperature, forming the mineral phases that give Portland cement its properties. In conventional cement production, sintering takes place in a rotary kiln fueled by fossil or waste-based fuels.

Plasma technology replaces combustion

In the trial, SaltX has tackled both heating stages. Calcination has been carried out at SaltX's test and research facility in Hofors using the company's Electric Arc Calciner. Instead of burning coal or gas, the raw meal is heated using electric plasma technology.

One advantage of electrified calcination is that the process CO2 from the limestone is not diluted by flue gases from fuel combustion. This makes the CO2 easier to separate and capture.

Sintering in an electric reactor

The calcined material has then been passed on to SaltX's newly developed Electric Clinker Reactor, ECR. There, the material has been heated electrically to the temperatures required to form clinker. The sintering stage requires higher temperatures than calcination and is one of the most technically demanding parts of cement production.

The finished clinker is reported to be of Portland quality. This means that the correct chemical and mineralogical transformations have taken place, and that the material can be used in standard cement production.

Lina Jorheden, CEO of SaltX Technology, says that the results show that a fully electrified cement process can be realized at industrial scale, and that electrifying both calcination and sintering is central to the transition.

Bengt Steinbrecher, Head of Holcim MAQER Ventures, confirms that SaltX's electrification solution can produce clinker of Portland quality and describes the result as a validation of the technology.

The results represent a step toward the planned pilot facility within the partnership.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
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Cyanobacteria transformed into sowable grains

Researchers at the Shapotou Desert Research and Experiment Station have developed a solid cyanobacteria inoculum. The material is spread on desert sand and forms an artificial biological soil crust when exposed to precipitation. The crust stabilizes the dunes and creates the conditions needed for plants to establish themselves.

Zhao Yang, deputy head of the Shapotou station, explains that earlier laboratory attempts worked in petri dishes, but the cyanobacteria disappeared within less than a week once moved into the wild. The mobile sand grains tore apart the delicate biofilm.

Pressurized spraying led to solid form

To solve the problem, Zhao drew inspiration from natural rainfall and tried pressurized spraying. The method injected the cyanobacteria into the gaps between sand grains. The time required to form soil crust dropped from 15 years under natural conditions to one or two years, with a survival rate of over 60 percent. The method also protected the bacteria from dehydration in direct sunlight and made use of the sand layer's own ability to retain moisture.

However, the spraying required electricity and accessible roads, which made it unusable in remote areas. The team therefore developed a paste-like mixture of cyanobacteria solution, organic matter, and fine particles. Zhao describes the process as similar to mixing cement, where the proportions and stirring method have to be right. The result was solid "seeds" that are easy to transport and sow.

Large-scale use in shelterbelt program

The solid inoculum has been incorporated into the new Three-North Shelterbelt Program. Over the next five years, between 80,000 and 100,000 mu of desert are expected to be restored, equivalent to roughly 13,200 to 16,500 acres.

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Two compact magnets

The research group at ETH Zürich has constructed two magnets made of superconducting tape based on rare earth elements, barium, and copper oxide (REBCO). The first magnet consists of two so-called pancake coils and reached a magnetic strength of 38.3 tesla. Tesla is the unit used to measure magnetic fields. For comparison, an ordinary refrigerator magnet has about 0.005 tesla, and a hospital MRI scanner typically has 1.5 to 3 tesla.

The second magnet consists of four pancake coils and reached 42.3 tesla. Both magnets have an inner diameter of only 3.1 millimeters.

Less material and lower energy consumption

Traditionally, steady magnetic fields above 40 tesla have only been achievable with large resistive magnets that consume megawatts of electrical power. The world record of 45.5 tesla was set by a hybrid magnet that requires more than 20 megawatts.

The magnets in the new study consume less than 1 watt. The coil volume is more than 1000 times smaller than that of the 45.5 tesla hybrid magnet. The new 38 tesla magnet uses 450 feet of superconducting tape. A previous magnet of the same type that reached 26 tesla required 3 miles of tape.

Specialized winding technique

To wind the superconducting tape around a diameter as small as 3.5 millimeters, the researchers developed a special technique. It enables a seamless connection between the coils outside the magnet bore, preserving the tape's current-carrying capacity. The coils were also soldered to enhance mechanical stability.

Measurements confirmed the field strength

The researchers performed nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiments inside the magnet's 3.1 millimeter bore to calibrate the field measurement. The measurements were carried out at 14 and 20 tesla using commercial spectrometers. The magnetic field was measured with a precision of a few parts per million.

The magnets can be used for NMR spectroscopy and materials characterization, where sample volumes are often in the millimeter range or smaller.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

👍 One prompt = one second in the microwave

Myths are spreading about AI and energy. The claim that AI is energy-intensive has gained widespread traction.

I have previously described, both here and in my book, how wrong this is.

Now more facts have emerged that confirm exactly that — AI is not energy-intensive.

In Hannah Ritchie's overview, I found a useful rule of thumb for describing how much energy AI uses.

Because a fundamental problem is that we don't know how much energy we use on almost anything, and therefore we have no way of judging what is a lot or a little.

The rule of thumb is this:
One prompt = one second in the microwave

Heating something in a 1000-watt microwave for one second uses just as much (or as little) electricity as a simple question or instruction to ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or any of the other AI models.

If you heat food for two minutes in the microwave, that corresponds to 120 prompts, which in turn corresponds to hours of AI chatting.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

💶 Solar power has saved Europe more than €100 million per day since March

Solar energy has saved Europe more than €100 million per day since 1 March, totaling more than €3 billion. Wind and solar power have reduced electricity prices by an average of 24% between 2023 and 2025. If gas prices remain high, total savings in 2026 could reach €67.5 billion.

Read more on Warp News

👩‍💻 Open source helps reach millions of unvaccinated children

Many countries have long collected vaccination data on paper or in Excel, causing delays and gaps. Now the University of Oslo and Gavi have built digital systems in 40 low- and middle-income countries. The result: hundreds of thousands of children vaccinated – in Mozambique and Kenya alone.

Read more on Warp News

🔋 Sodium-ion batteries ready for mass market - cheaper and more durable than lithium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion batteries are cheaper and more durable than lithium-ion batteries, but have not been possible to manufacture at scale until now. CATL says the manufacturing challenges are solved. The cells handle more than 15,000 cycles, and sodium is 1,000 times more abundant than lithium.

Read more on Warp News

⚰️ Deaths from indoor air pollution have fallen by 1.5 million since 1990

The annual number of premature deaths from indoor air pollution has dropped from around 4.5 million to just under 3 million per year. The decline is driven by more people gaining access to cleaner cooking fuels. Asia accounts for the largest reduction, with deaths cut roughly in half.

Read more on Warp News

⚡ Finland has cut power sector emissions by 80 percent in a decade

Finland's emissions from electricity generation fell from nearly 15 million tonnes to around 3 million tonnes per year between 2016 and 2025. Nuclear and wind power together account for 64.5 percent of generation. The last coal plant was shut down in April 2025.

Read more on Warp News

🤰 Teenage pregnancy rates have fallen sharply across the world

Globally, the number of births among teenage girls has fallen by over one-third since 2000. In Central and South Asia, the figure has dropped by over three-quarters during the same period. The decline is seen across all regions of the world, according to data from the UN.

Read more on Warp News

👍 New rule of thumb for AI energy use: One prompt = one second in the microwave

A simple AI query uses about 0.3 watt-hours of electricity. A microwave at around 1,000 watts uses about 0.28 watt-hours per second. So a simple AI query corresponds to roughly one second in the microwave.

Read more on Warp News

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Fewer births among girls aged 15 to 19

The number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19 has decreased across the world since 2000. The data has been compiled by the United Nations and published by Our World in Data.

At the global level, the figure has gone down from 66 births per 1,000 teenage girls in 2000 to 38 in 2024. That is a decrease of over one-third.

Large decline in Central and South Asia

The biggest change has taken place in Central and South Asia. There, the number of births per 1,000 teenage girls has fallen from 106 in 2000 to 25 in 2024. That is a decrease of over three-quarters.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, the figure has gone down from 129 to 93 births per 1,000 teenage girls during the same period. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the number has decreased from 83 to 50.

Lowest figures in Europe and North America

In Europe and North America, the number was already low in 2000, at 28 births per 1,000 teenage girls. Since then, the figure has continued to fall and now stands at 9 births per 1,000.

The youngest are also affected

The number of births has also fallen among girls aged 10 to 14. In this age group, the health risks of pregnancy are even greater.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

Structural changes in the power system

Finland has carried out three structural changes in recent years that together have made the electricity mix nearly 95 percent carbon-neutral. Fossil-fueled electricity generation from coal, oil, and natural gas has essentially been phased out and accounted for less than 4 percent of generation in 2024. Nuclear and wind power have increased substantially during the same period and together accounted for 64.5 percent of generation that year. The remainder comes from hydropower, biomass, biofuels, and waste-to-energy.

End of Russian gas and a new nuclear reactor

Finland's Climate Change Act entered into force in 2022. That same year, the country ended 50 years of gas imports from Russia, several years ahead of the EU's final plan from December 2025 to phase out all Russian natural gas.

The following year, in 2023, Finland's fifth nuclear reactor came online, completing the country's current fleet of reactors. Nuclear power now supplies roughly 40 percent of electricity generation. OL3, which came online in 2023, is Europe's largest nuclear reactor.

Wind power has grown tenfold

Wind power capacity in Finland has grown tenfold since 2015 and nearly tripled since 2020. Wind now accounts for more than a quarter of the country's electricity mix.

In April 2025, Salmisaari, the country's last active coal plant, was permanently shut down. The plant's operator is replacing coal with heat pumps, biomass, and waste heat, with the aim of reaching carbon neutrality by 2030.

Emissions fall as nuclear and renewables expand

According to Climate TRACE data, emissions from Finland's power sector have fallen by about 80 percent over the past decade. The decline has continued since the Climate Change Act took effect in 2022. Climate TRACE data show particularly large drops in both monthly and annual emissions in 2023 compared to 2022, as OL3 came online and wind power expanded.

Emissions data for the Salmisaari plant stop in March 2025, and no emissions were detected in April 2025, coinciding with the plant's closure.

Growth alongside emissions reductions

Finland's electricity production rose by 15.3 percent between 2021 and 2024. During the same period, the country's GDP was near an all-time high according to World Bank data, and the population grew by 1.6 percent. Even so, emissions from the power sector fell during the period, and per-capita electricity consumption dropped by 6 percent according to the IEA.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

Fewer people are dying from cooking smoke

Indoor air pollution causes nearly three million premature deaths each year, according to new estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. That is a clear decrease compared to 1990, when the figure stood at around 4.5 million per year. Statistics compiled by Our World in Data show that the number of deaths has fallen steadily since the early 2000s.

The pollution comes from solid fuels used for cooking and heating in the home. These include crop waste, dung, wood, and charcoal. When these fuels are burned indoors, they produce smoke that affects the health of those who breathe it in.

The link to disease

Breathing in smoke from solid fuels increases the risk of several serious illnesses. Cardiovascular disease, stroke, and certain types of cancer are among the conditions linked to indoor air pollution.

Asia accounts for the largest reduction

The chart from Our World in Data shows that Asia dominates both the overall burden and the decline. In the early 1990s, the number of deaths in Asia stood at around 3.5 million per year. By 2023, the figure had fallen to around 1.9 million. That is a reduction of roughly 1.6 million premature deaths per year in the region.

Africa is the second most affected region and has also seen a decline over the period, though the reduction there is less dramatic than in Asia. Europe, North and South America, and Oceania account for a very small share of the total number of deaths.

Cleaner fuels are the driving force

The downward trend is connected to more people gaining access to cleaner cooking fuels. When households switch from solid fuels to cleaner alternatives, exposure to harmful indoor smoke decreases. According to Our World in Data, further improvements in access to clean energy could prevent many more premature deaths.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

🤦‍♀️ Afraid of what makes us safer

A few weeks ago, the AI company Anthropic announced that they had created a new AI model called Mythos.

What Mythos can do is detect (and patch) security vulnerabilities in software. And it seems to be better at this than anything else currently available. For example, it found 271 vulnerabilities in the web browser Firefox.

Vulnerabilities that have now been fixed. It is harder to hack Firefox.

It is reported that Mythos has already found and fixed thousands of vulnerabilities in software. Our digital lives are becoming safer.

One might think that this is a good thing. But no!

Swedish Radio: New AI model sparks panic: “Cyber Armageddon”
Security News: The AI model Mythos raises concerns – expert on the risks
NYT: Anthropic’s New A.I. Model Sets Off Global Alarms
The Week: The fear over Anthropic’s new AI model Mythos

So we have a tool that makes the internet SAFER, and all the reporting is about how Mythos COULD make the internet less safe IF malicious actors used it.
But they don’t!

Mythos is being used to make the internet safer. De facto, it is used for that. Not “could be used,” but is used. Mythos is making the internet safer RIGHT NOW.

And all we are doing is panicking about an imagined alternative reality where the opposite is true.

What are people doing?

Additional day off on Tuesday

We're in our new city and house and getting everything sorted out. I had hoped to manage writing a PS article for Tuesday, but unfortunately that won't be possible. So I'll have to take another day from the day-off account.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

💡 Renewable electricity overtook coal as the world's largest power source in 2025

Solar and wind accounted for 99% of the growth in global electricity demand during 2025. Solar energy grew by 636 TWh – more electricity than all LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz can produce. For the first time, coal power accounts for less than a third of the world's electricity generation.

Read more on Warp News

📚 AI deciphers handwriting and makes 350,000 hidden books searchable – saves ten years of work

Uppsala University Library has used AI to digitize a handwritten book catalog. The work corresponds to more than ten years of manual labor and has been completed in a much shorter time. The material is now easier to find and use for researchers and the general public.

Read more on Warp News

🚰 Desalinated seawater could ease pressure on the Colorado River

San Diego is negotiating with Arizona and Nevada to sell water from North America's largest desalination plant. The agreement could supply roughly 500,000 people with drinking water annually. San Diego has reduced its water imports from 95 percent to 10 percent over three decades.

Read more on Warp News

🐴 World's only surviving wild horse species back from the brink of extinction

The Przewalski's horse was declared extinct in the wild during the 1970s and has been reintroduced through a conservation program launched in 1985. Przewalski's horse is the world's only surviving wild horse species and has an evolutionary history of 60 million years.

Read more on Warp News

💵 Study: Every generation has had higher income than the previous one

Every generation over the past six decades has had higher income than the previous one. American millennials aged 36–40 had a median household income 20 percent higher than Generation X. The increase happened without more work hours – earlier generations' growth was partly driven by increased work.

Read more on Warp News

🦾 Medra builds autonomous lab, robots controlled with everyday language

Medra has raised $52 million to build a 38,000-square-foot autonomous robot lab in the Bay Area. Scientists can direct the robots with everyday language, much like writing to ChatGPT. The robots work around the clock on drug research for partners such as Genentech and Addition Therapeutics.

Read more on Warp News

🚗 Electric vehicles outclass fossil fuel cars – sweep all categories at the 2026 World Car Awards

Consumers rank affordability, efficiency, quality, and safety as the most important factors in a car in 2026, areas where electric vehicles perform strongly. The BMW iX3 Neue Klasse won both Electric Vehicle of the Year and the Car of the Year award.

Read more on Warp News

🎙️ AI talk or master class?

I'm giving a lot of talks and master classes on AI in several different countries. Happy to come to your organization.

Learn more at mathiassundin.org.

The agreement

The agreement was announced on April 27 and builds on a broader framework agreement from November 2025, when HyperStrong committed to purchasing 200 GWh of battery cells from CATL during the period from 2026 to 2035. The cooperation covers research, product development, and project implementation.

Technical performance

CATL's sodium-ion cell for energy storage is a large-format product of more than 300 Ah with an energy density of approximately 160 Wh/kg. The system's energy conversion efficiency is 97 percent, and the lifespan exceeds 15,000 cycles at 80 percent capacity retention. The cell operates in temperatures from minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit to 158 degrees Fahrenheit, a wider range than most lithium-ion cells.

The cells have the same dimensions as CATL's lithium-ion products. This means they are compatible with existing supply chains and installations, which lowers adaptation costs and shortens the time from order to deployment.

Sodium as a raw material

Sodium-ion batteries use sodium instead of lithium as the charge carrier. Sodium is roughly 1,000 times more abundant in the Earth's crust than lithium and significantly cheaper to source. This makes the technology an alternative for applications where cost matters more than maximum energy density, particularly large-scale energy storage.

Market and competition

The global market for sodium-ion batteries is expected to reach $1.08 billion in 2026, with an annual growth rate of 15.8 percent. According to SNE Research, CATL controls 39.2 percent of the global market for EV batteries.

Competitor BYD has developed a third-generation sodium-ion platform that handles more than 10,000 cycles. However, no other sodium-ion battery manufacturer has secured an order anywhere close to 60 GWh.

CATL is working in parallel on sodium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. The company's chief scientist has confirmed mass production by the end of 2026, with the goal of reaching the same energy density as LFP batteries within three years, corresponding to a range of 370 miles. The first electric vehicle with a sodium-ion battery, the Changan Nevo A06, was presented in February.

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From paper to digital systems

When the collaboration between the HISP Centre and Gavi began in 2018, national immunisation programmes were beset by serious data problems. Fragmented systems were common. Many countries relied on paper or Excel for data collection, causing delays and quality problems in reporting. Only 7 of 54 Gavi-supported countries had integrated their vaccination data into national health information systems.

The collaboration has centred on DHIS2, an open-source platform used in more than 75 low-income countries as a national health management information system. Today, 40 Gavi-supported countries use DHIS2 as their main system for vaccination data, fully integrated with national health information systems.

Concrete results in several countries

The change has produced measurable results. Countries now have access to detailed and timely data on their vaccination programmes, supporting decision-making. Using DHIS2 for disease surveillance has enabled countries to detect and respond to disease outbreaks more quickly and effectively. Integration of facility-level vaccine stock data has improved supply chain efficiency and reduced shortages of vaccines and other health commodities.

In Mozambique, DHIS2 helped identify and reach 524,383 children who had never been vaccinated and who lived in often overlooked settlements. In Kenya, the system supported three national vaccination campaigns reaching 4.3 million children. Digital microplanning tools were deployed in 12 high-priority counties. This helped identify 127,000 previously unvaccinated children, achieve vaccination coverage of more than 95 percent in campaign areas, and reduce data reconciliation time from three weeks to four days.

Digital vaccination records reduce administrative work

An important change that followed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic was the shift from aggregated reporting to systems that maintain digital vaccination records for each individual child. Countries such as Rwanda, Liberia, Sri Lanka and Laos introduced such electronic immunisation registers during the pandemic.

Research from Exemplars in Global Health shows that Rwanda's use of a DHIS2-based register led to an 82 percent reduction in the monthly hours health workers spent on administrative tasks. The time spent creating lists of patients who had missed vaccinations fell by 93 percent, freeing up more time for direct patient care.

In Laos, a study found that the large majority of users were positive about the new system, finding it faster and easier to use than their previous one. The researchers noted that the decision to build on an existing platform, DHIS2, was highlighted by key informants as crucial to the early success and as an important driver of acceptance and uptake among healthcare workers.

DHIS2 during the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, countries shared DHIS2 solutions with one another, helping 60 countries quickly deploy digital tools for disease surveillance and vaccine delivery. This illustrates how open source enables the rapid spread of working solutions between countries without each country having to start from scratch.

Africa CDC Director General Jean Kaseya is among those calling on all African countries to digitalise health data using DHIS2 tracking programmes, to collect person-centred health data at the community level. The goal is to improve healthcare delivery, disease surveillance, and supply chain efficiency and resilience.

WALL-Y
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New figures for 2025

Hannah Ritchie has compiled data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the electricity use of data centres and AI during 2025. AI data centres consumed 155 TWh, which corresponds to about 0.5 percent of the world's electricity. Data centres as a whole, including those that run services such as Netflix, Google Maps, online banking, and messaging apps, consumed about 1.5 percent of the world's electricity. Data centres that are not AI-focused used more than twice as much electricity as AI data centres.

Since electricity is only part of total energy use, data centres account for less than 0.5 percent of final energy, and AI for less than 0.2 percent.

Energy use per query

A medium-sized text query to an AI model uses about 0.05 watt-hours for the graphics processors, which totals around 0.1 watt-hours. A larger text query uses about 0.3 watt-hours for the graphics processors, or up to 0.6 watt-hours in total.

Google has reported 0.24 watt-hours per text query to Gemini. For ChatGPT, the figure 0.34 watt-hours per query has been mentioned. Asking ten simple questions to a chatbot corresponds to about ten seconds in the microwave.

A hundred queries a day produces a footprint of about 30 watt-hours. That equals the electricity an average American uses in just over a minute, or an average European in two and a half minutes.

More complex tasks use more energy

Agent-based AI tools, which can plan and carry out tasks independently, use more energy per task. Such a task can take 15 minutes or more to complete and involves 4 to 6 sequential calls. A user who runs 24 agent-based queries per day consumes about 2.4 kilowatt-hours, equivalent to one cycle of a tumble dryer or driving an electric car five miles.

Geographically concentrated demand

Demand for data centres is not evenly distributed around the world. In the US, 5 percent of electricity is used for data centres, of which about 2 percent goes to AI data centres. In Europe, the figure is 1.6 percent, but in Ireland data centres account for more than 20 percent of electricity consumption. In the state of Virginia in the US, data centres account for more than a quarter of electricity consumption.

Forecasts to 2030

The IEA presents four scenarios for data centre electricity consumption. In the base case, global electricity consumption reaches 945 TWh in 2030. The high and low scenarios fall within about 100 TWh of this figure. The differences between the scenarios are small because much of the build-out is already planned. It takes several years to build a data centre.

In the base case, data centres grow to 3 percent of global electricity consumption by 2030. AI data centres then consume about the same amount as non-AI data centres. The IEA estimates that data centres account for about 9 percent of the growth in global electricity demand over the next five years.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
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Lower electricity prices thanks to wind and solar

A new report from the advocacy group Positive Money has analyzed the electricity markets in 19 European countries. The report shows that the expansion of renewable energy has reduced electricity prices by an average of 24.2 percent between 2023 and 2025. The impact on prices grows stronger as more renewable energy is connected to the grid.

According to the report, renewable energy displaces more expensive fossil fuel generation from the electricity mix. This pushes down wholesale electricity prices.

Spain has doubled its capacity

Since 2019, Spain has doubled its wind and solar capacity. The country has added more than 40 GW, more than any other EU country except Germany. The German electricity market is twice the size of the Spanish one.

The expansion has made the Spanish electricity price significantly less affected by the price of gas. The price of gas rose by 55 percent the day after the war with Iran began and has continued to fluctuate.

Record for British wind power

In the United Kingdom, wind power set a new record on 26 March. British wind power generation reached 23,880 megawatts. That is enough to supply 23 million homes with electricity.

Solar energy saves billions

An analysis from SolarPower Europe shows that solar energy has saved Europe more than €100 million per day since 1 March. Total savings amount to more than €3 billion.

If gas prices remain high, total savings in 2026 could reach €67.5 billion, according to experts.

Two policy conclusions

Positive Money highlights two conclusions for policy. In countries with limited wind and solar capacity, further expansion is the easiest way to reduce wholesale electricity prices.

In countries that already have large wind and solar capacity, system flexibility should be built out. This includes investments in batteries to store surplus electricity, encouraging rooftop solar, and introducing variable electricity tariffs that balance supply and demand.

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🤦‍♀️ Afraid of what makes us safer

A few weeks ago, the AI company Anthropic announced that they had created a new AI model called Mythos.

What Mythos can do is detect (and patch) security vulnerabilities in software. And it seems to be better at this than anything else currently available. For example, it found 271 vulnerabilities in the web browser Firefox.

Vulnerabilities that have now been fixed. It is harder to hack Firefox.

It is reported that Mythos has already found and fixed thousands of vulnerabilities in software. Our digital lives are becoming safer.

One might think that this is a good thing. But no!

Swedish Radio: New AI model sparks panic: “Cyber Armageddon”
Security News: The AI model Mythos raises concerns – expert on the risks
NYT: Anthropic’s New A.I. Model Sets Off Global Alarms
The Week: The fear over Anthropic’s new AI model Mythos

So we have a tool that makes the internet SAFER, and all the reporting is about how Mythos COULD make the internet less safe IF malicious actors used it.
But they don’t!

Mythos is being used to make the internet safer. De facto, it is used for that. Not “could be used,” but is used. Mythos is making the internet safer RIGHT NOW.

And all we are doing is panicking about an imagined alternative reality where the opposite is true.

What are people doing?

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

💡 Renewable electricity overtook coal as the world's largest power source in 2025

Solar and wind accounted for 99% of the growth in global electricity demand during 2025. Solar energy grew by 636 TWh – more electricity than all LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz can produce. For the first time, coal power accounts for less than a third of the world's electricity generation.

Read more on Warp News

📚 AI deciphers handwriting and makes 350,000 hidden books searchable – saves ten years of work

Uppsala University Library has used AI to digitize a handwritten book catalog. The work corresponds to more than ten years of manual labor and has been completed in a much shorter time. The material is now easier to find and use for researchers and the general public.

Read more on Warp News

🚰 Desalinated seawater could ease pressure on the Colorado River

San Diego is negotiating with Arizona and Nevada to sell water from North America's largest desalination plant. The agreement could supply roughly 500,000 people with drinking water annually. San Diego has reduced its water imports from 95 percent to 10 percent over three decades.

Read more on Warp News

🐴 World's only surviving wild horse species back from the brink of extinction

The Przewalski's horse was declared extinct in the wild during the 1970s and has been reintroduced through a conservation program launched in 1985. Przewalski's horse is the world's only surviving wild horse species and has an evolutionary history of 60 million years.

Read more on Warp News

💵 Study: Every generation has had higher income than the previous one

Every generation over the past six decades has had higher income than the previous one. American millennials aged 36–40 had a median household income 20 percent higher than Generation X. The increase happened without more work hours – earlier generations' growth was partly driven by increased work.

Read more on Warp News

🦾 Medra builds autonomous lab, robots controlled with everyday language

Medra has raised $52 million to build a 38,000-square-foot autonomous robot lab in the Bay Area. Scientists can direct the robots with everyday language, much like writing to ChatGPT. The robots work around the clock on drug research for partners such as Genentech and Addition Therapeutics.

Read more on Warp News

🚗 Electric vehicles outclass fossil fuel cars – sweep all categories at the 2026 World Car Awards

Consumers rank affordability, efficiency, quality, and safety as the most important factors in a car in 2026, areas where electric vehicles perform strongly. The BMW iX3 Neue Klasse won both Electric Vehicle of the Year and the Car of the Year award.

Read more on Warp News

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At this year's World Car Awards, electric vehicles took home the prizes in every category. A panel of journalists from around the world votes each year on finalists and winners in each category. The test drives take place in California in the fall, while the awards ceremony itself is held in New York in the spring, in connection with the New York Auto Show. To be eligible to compete, the cars must be sold in more than one market.

BMW iX3 took the top prize

The BMW iX3 Neue Klasse won both World Electric Vehicle and the overall World Car award for 2026. BMW's Chairman Oliver Zipse was also named World Car Person of the Year. The model is the result of a global development effort in which different parts of the world collaborated to create the car.

Mazda and Nio recognized for design and urban car

The Mazda EZ-6/6e, which is available as both a plug-in hybrid and a fully electric vehicle, won World Car Design 2026. The design was originally developed for the Chinese market and has more recently been introduced in Europe and Australia.

The Nio Firefly was named World Urban Car 2026. The premium subcompact features rear-wheel drive, quality materials, and modern technology, and offers more interior space than its exterior dimensions suggest.

Hyundai and Lucid recognized in performance and luxury

The Hyundai IONIQ 6 N won World Performance Car 2026. The car builds on the software-defined vehicle concept and can be customized to driver preferences and track conditions. Artificial sounds and simulated shift points provide feedback on what the motors are doing, and the features can be turned off. The award follows the IONIQ 5 N winning the same category the previous year.

The Lucid Gravity won World Luxury Car 2026. The car is manufactured in Saudi Arabia and designed in California. It offers a quiet and smooth ride along with spacious interior and high-quality materials.

Consumers prioritize affordability

Alongside the awards, the organization also released research on what consumers are looking for most in a car in 2026. The four most important factors are affordability, efficiency, quality, and safety. Efficiency makes cars cheaper to operate, quality makes them cheaper to maintain, and active safety can prevent costly accidents.

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Physical AI runs the experiments

Medra develops software that lets robots carry out biological experiments on their own. Scientists can give the robots instructions in everyday language, much like writing to a chatbot. The robots then perform the tasks and log every detail: the angle of the pipette, how deep it dips into the well, the time between adding reagents, and the mixing speed.

All the data is fed into what the company calls a vision-language-lab-action model. The system can reason about what happened in an experiment and propose adjustments for the next run. The software is a combination of commercial language models and in-house models. The AI system has learned to operate more than 75 percent of the instruments scientists use today.

$63 million in total funding

The latest funding round of $52 million was led by Human Capital and brings Medra's total funding to $63 million. The round closed just weeks after the company began talking publicly about its work in September.

CEO Michelle Lee, who holds a doctorate in robotics from Stanford, left a planned position at New York University in 2022 to start Medra. The company operates out of a space in San Francisco's Mission district, where robotic arms on steel tables handle cells and lab chemicals.

Five systems already deployed with customers

Medra began shipping systems toward the end of last year and now has five installations with customers across the United States. The company only works with paying biopharma partners and avoids unpaid pilot projects. In addition to Genentech, a subsidiary of Roche, Medra collaborates with Addition Therapeutics on gene editing.

The same core hardware can handle gene editing, protein engineering, immunology, and antibody work by swapping in different instruments and programming. The robots can run experiments overnight and on weekends, alerting customers if a sensor detects a problem.

The lab will produce data for AI models

The new lab, called Medra Lab 001, was built in under 90 days and will house hundreds of robots working around the clock. Lee argues that AI for science lacks the right kind of data. She compares it with Google DeepMind's AlphaFold2, which won a Nobel Prize and was trained on a few terabytes of experimental data collected over many years. OpenAI's O1 model may have been trained on data measured in petabytes. At the current pace, it would take about 13,000 years to reach that scale through experimental biology alone.

Pharmaceutical companies usually only document the final outcome of a study, not all the small attempts and mistakes that led to the right method. Medra logs every step, including failed experiments, so that the models can reason about why things worked or didn't.

After two decades of lab automation, still only about 5 percent of lab instruments are automated, and much of the work has been outsourced overseas. Medra focuses on early discovery research, before a drug candidate moves into clinical trials, which means the systems are not under direct FDA oversight.

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A new study published in the journal Demography has followed five generations of Americans from 1963 to 2023 and compared their incomes at ages 36–40. Researchers Kevin Corinth at the American Enterprise Institute and Jeff Larrimore at the Federal Reserve Board used data from the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement.

Income has risen in every generation

Measured as disposable household income after taxes and transfers, the Silent Generation had 36 percent higher income than the Greatest Generation at the same age. Baby boomers were 26 percent above the Silent Generation. Generation X had 16 percent higher income than baby boomers, and millennials came in 20 percent above Generation X.

Lower income groups have also moved forward. At the 25th percentile, household income for millennials rose by 21 percent compared with Generation X, a faster increase than what the median shows.

The increase happens without more work hours

For baby boomers, around 42 percent of the income growth was explained by working more hours than the previous generation, mainly because women's labor force participation rose sharply. Women in the Silent Generation and among baby boomers worked roughly 44–47 percent more hours than the previous generation.

For Generation X and millennials, the number of work hours has leveled off. Women in these generations worked only 1–4 percent more than the previous generation. The entire income increase for millennials therefore comes from higher productivity, not from more time at work.

Education costs are offset by higher income

The share of Americans with a bachelor's degree at ages 36–40 rose from 27 percent among baby boomers to 43 percent among millennials. The higher net cost of four years of higher education for millennials compared with Generation X corresponds to less than three years of income growth. Between ages 25 and 42, a millennial with median income earned about 71,000 dollars more than a corresponding person in Generation X.

The gap between groups is narrowing

The income gap between Black and white Americans has narrowed across generations. Black members of the Greatest Generation had household incomes 41 percent below those of white Americans. For millennials, the difference is 22 percent.

Wealth has also grown

At ages 36–40, millennials had on average 95,000 dollars more in net worth than Generation X. The share of 35–44-year-olds who own stocks rose from 39 percent in 1989 to 64 percent in 2022.

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From extinct to self-sustaining herds

Przewalski's horse is the world's only surviving wild horse species and has an evolutionary history of 60 million years. The species disappeared from the wild during the 1970s due to poaching and habitat loss. In 1985, China launched the "Wild Horse Return" program, which reintroduced the species from abroad and established breeding bases in the country.

Four decades later, the work has moved the horses from captive breeding to self-sustaining herds in northwestern China. The figures presented at the 40th anniversary show that China's population now exceeds 900 individuals.

The Dunhuang reserve a key location

A decisive part of the rewilding has taken place at the Dunhuang West Lake National Nature Reserve in Gansu province. Zhang Qiangwei, director of the Gansu Endangered Animal Protection Center in the city of Wuwei, states that 56 trained horses were released into the reserve between 2010 and 2025. The area has unfrozen springs and snow-free grasslands, which has allowed the horses to adapt.

Wang Hongjun, head of the center's wildlife management department, says the center currently cares for 45 individuals, of which one quarter are sub-adults. Around six foals are expected during 2026. The goal is to build a healthy population with stable generational succession.

Successful transport over 640 miles

The program reached a technical peak last year with China's largest long-distance relocation of the species. The operation was led by professor Hu Defu of Beijing Forestry University and transported 28 horses 640 miles from the center in Wuwei to the reserve in Dunhuang. The method, called "loose transport," differs from traditional transport where the animals are anesthetized and placed in crates, which often results in fatalities. The 2025 operation was carried out without a single horse dying.

In total, the center has bred, relocated and released more than 300 horses. By September last year, the reserve's population had passed 200 individuals, divided into 28 herds.

Modernized facilities for growth

To support the growing population, the center has expanded its infrastructure. This includes a breeding base of 16.5 acres, a forage storage facility of 8,600 square feet, automated watering systems and high-definition monitoring networks. Wang says that improved facilities, monitoring, nutrition and management of genetic diversity have laid a solid foundation for the population.

Zhao Xumao, a professor at Lanzhou University's College of Ecology, says the successful breeding and reintroduction demonstrate the country's resolve to protect biodiversity and promote harmony between humans and nature.

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🏗️ Less and less productive

When I was in Seattle last year to give a talk on AI at the Nordic Museum, I met Jonas Jonsson.

He had a very Swedish name, but was clearly most comfortable speaking English. So I assumed his family had emigrated to the US, but when I asked where he lived, he answered Stockholm, Sweden.

I couldn’t quite make sense of it.

Back in Stockholm, he got in touch after reading my book and wanted to talk about AI. We did—but I also became interested in a problem he had set out to tackle.

Jonas works in real estate, and he told me that the construction industry has been becoming less productive for decades. Each year, you get slightly less built for the same amount of money.

Most other industries are moving in the opposite direction, becoming more efficient.

I’ve interviewed Jonas about this and visited one of his construction sites to understand how he plans to crack this problem—so we can get cheaper and better housing in less time.

It turns out he has a background that makes him particularly well suited for exactly that. And I also got to the bottom of the small mystery about his language.

Taking a day off

This week we have moved and are getting settled into a new house. I am therefore taking a day off next Tuesday, so no Premium Supporter article will be sent out that day.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Premium Supporter content

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🏗️ The tech builder set to solve the construction industry’s century-old problem

The construction industry has for a long time become less productive each year. We get less housing for the money. That is the problem that Jonas Jonsson and his company ByggVesta are now setting out to solve.

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

💉 New vaccine reduced Lyme disease cases by 70 percent in clinical trial

Pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Valneva report that their Lyme disease vaccine LB6V reduced the number of disease cases by around 70 percent compared with placebo. It would become the first approved Lyme disease vaccine for humans in nearly three decades.

Read more on Warp News

🚧 The world's first geothermal plant with 10 to 100 times higher output per well is now being built

Project Obsidian will be the world's first geothermal power plant to extract energy from rock at 300 to 500 degrees Celsius. The millimeter wave drilling technique allows drilling to reach depths and temperatures that conventional drills cannot handle.

Read more on Warp News

🗳️ Democracy strengthened or did not deteriorate in three quarters of the world's countries during 2025

Nearly three quarters of the world's countries received higher or unchanged scores in the 2025 democracy index. Latin America and the Caribbean broke a nine-year decline and improved their results. The global index rose by 0.02 points, one of the largest increases since 2012.

Read more on Warp News

🌳 Rainforest wildlife returns to abandoned farmland within 30 years

A study from Ecuador shows that biodiversity in tropical rainforest recovers to more than 90 percent of its original level within three decades. Three-quarters of the animal and plant species typical of untouched primary forest return to abandoned agricultural land during the same period.

Read more on Warp News

📈 Simon Abundance Index 2026: Access to basic commodities has increased by more than 500 percent since 1980

The Simon Abundance Index (SAI) measures the relationship between population and resource abundance. It rose from 100 in 1980 to 636.4 in 2025, an increase of 536.4 percent. While the world's population grew by 85 percent, personal resource abundance increased by 244 percent.

Read more on Warp News

🧫 Bacteria swim using a tiny electric motor that spins several hundred times per second

Researchers have now mapped every part of the flagellar motor that bacteria use to swim, after more than 50 years of research. The motor spins several hundred revolutions per second and is powered by protons streaming into the cell at more than 2,000 per second.

Read more on Warp News

🎙️ AI talk or master class?

I'm giving a lot of talks and master classes on AI in several different countries. Happy to come to your organization.

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As the Colorado River declines, the states of Arizona and Nevada are looking for new water sources. The solution may be the ocean off the California coast. Both states are negotiating with the San Diego County Water Authority to gain access to fresh water from the desalination plant in Carlsbad, which is the largest in North America.

How the agreement works

No water is physically transported between the states. Instead, it is about exchanging rights to different water sources. Arizona and Nevada would finance a portion of the 56,000 acre-feet of water the desalination plant produces each year. In exchange, the states would gain access to San Diego's share of the Colorado River. The agreement could supply around 500,000 people with water.

John Entsminger, general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority, plans to sign an initial agreement together with Arizona's water authority.

San Diego built its own independence

During a drought that ended in 1992, San Diego lost a third of its water allocation. At the time, the city imported nearly all of its water. Over the following three decades, the water authority invested billions of dollars to become self-sufficient. It raised a dam wall to double storage capacity, built the desalination plant, and acquired rights to conserved water from a farming district.

The result is that San Diego reduced its water imports from 95 percent to 10 percent. At the same time, residents of the city have cut their water consumption by nearly 50 percent over the past quarter century. This has given the city a water surplus that can now be sold on.

More projects underway

Nevada and Arizona are also partnering with the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California to build a facility in Los Angeles County. It will be able to treat up to 165,000 acre-feet of wastewater per year, enough for a city of 1.5 million residents. Utah has expressed interest in investing in more desalination plants along the Pacific coast.

In Santa Monica Bay, the Las Virgenes Municipal Water District and the company OceanWell are testing a new technology. Pods the size of school buses are lowered more than 1,200 feet below the ocean surface to desalinate water directly on the seabed. The technology reduces both costs and environmental impact compared with desalination on land.

San Diego also recycles wastewater under the name Pure Water San Diego. The recycled water is already being used by local breweries, including AleSmith Brewing Co., which has used it in a lager called Re:Beer.

Arizona's water consumers have already cut their consumption by nearly a third.

WALL-Y
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Uppsala University Library has digitized a handwritten catalog and made 350,000 holdings records searchable in the Swedish national library catalog Libris. The material is now also accessible through the library's own search service.

How the technology works

The library has used AI models to transcribe the handwritten catalog, known as "Catalog 62," and extract digital metadata about authors and titles. The AI model was trained to recognize different regions of the catalog containing important metadata and to interpret the handwritten text.

The metadata was then matched with existing information in Libris. Holdings records were automatically added through APIs. The result is an XML file with the extracted metadata divided by region.

Ten years of work in a short time

Karin Byström, project manager for the initiative, says the work effort corresponds to more than ten years of manual labor and that it would not have been possible to do by hand. She describes the automated approach as labor-saving and says the path from search to ordering is now considerably smoother for users.

Collaboration between university libraries

Uppsala University Library is collaborating with the university libraries in Lund and Gothenburg, which are working in parallel on similar projects for their older catalogs. Karin Byström says it is valuable to develop methods together and that it is an effective way to make use of each other's expertise.

Better conditions for research

Chief Librarian Johanna Hansson says the initiative creates better conditions for research by making the collections more visible and accessible. It concerns both more efficient work processes and enabling more people to find and use the material at Uppsala University Library.

Next step

The work continues during autumn 2026 with the creation of new bibliographic records for books that are not yet in Libris. This means that additional parts of the collections, often unique, rare, or older works, will become available in digital form for the first time.

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Renewable energy overtook coal as the world's largest source of electricity generation during 2025, according to a new report from the think tank Ember. It is the first time since 1919 that coal's share of the electricity mix is lower than that of renewable sources. Back then, however, global electricity demand was 300 times smaller than today, and renewables consisted mainly of hydropower.

Solar energy drives the development

Solar power grew by 636 terawatt-hours during 2025, an increase of 30 percent compared to the previous year. That is double the entire annual electricity consumption of the United Kingdom, and 33 percent higher than the previous record of 479 terawatt-hours set in 2024. Solar power alone met 75 percent of the growth in global electricity demand during the year.

Installed solar capacity grew by a record 647 gigawatts during 2025. It was the fourth consecutive year that solar power accounted for the largest absolute increase of any single electricity source.

Wind power increased by 205 terawatt-hours, equivalent to 8.2 percent. Nuclear power rose by 35 terawatt-hours to a historic peak of 2,812 terawatt-hours, driven by new reactors in China and increased production in France and Japan.

Fossil electricity generation declines structurally

Fossil electricity generation fell by 0.2 percent during 2025. It is the first time a decline has occurred as a result of a structural shift toward clean energy rather than economic crises or other one-off events. Previous declines have occurred in connection with the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.

Coal power fell by 63 terawatt-hours, or 0.6 percent, and now accounts for less than a third of the world's electricity generation. Gas power increased marginally by 36 terawatt-hours to 6,919 terawatt-hours.

In both China and India, fossil electricity generation fell at the same time – by 56 and 52 terawatt-hours respectively – thanks to rapid expansion of clean electricity generation. Together the two countries accounted for 42 percent of the world's fossil electricity generation during the year.

The share of solar and wind has doubled

The share of solar and wind power in the global electricity mix has increased by more than 10 percentage points over ten years, from 23 percent to 33.8 percent. During the same period, coal's share has dropped from 38.7 percent to 33.0 percent. 81 percent of all growth in solar and wind since the year 2000 has occurred during the past decade.

Ember calculates that without the growth of solar and wind power since the year 2000, fossil electricity generation would have been 30 percent higher during 2025, and emissions 28 percent higher, equivalent to an additional 4,065 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year.

Lower emissions per kilowatt-hour

Global electricity demand increased by 2.8 percent during 2025, equivalent to 849 terawatt-hours. Despite the increase, emissions from the electricity sector fell slightly. The average kilowatt-hour produced 458 grams of carbon dioxide equivalents, 2.7 percent less than in 2024 and 16 percent less than in 2005.

Electric vehicles and battery storage are growing rapidly

Electric vehicles' share of the world's new car sales passed 25 percent during 2025. The global electric vehicle fleet replaced 1.8 million barrels of oil per day, of which new electric vehicles sold during 2025 accounted for 0.5 million barrels per day. The reduced oil use from the electrification of the transport sector corresponds to emission reductions of about 80 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year, more than the entire annual emissions from the United Kingdom's electricity sector.

The price of battery packs for stationary storage fell to a record low of 70 dollars per kilowatt-hour during 2025, a drop of 45 percent from the previous year. Global battery storage capacity increased by 247 gigawatt-hours, 46 percent more than in 2024. That is enough to shift about 14 percent of daily solar power generation to other hours of the day.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

🏗️ Less and less productive

When I was in Seattle last year to give a talk on AI at the Nordic Museum, I met Jonas Jonsson.

He had a very Swedish name, but was clearly most comfortable speaking English. So I assumed his family had emigrated to the US, but when I asked where he lived, he answered Stockholm, Sweden.

I couldn’t quite make sense of it.

Back in Stockholm, he got in touch after reading my book and wanted to talk about AI. We did—but I also became interested in a problem he had set out to tackle.

Jonas works in real estate, and he told me that the construction industry has been becoming less productive for decades. Each year, you get slightly less built for the same amount of money.

Most other industries are moving in the opposite direction, becoming more efficient.

I’ve interviewed Jonas about this and visited one of his construction sites to understand how he plans to crack this problem—so we can get cheaper and better housing in less time.

It turns out he has a background that makes him particularly well suited for exactly that. And I also got to the bottom of the small mystery about his language.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Premium Supporter content

Open and free for everyone, thanks to the support of our paying members, Premium Supporters.

🏗️ The tech builder set to solve the construction industry’s century-old problem

The construction industry has for a long time become less productive each year. We get less housing for the money. That is the problem that Jonas Jonsson and his company ByggVesta are now setting out to solve.

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

💉 New vaccine reduced Lyme disease cases by 70 percent in clinical trial

Pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Valneva report that their Lyme disease vaccine LB6V reduced the number of disease cases by around 70 percent compared with placebo. It would become the first approved Lyme disease vaccine for humans in nearly three decades.

Read more on Warp News

🚧 The world's first geothermal plant with 10 to 100 times higher output per well is now being built

Project Obsidian will be the world's first geothermal power plant to extract energy from rock at 300 to 500 degrees Celsius. The millimeter wave drilling technique allows drilling to reach depths and temperatures that conventional drills cannot handle.

Read more on Warp News

🗳️ Democracy strengthened or did not deteriorate in three quarters of the world's countries during 2025

Nearly three quarters of the world's countries received higher or unchanged scores in the 2025 democracy index. Latin America and the Caribbean broke a nine-year decline and improved their results. The global index rose by 0.02 points, one of the largest increases since 2012.

Read more on Warp News

🌳 Rainforest wildlife returns to abandoned farmland within 30 years

A study from Ecuador shows that biodiversity in tropical rainforest recovers to more than 90 percent of its original level within three decades. Three-quarters of the animal and plant species typical of untouched primary forest return to abandoned agricultural land during the same period.

Read more on Warp News

📈 Simon Abundance Index 2026: Access to basic commodities has increased by more than 500 percent since 1980

The Simon Abundance Index (SAI) measures the relationship between population and resource abundance. It rose from 100 in 1980 to 636.4 in 2025, an increase of 536.4 percent. While the world's population grew by 85 percent, personal resource abundance increased by 244 percent.

Read more on Warp News

🧫 Bacteria swim using a tiny electric motor that spins several hundred times per second

Researchers have now mapped every part of the flagellar motor that bacteria use to swim, after more than 50 years of research. The motor spins several hundred revolutions per second and is powered by protons streaming into the cell at more than 2,000 per second.

Read more on Warp News

✉️ Get a dose of fact-based, free, optimism once a week

Every week, we send out a free newsletter with fact-based, optimistic news about technology, science, and human progress.

If you're not a subscriber yet, you are welcome to become one!

If you like this newsletter, please forward it to a friend and ask them to subscribe. It's free and arrives once a week.

🎤 Talk on AI

Let me help your organization level up on AI.

Read more at mathiassundin.org.

The British analysis organization EIU has tracked the development of democracy around the world since 2006. The latest update of its democracy index showed that the long decline may be coming to a halt. Nearly three quarters of the 167 countries included in the study received either higher or unchanged scores compared to the previous year.

The Nordics dominated the top

EIU rates countries on a scale from zero to ten and sorts them into four categories: full democracies, flawed democracies, hybrid regimes, and authoritarian regimes. Norway retained first place as the world's most democratic country, a position it has held for 16 years. New Zealand came in second, followed by the other Nordic countries in positions three through six. Denmark climbed four places to third, helped in part by how the government handled issues surrounding Greenland, which raised its score for how well the state functions.

Latin America turned the trend around

The region that improved the most was Latin America and the Caribbean. After nine years of decline, scores rose in more than half of the region's countries. Higher political participation was an important driver behind the upturn. A similar development may be underway in other parts of the world as well. Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have young populations, and protests in Nepal, Kenya, and Madagascar drew large crowds into political engagement during the year.

High voter turnout in several countries

Several countries recorded unusually high voter turnout during the year. Canada climbed five places to ninth after its highest voter turnout in over 30 years. Romania moved up from a hybrid regime to a flawed democracy, partly thanks to strong voter turnout. Most of the improvements in the 2025 index occurred in the middle of the rankings, which indicated that the development was broad rather than concentrated in individual countries.

WALL-Y
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There he was thrown straight into Swedish preschool, which gave him a strong sense of belonging neither to the Swedish kids nor to the foreign-born ones.

The move from the American west coast to Östergötland happened because his family had bought the real estate company ByggVesta, and his father, Lars Jonsson, took over as CEO.

It only ended up being a couple of years in Sweden then, but since last year he's back again, and this time he's the one who is the new CEO of ByggVesta. He brought his family with him, where the oldest daughter had just turned five.

The first round in Sweden was tough, but it shaped him.

"I think what I learned was that you don't always have to fit in," he says now.

As a teenager in the US, he understood that the bubble that decides what's popular in a school class isn't the whole world.

"That mental picture that this is just a little bubble probably gave me some confidence not to always follow the crowd and do the same thing as my group did."

In construction, you get less for more

That trait is one he'll need plenty of if he's going to solve the problem he's now taking on. Because the construction industry has been getting less productive for a long time.

Since 1965, employees in the American construction industry have actually become 0.6 percent less efficient with every passing year. At the same time, the rest of society has become 1.6 percent more productive each year.

In 2020, the average construction worker produced 40 percent less value compared to 1970 (after subtracting what the building materials themselves cost). In other words, it takes much more working time today to get the same thing built.

In Sweden it's almost as bad. According to a government inquiry, efficiency on Swedish construction sites has stood still since the year 2000.

That means you get about the same amount built in a workday today as you did over twenty years ago. Meanwhile, the rest of Swedish companies have pulled away significantly and become around 50 percent better at getting more done in the same working hours.

The report explains the weak productivity with a combination of complicated regulations, low digitalization, skill shortages, poor coordination, and the fact that construction has been industrialized to too small a degree.

A built-in problem

One built-in difficulty is the unique character of each project. Every project often differs in location, design, architecture, and choice of materials, which makes standardization and learning harder.

It's the same reason that really large construction projects often run far over both budget and timeline. The same applies to other kinds of big projects beyond construction, like the Olympic Games or IT.

According to professor Bent Flyvbjerg, who has compiled large projects in a database, nuclear waste storage, the Olympics, nuclear power, water dams, and IT are the worst when it comes to going over budget.

All in all, only a meager 0.5 percent of all large projects come in on schedule or better.

Buildings come in at place 8, on average 62 percent over budget.

But there's one exciting exception on the list: solar energy installations.

There the average cost overrun is only one percent.

The secret is modularity.

You start your project with one module, then add an identical one, then another identical one, and continue like that until the project is done. When every step looks like the one before it, there are few surprises along the way.

So a solar cell becomes a solar panel, which becomes a group of solar panels, which becomes a solar park.

The modules are manufactured in a factory, and production is standardized in a controlled environment and over time becomes faster, better, and cheaper.

Can you build houses the same way?

That's how Jonas Jonsson and ByggVesta intend to tackle the construction industry's productivity slide.

In a joint venture with K-Fastigheter, they're creating twelve modules. These modules aren't just a wall or a floor — they're meant to contain everything from plumbing to fiber cables and electronics, and even come pre-painted or wallpapered.

All of that happens in a factory, where processes can be standardized and factors like the weather don't interfere.

Then another problem arises.

"The problem is that you can't build the same house ten times over. Every house is different," says Jonas. "The size of the lot is different. The height of the building is different. The neighbors are different. The conditions of the site are different."

The modules have to be repeatable, but still possible to tailor.

The solution? Lego!

Like Lego, the twelve modules can be combined in a large number of ways.

Then yet another problem arises (the problems never seem to end — maybe that's why no one has done this before). Taking into account the unique conditions of the site and the building, and finding the right combination of the twelve modules, quickly becomes enormously complex. Many experts need to put in a lot of time, which of course gets expensive, which in turn undermines the whole point of building more efficiently.

The solution? AI!

AI, and computers in general, excel at handling a large number of variables and can test an extremely large number of solutions much faster than humans can. That's of course not the whole solution, but it's a key component.

This is where Jonas Jonsson's background may give him an advantage. Despite the family's two real estate companies (one in the US, one in Sweden), he has spent most of his career in the tech industry.

After studying in California, he became the first employee at TaskUs. A company that today is publicly traded and has 65,000 people on its payroll. Inspired by that, he founded his own tech company, which later became System73, specialized in optimizing video distribution.

After he sold the company in 2017, life took an unexpected turn.

His father drew him into a project at the family's American real estate company. It was only supposed to be a fun thing to do before he came up with something new on his own.

"But I fell in love with building something physical, something that — unlike software — still exists a hundred years from now," he says.

He stayed on and took over as CEO of the American company, before moving to Sweden with his family last year.

That too started as a short-term assignment, but once again he discovered something new that made him stay.

"I really fell in love with Stockholm. I think Sweden, especially when you have kids, is one of the best places I've been," he says, and continues.

"In many other places where I've lived — I lived in Asia for a while — there's more of a culture where someone else raises your children. Here in Sweden, people really take on the responsibility of raising their kids themselves. Even people who are very busy and have important jobs prioritize it in their lives and set aside time to raise their children. I could really relate to those values."

Modules aren't new, but maybe it can succeed now?

Building in modules is of course nothing new. Far from it.

In Sweden we have the cautionary example of the Million Programme, carried out in the 1960s and 1970s. Building the same thing everywhere drove costs down, but we paid the price in ugly, square concrete buildings.

If you can't create variation with modules, that's where you end up. As mentioned, the trick is to be able to vary the modules, so that not everything looks the same.

I follow Jonas out to one of their ongoing construction sites.

In an area they call Blick, feverish work is underway to complete the first 400 of a total of 800 new apartments. The target group is students and researchers.

Since the elevator isn't working yet, we walk six flights up to get the view from the rooftop terrace. Barely out of breath, I look down at the construction site from above.

Jonas and project manager Axel Ekström point out the modules that have been lifted into place. Because here you can see the development work in practice. In one building they have modules with fewer parts embedded, and in another they've gone further and embedded more parts.

From up here it also becomes clear what organized chaos a construction site is. They explain how the unusually cold winter in Stockholm delayed certain work. In that case, you just have to adapt.

But not only that — thousands of small and large decisions have to fall into place, and things have to arrive at the right time. They describe how much time it took to get the right shade of green so that different parts would match each other. The doors aren't delivered by the same company that paints the walls, but the color has to be exactly the same.

The more of this process that can be moved earlier in the chain and inside a factory, the more efficiently it will be possible to build.

To be able to push work earlier in the process, AI will be a help.

"One of the things that has impressed me most is how AI shrinks the distance between idea and reality," says Jonas.

Previously, a number of experts and a long process were required, which of course costs money. Now significantly fewer people can do the same thing faster.

"If we can connect this with industrial building, I think it creates more creativity and freedom. Not limited by what the contractor happened to do in his last project, but by what is actually technically possible. What do the laws of physics say the building can handle?"

He continues:

"I think architecture will look very different going forward. Today we mostly build with right angles, which is connected to building methods like post-and-beam systems, developed a long time ago, where the load is carried down vertically through beams.

But we know from arches and bridges that there are many other ways to handle forces. If we focus on what is actually possible and safe — instead of habit — buildings can become much more creative. I find that really exciting."

It strikes me that building houses with the help of AI resembles how the creation of software itself is changing right now. When non-experts who can't code, like me, can suddenly create fairly advanced software, what matters is the "engine" that helps me do it. What Lovable, for example, offers for making good websites and apps.

A similar "AI engine" for building houses can work in much the same way. In that case by keeping track of all the must-haves, like the laws of physics, but also fire safety, costs, and much else.

This will surely be developed in small parts first, since each part is often quite complex, and then tied together into larger platforms.

When it can be connected to testing in a factory, the process becomes significantly faster and cheaper.

It's not about believing that AI magically solves everything, but about being able to combine the best of artificial capabilities with the physical world and human abilities.

It feels as if Jonas Jonsson, with experience from both software and real estate, is well positioned to help society marry the two.

To become a tech builder.

Maybe then we can also break the cycle of paying more for less construction, and get cheaper and better houses to live and work in.

Mathias Sundin
Arge optimisten

Three phases up to gigawatt scale

In central Oregon, an engineering team is building a power plant that will extract electricity from the Earth's internal heat at temperatures between 572 and 932 degrees Fahrenheit. The facility is called Project Obsidian and will be built in three phases. Phase I covers 50 megawatts, Phase II 250 megawatts, and Phase III more than one gigawatt. The plant produces electricity without fuel, without waste, and without emissions.

Microwaves replace the drill bit

The key technology is known as millimeter wave drilling. Instead of using a mechanical drill bit, high-frequency electromagnetic waves are sent down through a waveguide from a gyrotron at the surface. The waves break down the rock without physical contact. The technology is described as the most significant change in drilling since the drill bit was introduced in the 1930s.

Conventional drilling struggles at extreme depths. The equipment cannot withstand prolonged temperatures of several hundred degrees, and the deeper the drill goes, the harder it becomes to power the drill bit. Millimeter wave drilling bypasses these limitations by delivering energy electromagnetically, resulting in fewer interruptions and lower costs.

Clean well with gas pressure

To bring rock fragments, known as cuttings, up from the bottom of the hole, a pressurized gas system is used. In conventional drilling, thick drilling mud is used to transport the cuttings upward, but mud circulation becomes less effective at great depths. The gas system keeps the drilling zone clean and efficient even far down in the rock.

Beyond the geothermal ring

Traditional geothermal energy has depended on locations where nature does the easy work, such as hot springs and geological hotspots around the so-called Ring of Fire surrounding the Pacific Ocean. With millimeter wave drilling, geothermal power becomes available east of the Mississippi and on other continents. The technology is estimated to be able to reach more than 90 percent of humanity.

The most studied site

Project Obsidian is located at the most studied and economically most favorable site in the United States to demonstrate geothermal power at a new scale. The layout follows a model in which drilling begins conventionally and then switches to millimeter waves when heat and depth make the usual tools unusable. The wells are built to withstand decades of high heat and high pressure. Water is stimulated to move through rock formations and carries the heat up to high-efficiency turbines placed close to the point of use.

WALL-Y
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62 sites compared

Researchers from more than 30 universities and institutions have, for the first time, mapped how tropical rainforest recovers after agricultural use ceases. The study is published in the journal Nature and was conducted in the Chocó region of northwestern Ecuador.

The researchers examined 16 different groups of organisms, ranging from animals and plants to bacteria, across 62 sites within a nature reserve managed by the conservation organization Jocotoco. The sites included actively used pastures and cocoa plantations, secondary forests of varying ages that had previously been used for agriculture, and untouched primary forest. In total, more than 8,500 species were analyzed.

The results show that trees grow back quickly as soon as the land is left alone. Within a single human generation, 75 percent of species composition and 90 percent of species diversity return on their own.

Animals drive the regrowth

Bats, monkeys, birds, and other mammals transport tree seeds back into the cleared areas. Dung beetles bury the seeds in the soil, and hundreds of other animal species handle pollination. The animals are therefore not only beneficiaries of the returning forest — they are also a precondition for it.

The study reveals clear differences between species groups. Mobile animals such as birds and mammals recovered within a few years, while invertebrates in the leaf litter and bacteria in the soil take longer than the tree species themselves. Cocoa plantations regenerated faster than pastures, because plantation trees leave shade and foliage in place from an early stage.

Primary forest serves as seed source

Earlier studies in Central and South America have shown that the original diversity and biomass of trees need more than 100 years to fully recover. How quickly wildlife returned, on the other hand, was largely unknown until now.

The research team used acoustic methods, camera traps, artificial intelligence, and genetic species scans to map biodiversity among birds, mammals, frogs, and insects. Dung beetles were collected using dung and scent traps.

The recovery works as long as enough intact forest remains in the landscape to serve as a seed source for the returning species. Each year, 4–6 million hectares of tropical forest are lost globally, which is nearly equal to the combined area of all long-term restoration projects.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

🎥 Amaze, amaze, amaze

Science fiction is often dystopian—and that can be part of its appeal. I love the Mad Max films, for example.

But it gets a bit tiring when humanity has always destroyed nature, used up all natural resources, been consumed by greed, and is now forced to live in rain, fog, and neon light.

Often with incredibly advanced technology, yet still a collapsed civilization.

Maybe that’s why I neither read nor watch that much science fiction.
With a few exceptions. Among them the Star Trek series, which start from a humanity that has developed into something better.

And then there’s Andy Weir, who wrote the best science fiction book I’ve read: Project Hail Mary.

It’s now also a global hit in theaters, starring Ryan Gosling—and a living rock.

This week, I’m writing about why I hope Hollywood learns from books and films like The Martian and Project Hail Mary, where slightly reluctant but incredibly resourceful humans take the lead.

Removed a news item

Last week, I published a news piece with a questionable headline and lead about researchers finding a method to make solar cells more efficient. Taken together, the headline and lead could be interpreted as producing more energy than was put in, which isn’t possible.

I later changed both the headline and the lead, but even though the story was based on solid research and what appears to be a genuine breakthrough, the article didn’t quite communicate it in a way that avoided confusion. So I’ve removed it.

Thanks to those of you who pointed out the issue.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

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🍿 Amaze, amaze, amaze: Will Hollywood understand now?

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How abundance is measured

The Simon Abundance Index (SAI) measures the relationship between population and resource abundance. The index combines the per-person abundance of 50 basic commodities with the size of the world's population into a single number. In 1980, the starting value was set to 100. In 2025, the index stood at 636.4. All 50 commodities in the dataset were more abundant in 2025 than in 1980. Global abundance increased at a compound annual growth rate of 4.20 percent, doubling every seventeen years.

The index is based on the research of economist Julian Simon on the relationship between population growth and resource abundance. Simon argued that knowledge transforms atoms into usable resources, and that human beings themselves are the decisive factor behind greater abundance.

Time prices show how much work is required

The SAI uses time prices to measure changes. A time price shows how long a person must work to afford a good. Between 1980 and 2025, time prices for the 50 basic commodities fell by an average of 70.9 percent. What required an hour of work in 1980 today requires about 18 minutes. The same hour of work that bought one unit of a typical commodity in 1980 buys 3.44 units in 2025. Personal abundance increased at a compound annual growth rate of 2.78 percent, doubling every twenty-five years.

Both population and abundance grew

Between 1980 and 2025, the world's population grew from 4.44 to 8.21 billion people, an increase of 85 percent. At the same time, personal resource abundance increased by 244 percent. When these two values are multiplied, the total increase is 536.4 percent. Each percentage point increase in the global population corresponded to roughly 6.3 percentage points of growth in population-level abundance.

Changes between 2024 and 2025

In 2025, the SAI rose by 17.2 points from 619.2 to 636.4, an increase of 2.78 percent. Of the 50 commodities, 27 became more abundant and 23 became less abundant during the year. The variation was wide. Oranges rose the most in abundance at 65.6 percent, while coconut oil fell by 36.3 percent. The development of oranges reflects a pattern where disease, crop damage, and supply chain problems previously pushed up the time price before it fell back again.

Recovery after the pandemic

The index fell during the covid-19 pandemic, which disrupted production and supply chains around the world, and after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which drove up energy prices. By 2024, the index had reclaimed its pre-pandemic trajectory, and in 2025 the recovery continued toward the previous peak of 700.8 reached in 2020.

Comparison between countries

This year's edition of the index includes interactive graphics that allow the reader to explore developments in individual countries. The 42 countries included account for 85.9 percent of the world's gross domestic product and 66.3 percent of the world's population. None of these countries had less resource abundance in 2025 than in 1980.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
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• Researchers have now mapped every part of the flagellar motor that bacteria use to swim, after more than 50 years of research.
• The motor spins several hundred revolutions per second and is powered by protons streaming into the cell at more than 2,000 per second.
• Mike Manson, professor emeritus of biophysics at Texas A&M University, began studying the flagellar motor in the 1970s. After 50 years, he now understands how it works.

50 years of research on a molecular motor

The flagellar motor is an electric motor that single-celled bacteria use to move toward food. It spins a tail-like flagellum that pushes the cell forward. When the motor rotates counterclockwise, the cell swims straight ahead at ten times its own body length per second or more. When it rotates clockwise, the cell tumbles around and changes direction.

The motor was discovered in the 1970s by biophysicist Howard Berg at Harvard. He built an automatic tracking microscope that could follow a single bacterium, and found that bacteria alternate between swimming straight and tumbling. He also proposed that the motor actually rotates — an idea considered impossible in biology at the time.

Cryo-EM provided the answers

Improvements over the past 15 years in the imaging technique cryo-electron microscopy have made it possible to see the motor's parts. At the base sits a C ring of 34 identical proteins. Above the ring sit smaller protein complexes called stators. E. coli has 10 to 12 stators available per flagellum, and the number that lock into the C ring depends on the weight of the cell or the viscosity of the surrounding fluid.

Each stator consists of two central proteins surrounded by five proteins that form a pentagonal ring. This 5:2 geometry was mapped in 2020 by two independent research groups: one at the University of Oxford led by Susan Lea, and a joint group from the University of Copenhagen and Humboldt University of Berlin.

Protons drive the rotation

The pentagonal ring turns like a turnstile, one-tenth of a revolution at a time. What drives it is a stream of protons flowing into the cell. More than 2,000 protons pass through each pentagonal turnstile every second. In December 2025, Aravinthan Samuel at Harvard published results confirming this mechanism.

Inside the bacterium there are fewer than 100 free protons at a time, while a similar volume of water outside the cell contains tens of thousands. The difference is maintained by electron transport chains that pump out thousands of protons per second. It was biochemist Peter Mitchell who proposed this proton motive force in 1961, an idea that earned him the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1978.

The direction switch has been mapped

Two studies from 2024, one led by Lea at the National Institutes of Health and one led by Tina Iverson at Vanderbilt University, showed how the motor switches direction. When the bacterium detects fewer nutrients, proteins called CheY become phosphorylated. Within milliseconds, a phosphorylated CheY molecule binds to one of the C-ring proteins. That causes the entire ring to change shape, like a hair clip snapping into its other position.

In the new configuration, the stators rotate against the inner edge of the C ring instead of the outer edge, causing the C ring to spin clockwise. The flagellar bundle falls apart and the cell tumbles. When the phosphorus atom falls off, the ring returns to its original form. A study from Samuel's group in March 2026 confirmed that the system responds to a single signaling molecule.

Mike Manson, professor emeritus of biophysics at Texas A&M University, began studying the flagellar motor in the 1970s. After 50 years, he now understands how it works.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
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The vaccine stops the bacteria inside the tick

The LB6V vaccine protects against Lyme disease by stopping transmission while the bacteria are still inside the tick. The shot trains the body to produce antibodies against a bacterial protein called OspA, found on the surface of the Borrelia burgdorferi bacterium. When a tick feeds on a vaccinated person, it takes in the antibodies, which bind to OspA and prevent the bacteria from leaving the tick.

Full protection requires four doses of LB6V, and booster shots may be needed at regular intervals to maintain antibody levels.

The companies plan to submit the data to drug regulators in the United States and Europe for review and approval decisions.

Built on earlier research

LB6V builds on work from an earlier vaccine. That previous vaccine, LYMErix, also used OspA and had an efficacy of 76 percent. It was approved by the U.S. FDA in 1998 but was withdrawn from the market in 2002, partly due to low demand.

Follow-up studies from both the FDA and the manufacturer showed similar numbers of arthritis cases in vaccinated and control groups, suggesting the vaccine did not cause the condition. Laboratory studies also argued against a link. Even so, Valneva has removed the part of OspA identified as a possible cause in order to reduce any risk.

Lyme disease is spreading to new areas

Lyme disease is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and is increasing in parts of the United States, Canada, and Europe. Ticks carrying the bacteria are spreading to new areas as temperatures rise, and more are surviving the winter.

Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) are found across much of the eastern United States. Another species in the western part of the country, Ixodes pacificus, can also transmit Lyme disease. Ticks in the east more often carry the bacteria than ticks in the west.

Several strategies being developed in parallel

Researchers are also working on other methods. Lab-produced antibodies could provide fast protection, where a single shot at the beginning of the season could confer immunity for an entire tick season.

Another strategy targets the bacteria before they reach the tick. White-footed mice carry the bacteria and pass them on to ticks, which then spread them to other mammals, including humans. Researchers at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center have tested a vaccine for mice, in which the mice eat bait laced with an OspA-based vaccine that stops the bacteria inside the tick.

Field trials in parts of Maryland show that areas with vaccinated mice ended up with fewer infected ticks. Over five years, treated sites had 43 percent fewer immature ticks carrying Borrelia burgdorferi. In untreated sites, the population of immature ticks capable of transmitting the bacteria more than doubled.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

🎥 Amaze, amaze, amaze

Science fiction is often dystopian—and that can be part of its appeal. I love the Mad Max films, for example.

But it gets a bit tiring when humanity has always destroyed nature, used up all natural resources, been consumed by greed, and is now forced to live in rain, fog, and neon light.

Often with incredibly advanced technology, yet still a collapsed civilization.

Maybe that’s why I neither read nor watch that much science fiction.
With a few exceptions. Among them the Star Trek series, which start from a humanity that has developed into something better.

And then there’s Andy Weir, who wrote the best science fiction book I’ve read: Project Hail Mary.

It’s now also a global hit in theaters, starring Ryan Gosling—and a living rock.

This week, I’m writing about why I hope Hollywood learns from books and films like The Martian and Project Hail Mary, where slightly reluctant but incredibly resourceful humans take the lead.

Removed a news item

Last week, I published a news piece with a questionable headline and lead about researchers finding a method to make solar cells more efficient. Taken together, the headline and lead could be interpreted as producing more energy than was put in, which isn’t possible.

I later changed both the headline and the lead, but even though the story was based on solid research and what appears to be a genuine breakthrough, the article didn’t quite communicate it in a way that avoided confusion. So I’ve removed it.

Thanks to those of you who pointed out the issue.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Premium Supporter content

Open and free for everyone, thanks to the support of our paying members, Premium Supporters.

🍿 Amaze, amaze, amaze: Will Hollywood understand now?

In Hollywood, the future is always dystopian. Dark, rainy, and filled with neon lights. That’s where the money is, they believe. But one film now shows that isn’t true.

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

🧬 From 13% to 88%: This many survive pancreatic cancer thanks to new vaccine

Pancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest cancers. Fewer than 13 percent of those diagnosed survive more than five years. But after receiving a new mRNA vaccine, nearly 90 percent are still alive six years later.

Read more on Warp News

🦾 Startups that learned to use AI correctly generated 1.9 times higher revenue

Startups that learned how other companies had reorganized their operations around AI found 44 percent more use cases for the technology. The startups that received this information had 1.9 times higher revenue and were 18 percent more likely to acquire paying customers.

Read more on Warp News

😶‍🌫️ The risk of developing dementia at any given age has dropped sharply

The share of older people with dementia at any given age has fallen by two-thirds over 40 years. An 85-year-old in 2024 has one-third the risk of having dementia compared to an 85-year-old in 1984.

Read more on Warp News

🪱 Hookworm vaccine reduces infection in trial – could help millions with anemia

Hookworm infects more than 100 million people and is a major cause of iron-deficiency anemia, particularly in children and pregnant women. A phase 2 trial shows that a vaccine candidate substantially reduces the intensity of infection.

Read more on Warp News

📉 Overdose deaths in the US have dropped 35 percent from the 2023 peak

The number of overdose deaths in the US is estimated to have fallen by 35 percent from the peak year of 2023 to 2025. The purity of seized fentanyl powder was cut in half between August 2023 and the end of 2024. A coordinated counter-narcotics strategy has choked off the supply of fentanyl.

Read more on Warp News

🤰 Maternal mortality declining – new data and methods show measurable results

Globally, maternal mortality has decreased by 40 percent since 2000, according to estimates from the UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group. A sepsis prevention program at 59 hospitals in Malawi and Uganda reduced infection-related maternal mortality by 32 percent.

Read more on Warp News

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How the vaccine works

Pancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest cancers. Fewer than 13 percent of those diagnosed survive more than five years. New data from a Phase 1 clinical trial now shows that a personalized mRNA vaccine can produce a lasting immune response — and that most patients who responded to the vaccine are still alive six years later.

The vaccine is a form of immunotherapy. It activates the body's own immune system to fight cancer cells. The goal is not to remove existing tumors, but to seek out and destroy lingering cancer cells after surgery — and prevent new cells from causing a recurrence.

Patients first undergo surgery to remove the tumor. Genetic material from their individual tumor cells is then analyzed, and the vaccine is manufactured specifically for each person. In the study, patients received nine doses of the vaccine, followed by standard chemotherapy.

Results after six years

The study included 16 patients with early-stage pancreatic cancer. Eight of them responded to the vaccine and produced a strong immune response in the form of T cells — immune cells that seek out and destroy tumor cells. This was unexpected, as pancreatic cancer has long been considered one of the hardest cancers in which to generate any immune response at all.

Six years after treatment, seven of the eight patients who responded to the vaccine are still alive. Of the eight who did not respond, two are still alive. Two of the responding patients experienced a cancer recurrence, and one of them has since died.

The new results were presented at the American Association for Cancer Research's annual meeting in San Diego.

Two types of T cells working together

The research team also investigated how the immune response functions at the cellular level. They found that two types of T cells likely work in tandem to create a lasting defense. So-called killer T cells directly attack cancer cells. Helper T cells appear to extend the lifespan of these killer cells — which may be critical for maintaining the immune response over time.

The study's lead researcher, Dr. Vinod Balachandran at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, describes it as the vaccine needing to generate both types of T cells for an optimal response.

Larger study underway

The drugmakers Genentech and BioNTech, behind the vaccine, have already launched a Phase 2 study with more participants. A separate research team is working on a standardized vaccine targeting a protein called KRAS, which is present in up to 90 percent of all pancreatic cancer cases. In a small early trial, around 85 percent of participants mounted an immune response to the protein.

Researchers not involved in the study note that the results come from a small group of patients and that more research is needed. There is always a subset of pancreatic cancer patients who survive longer than five years, and it remains unclear what role the vaccine plays compared to other factors.

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Science fiction from Hollywood is often dystopian. Think Blade Runner.

It was released in 1982 and is set in a dark, rainy, and overpopulated future—2019.

The environment is technologically advanced but socially degraded: constant night, neon lights, dirt, crowding, and a sense of decay. Most people who can afford it have left Earth for colonies in space, while those who remain live in a kind of urban dystopia where identity, humanity, and morality have blurred boundaries.

I get it. It’s easy to create atmosphere and drama in that kind of setting. And just like negative news headlines sell, films about threats and collapse attract us humans.

Optimism that sells

But there are alternatives. It’s possible to make films that are exciting and profitable despite—or because of—their optimism.

No one shows this better than the author Andy Weir.

Right now, the film Project Hail Mary is a hit in theaters. At the time of writing, it’s the third most-watched film in the world this year.

It’s based on his book of the same name and is in many ways similar in structure to his first major success, The Martian.

That time it was Mark Watney (Matt Damon) who was left alone on Mars. Now it’s Ryland Grace (Ryan Gosling) who wakes up alone on a spaceship, several light-years from Earth.

He doesn’t remember why he’s there, but soon realizes he’s on a mission of extreme importance for humanity. And not only that—before long, he gets company, and not from a human.

Of all the imagined encounters between humans and aliens in film, this is by far the best—and, I believe, the most realistic.

It turns out that the alien, called Rocky, has the same problem as Ryland Grace, and together they set out to solve it.

We are “pretty awesome”

Both the film and the book are warm, funny, and show humanity’s ability to solve problems and create progress.

It reflects Andy Weir’s view of humanity:

“I think we’re pretty awesome,” he says in a podcast.

“And it’s easy to lose sight of that when you’re watching the news and you’re seeing like people doing bad stuff to each other. But I always try to remind folks that, like, the reason it’s on the news is because it’s newsworthy.”

This also shapes his positive view of technology:

“I think technology is really awesome, because technology is then put into the hands of humans who are awesome.”

Hollywood, follow the money toward hope

But Weir isn’t a missionary. He doesn’t want to persuade anyone to think a certain way, he says in several interviews. Entertainment is his calling.

Still, I hope Hollywood takes note. The media is now filled with slightly surprised commentary about how such a positive film can perform so well, and most conclude that this is exactly why. After all, the very similar The Martian was also a global success.

It has everything a great film should have—but being wrapped in something warm and optimistic makes it even better. When the world order is shaking and bombs are falling, maybe Hollywood will realize there’s money to be made in showing the opposite.

So dear Hollywood, tell us about what brings out the best in us. About human ingenuity and what we can achieve together. Entertain us, do what you do best, but tell us about those who dream. About those who build. About those who refuse to accept that tomorrow must be worse than today.

Tell us about the kind of stories that make us shout, like Rocky: Amaze, amaze, amaze!

Mathias Sundin
Angry Optimist

A dramatic decline over four decades

Over the past 40 years, the share of people with dementia at any given age has fallen by two-thirds. These are not marginal changes: in 1984, 30 percent of all people between the ages of 85 and 89 had dementia. In 2024, that figure was 10 percent.

The researchers behind the analysis are Eric Stallard, Svetlana Ukraintseva, and Murali Doraiswamy at Duke University in North Carolina.

Stallard analyzed data from three large population studies to reach this conclusion. The first was the National Long Term Care Survey, which followed Americans over age 65 from 1984 to 2004 and showed that the prevalence of severe cognitive impairment declined by 2.7 percent per year. The second was the US Health and Retirement Study, with data from 2000 to 2012, which showed a similar decline of 2.5 percent per year. The third was the National Health and Aging Trends Study, with data from nearly 50,000 people between 2011 and 2021, which showed a decline of 3.7 percent per year — but Stallard used only the years 2011–2019 to avoid the distortion caused by COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes during 2020–2021. During that period, the decline was 3 percent per year.

Each generation fares better

Stallard combined the three sources and used 2.7 percent as the annual rate of decline. The results show that each successive five-year birth cohort has lower dementia prevalence at any given age than its predecessors. A person born in 1945 had significantly lower risk of having dementia in a given age group compared to someone born in 1895.

Earlier projections called into question

The standard projections of a doubling of dementia cases by 2050 rest on the assumption that the share of people affected within each age group remains constant. But that is not the case, the analysis shows. If the current trend holds, Stallard calculates that dementia cases will increase by 25 percent by 2050 — a rise explained by the fact that there will simply be more older people, not that individuals face higher risk. A similar analysis from the Netherlands, based on data from the Rotterdam Study, points to an increase of 30 percent.

If the rate of decline continues in future birth cohorts as well, the increase could be even smaller — only 10 percent more cases by 2050, according to Stallard's calculations.

Better public health as an explanation

What has driven the decline is not yet fully understood. Since the late 1800s, much has changed: better nutrition, higher levels of education, vaccines and antibiotics against infectious diseases, and more effective treatment of cardiovascular disease and stroke. Mortality from heart disease fell by roughly three-quarters during the same period in which dementia prevalence declined by two-thirds, suggesting a link between the two trends.

More recent research has also identified changes in lifestyle factors — such as physical activity, smoking, hearing loss, and high blood pressure — as factors influencing dementia risk.

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Researchers at the George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences, in partnership with Baylor College of Medicine, have published results from a phase 2 trial of a hookworm vaccine. The study was published on March 17, 2026 in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

Hookworm infects an estimated 113 million people globally, and some estimates suggest more than 400 million. The parasite is found primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America. It feeds on blood in the small intestine and is one of the most common causes of iron-deficiency anemia, particularly in children and pregnant women in low-resource settings. There is currently no licensed vaccine against the disease.

How the trial was conducted

The trial involved 39 adult participants in Washington, D.C. Participants received three doses of one of three vaccine formulations or placebo, and were then exposed to the parasite under controlled conditions. All vaccine candidates had previously been tested for safety in phase 1 trials in the United States, Brazil, and Gabon, but had not been tested against actual infection.

Each candidate contains the protein Na-GST-1, an antigen that can generate an immune response against hookworm. The most effective formulation combined Na-GST-1 with an adjuvant called CpG, which enhances the immune response.

Lower infection levels in vaccinated participants

Participants who received the Na-GST-1/Al–CpG vaccine had significantly lower infection intensity after exposure. The highest measured worm egg count had a median of 0.0 eggs per gram of feces, compared with 66.7 eggs in the placebo group.

Levels of eosinophils, a blood marker linked to parasitic infection, were also significantly lower in the group that received Na-GST-1/Al–CpG. The same group also produced the highest levels of antibodies against Na-GST-1, suggesting that these antibodies may contribute to protection against infection.

Advancing as standalone or combination vaccine

Based on the results, the Na-GST-1/Al–CpG formulation has been selected for further clinical evaluation. It may be used either as a standalone vaccine or as part of a combination vaccine. In areas with high rates of both malaria and hookworm, it is not always clear which of the two diseases is the primary cause of anemia, according to the researchers behind the study.

Nearly 40 percent of children under the age of five suffer from anemia globally.

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🖖 Check out Conjecture Institute

David Deutsch is my intellectual hero. His book The Beginning of Infinity is number one among all the non-fiction books I’ve read.

So when I saw that he was an advisor to Conjecture Institute, I immediately became interested.

A couple of weeks ago, one of their founders reached out, and we spoke. He told me more about their work.

They want to contribute to answering the question of how knowledge grows, which is one of the most fundamental questions humanity has ever asked.

It affects everything we do, from research and politics to AI, business, and everyday decisions.

Karl Popper, David Deutsch, and others have shown that knowledge grows by formulating ideas and testing them through criticism.

The difference compared to, for example, Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin, and Albert Einstein is that their discoveries transformed specific fields, such as physics and biology. Here, it is instead about how all knowledge is created and improved (epistemology). It is not a single discovery, but a way of understanding how all discoveries become possible.

If more people think this way, we can avoid unnecessary obstacles and make better decisions, often without even realizing what we previously missed.

Check out Conjecture Institute and don’t miss the opportunity to attend their conference, Conjecture Con, in September.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

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New figures show a sharp decline

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published new provisional figures for overdose deaths in the US in March 2026. During the 12-month period ending in October 2025, an estimated 71,542 people died from overdoses.

That is a 17 percent decrease compared with the previous 12-month period.

The full year of 2025 is expected to show a 35 percent decline from the peak in 2023, writes The Washington Post.

Fentanyl supply has been choked off

The most important explanation for the decline, according to journalist Sam Quinones, is that fentanyl supply has dropped. Analysis of seized drugs by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) shows that the purity of fentanyl powder peaked at over 20 percent in August 2023. By the end of 2024, it had fallen to just above 10 percent. The purity of fentanyl pills also dropped, partly because Mexican producers had difficulty obtaining key precursor chemicals, according to the DEA.

Street prices reflect the change. In Tucson, Arizona, a major drug transit point near the Mexican border, fentanyl pills cost between 50 cents and one dollar during the peak in 2023. Those same pills now cost five dollars.

A coordinated strategy across agencies

The decline began shortly after federal agents from multiple US agencies launched a coordinated strategy to disrupt fentanyl flows. Mexican authorities also took part. The strategy was based on methods previously used against al-Qaeda, but adapted to target Mexican fentanyl traffickers and Chinese chemical companies.

The effort involved attacks on cartel finances, sanctions on Chinese chemical companies, arrests of money launderers, tracing of pill presses and operations against border couriers. A central element was rapid information sharing between agencies. Jake Braun, a former homeland security adviser during the Biden administration, describes the strategy in his book "Fentanyl: Fighting the Mass Poisoning of America and the Cartel Behind It." The strategy continued under the Trump administration.

Supply creates demand

Fentanyl is a supply-driven problem, Quinones writes. Street opioids create physical dependency in ways other drugs do not, particularly when they are potent and widely available. The pattern echoes the earlier opioid epidemic, which began in the 1990s when pharmaceutical companies pushed doctors to prescribe opioid painkillers on a large scale. As prescriptions rose, so did overdose deaths.

Fentanyl was the perfect product for drug dealers. It could be produced chemically year-round, unlike heroin which depends on poppy harvests. All that was needed was a flow of chemical ingredients, mainly from China, through Mexican ports. It is precisely this supply chain that has been disrupted over the past two years.

Narcan works better when supply drops

Narcan, the brand name for naloxone which reverses opioid overdoses, has also contributed to fewer deaths. But during the period of high fentanyl supply, Narcan offered only temporary relief. Many who died from overdoses had previously been revived with Narcan multiple times.

Now the reduced supply appears to be making Narcan more effective. A woman in Tucson who was addicted to fentanyl overdosed 26 times in 15 months during 2022 and 2023, and was revived with Narcan each time. During her latest period of drug use, she has not overdosed once.

In Salt Lake City, another woman said the fentanyl pills she purchased gradually weakened starting in early 2024. Eventually they no longer contained enough fentanyl to stave off her withdrawal. She sought treatment.

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Sepsis program saves lives in Malawi and Uganda

The APT-Sepsis program introduced structured infection prevention care at 59 hospitals in Malawi and Uganda. In total, nearly half a million births were covered. The result was clear: infection-related maternal mortality or severe morbidity decreased by 32 percent compared to usual care.

The method was based on systematically applying WHO's existing recommendations through a coordinated approach – not on new drugs or technologies. This shows that consistent application of already known methods can save thousands of lives annually, even in countries with limited resources.

Ambulances in rural Pakistan

In the province of Punjab, an ambulance service targeting pregnant women in rural areas was launched in 2017. A central call center in Lahore receives 5,000 calls per day. A fleet of 600 ambulances transports 2,800 women daily to health centers equipped for safe childbirth. The cost is 10–15 US dollars per trip.

Maternal mortality in Punjab stood at 227 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2007. Since the ambulance service started, it has dropped by 30 percent to 157 per 100,000. In total, the service has carried out more than three million transfers.

During the 2020s, Punjab has also upgraded 2,500 primary care units and equipped 1,800 of them with round-the-clock obstetric care. The ambulances are now integrated into a digital tracking system.

Contraceptives reach more people through task-sharing

WHO's Family Planning Accelerator Plus program has enabled more categories of health workers – such as midwives, nurses and community health workers – to prescribe and administer contraceptives. The results are concrete.

In Burkina Faso, the use of injectable contraceptives tripled. In Ethiopia, overall use of modern contraceptives doubled. In Ghana and Nigeria, more women chose long-acting methods such as implants. Integrating contraceptive counseling into maternity and postnatal care has led to more women in Kenya and Ethiopia choosing long-acting methods after childbirth.

Among adolescents, programs linking contraceptive access to empowerment cut rates of teenage pregnancy by more than half. The global birth rate among 15–19-year-olds fell by 36 percent between 2000 and 2023, from 64.5 to 41.3 births per 1,000 women.

Early intervention against postpartum hemorrhage

Postpartum hemorrhage is the single most common cause of death among pregnant and birthing women – accounting for approximately 27 percent of all maternal deaths globally. A meta-analysis of 312,151 women showed that earlier intervention, already at 300 milliliters of blood loss with abnormal vital signs, can catch more at-risk cases in time. A standardized treatment protocol called MOTIVE – combining uterine massage, uterotonics, tranexamic acid, fluids and escalation – was tested in several countries and showed high feasibility and acceptability.

Maternal mortality has decreased 40 percent since 2000

Globally, maternal mortality has decreased by 40 percent since 2000, according to estimates from the UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group. In Northern Africa and Western Asia, the death rate fell from 161 to 78 per 100,000 live births. In Central and Southern Asia, it went from 397 to 112.

Every year, an estimated 260,000 women still die from causes related to pregnancy and childbirth. In conflict-affected countries, maternal mortality stands at 504 per 100,000, compared to 99 in countries outside that category.

50 countries adopt self-care for reproductive health

Within five years of WHO publishing its guideline on self-care interventions for sexual and reproductive health, 50 countries have amended their national policies to include such options. Self-care means that individuals can carry out certain health interventions themselves, such as using self-tests or taking contraceptives, without needing to visit a clinic.

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The experiment

A field experiment with 515 high-growth startups from around the world shows that giving companies access to AI tools is not enough. What matters is whether they understand where in their operations AI creates value.

The study was conducted within a three-month startup program at the business school INSEAD. Participants were randomly divided into two groups. Both received the same tools, technical training, and API credits worth approximately $25,000 per company. Access to mentors, investor contacts, and weekly peer learning groups was also identical.

The only difference was the workshop content starting in week three. The treatment group received case studies showing how AI-native companies had reorganized their workflows, teams, business models, and financing around AI. The control group instead received case studies on general entrepreneurship — how to build a customer profile, test ideas, and similar topics.

More use cases and more completed tasks

The treatment group identified an average of 8.8 cumulative AI use cases during the program. The control group identified 6.1. That is an increase of 44 percent, and the gap grew each week from the start of treatment — a sign that this reflects continuous learning rather than a one-time effect.

Treatment firms used AI across more parts of their operations: on average 0.84 more functional categories than the control group. The largest differences were in product development, product and strategy design, and business operations — the areas where AI requires actually rethinking how work is organized, not just layering a tool on top of an existing process.

Treatment firms also completed more concrete tasks: 20.9 on average compared to 18.5 for the control group. The difference was driven almost entirely by internal tasks — product development, prototyping, and similar work — which is consistent with both groups having equal access to investors and customers.

Strong business results

On business metrics, the differences were clear. Treatment firms were 18 percent more likely to have acquired paying customers. They generated 1.9 times higher total revenue, and among firms that already had revenue, the multiple was 2.2 times.

Revenue effects were largest in the upper tail of the distribution — at the 90th and 95th percentiles — suggesting that AI primarily raises the ceiling for what the most promising companies can achieve, rather than uniformly improving outcomes across the board.

Lower capital needs without reduced headcount

One of the more striking findings concerns capital demand. Treatment firms reported planning to seek approximately $220,000 less in external capital ahead of the program's final demo days — a reduction of 39.5 percent compared to the control group. Staffing needs were unchanged.

This is interpreted as AI enabling firms to produce more with the same resources. The companies believed they needed less outside money to reach their goals.

Broad effects — regardless of background

The effects were evenly distributed. There was no statistically significant difference between technical and non-technical founders, and no clear differences based on a company's starting position. This suggests the barrier is not technical skill or general entrepreneurial ability, but the capacity to search broadly for where AI can create value within one's own production process.

Instrumental variable estimates confirm the relationship

The researchers used treatment assignment as an instrument to estimate the return per AI use case. Each additional use case led to 0.85 more completed tasks, a 3.9 percentage point higher probability of having customers, and approximately 26 percent higher revenue. The first stage of the instrumental variable estimation had an F-statistic above 33, confirming that the treatment genuinely affected AI adoption and not just other factors.

The problem is not access — it is search

The researchers call the central barrier the "mapping problem": the difficulty of discovering where and how AI creates value within a firm's production process. Control firms had exactly the same tools and training as treatment firms — yet realized substantially less value from AI. What treatment firms received was information on how to search more broadly and rethink how their entire operation can be organized around the technology.

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You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

🖖 Check out Conjecture Institute

David Deutsch is my intellectual hero. His book The Beginning of Infinity is number one among all the non-fiction books I’ve read.

So when I saw that he was an advisor to Conjecture Institute, I immediately became interested.

A couple of weeks ago, one of their founders reached out, and we spoke. He told me more about their work.

They want to contribute to answering the question of how knowledge grows, which is one of the most fundamental questions humanity has ever asked.

It affects everything we do, from research and politics to AI, business, and everyday decisions.

Karl Popper, David Deutsch, and others have shown that knowledge grows by formulating ideas and testing them through criticism.

The difference compared to, for example, Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin, and Albert Einstein is that their discoveries transformed specific fields, such as physics and biology. Here, it is instead about how all knowledge is created and improved (epistemology). It is not a single discovery, but a way of understanding how all discoveries become possible.

If more people think this way, we can avoid unnecessary obstacles and make better decisions, often without even realizing what we previously missed.

Check out Conjecture Institute and don’t miss the opportunity to attend their conference, Conjecture Con, in September.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

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🌔 Artemis 2 astronauts flew past the moon — set new distance record

The Artemis 2 crew traveled farther from Earth than any humans before — 406,778 kilometers (252,760 miles). It is the first time in over 50 years that humans have visited the moon, and the first time in history with a woman, a non-American and a Black person on board.

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🏗️ More than 80 percent of China's steel production upgraded to ultra-low emissions

Emissions have already fallen by 34 million tonnes of CO2 – equivalent to permanently shutting down eight coal-fired power plants. The steel industry accounts for 7 percent of global emissions, and China produces more than half of the world's steel.

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☀️ Solar cells reach 130 percent energy conversion – more energy out than in

Researchers have achieved solar energy conversion at an efficiency of 130 percent, exceeding the theoretical limit of 100 percent. The method is based on a process called singlet fission, where a single photon can produce two energy carriers instead of one.

Read more on Warp News

🧮 AI solves math problem that researchers failed to crack for six years

An AI system has for the first time solved a problem from FrontierMath, a benchmark consisting of real research problems that mathematicians have failed to solve. Multiple AI models have now demonstrated the ability to solve the problem, including GPT-5.4 Pro, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and Claude Opus 4.6.

Read more on Warp News

🏫 327 million more children – a 30 percent increase – are in school today compared to 2000

Since 2000, the world has seen one of the most extensive expansions of education in history. Enrollment in preschools has risen by 45 percent, and in higher education by 161 percent over the same period.

Read more on Warp News

🧠 You don't just inherit general intelligence – ability in math and language is also more than half determined by genes

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Read more on Warp News

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There has long been substantial evidence that general intelligence, known as g, both exists and is heritable. Someone who is above average in verbal ability is more likely to also be above average in math, memory and spatial reasoning. And genes are a large part of the explanation.

Yet this has been denied in wide circles, in journalism, teacher training and among cultural elites. Now a large new meta-analysis takes the findings a step further: not only is general intelligence heritable, but specific cognitive abilities are as well, each in their own right.

An analysis of nearly 750,000 twin pairs

A research team from King's College London and other institutions compiled data from 77 studies with a total of 747,567 twin comparisons. They investigated what proportion of variation in specific cognitive abilities is due to inheritance.

The study used the Cattell-Horn-Carroll model (CHC), a well-established framework for the structure of intelligence. At the middle level of the model sit 16 broader abilities, such as fluid reasoning, processing speed and quantitative knowledge. These abilities, called specific cognitive abilities (SCA), are the focus of the study. The researchers had twin data available for 11 of the 16 categories.

As heritable as general intelligence

The average heritability estimate for specific cognitive abilities came in at 56 percent, on par with the heritability of general intelligence at around 50 percent. Many had previously assumed that specific abilities were more shaped by environment and experience than by inheritance.

Heritability varied considerably across the different abilities. Quantitative knowledge and processing speed had the highest values at 64 percent. Reading and writing ability came in at 61 percent. At the lower end, short-term memory scored 41 percent, fluid reasoning 40 percent and auditory processing 39 percent.

The grouping of acquired knowledge, which includes reading, writing, math and subject knowledge, proved to be the most heritable category overall, with an average of 58 percent. Fluid reasoning, long considered to be most closely tied to general intelligence, had a comparatively low heritability estimate of 40 percent.

Heritable even independent of general intelligence

The most unexpected finding concerned what happens when general intelligence is removed from the specific abilities. The question was how much of the heritability of, say, mathematical ability merely reflects the inheritance of general intelligence, and how much is unique to math itself.

The results showed that specific cognitive abilities, corrected for general intelligence, were still 53 percent heritable on average. This despite the fact that a quarter of the variance in the abilities disappeared when general intelligence was removed.

In a sub-study on mathematical ability, heritability was 48 percent. When both general intelligence and reading ability were accounted for, the figure rose to 51 percent. For spatial ability, heritability was 39 percent for the ability itself and 27 percent when general intelligence was removed.

School-related abilities showed stable heritability

Reading, writing, math and general knowledge, abilities actively practiced in school, showed high and stable heritability values of around 60 percent throughout the school years.

Specific cognitive abilities did not follow the same developmental pattern as general intelligence. For g, heritability is known to increase with age, from around 20 percent in infancy to 60 percent in adulthood. For specific abilities the picture was different: heritability increased from 37 percent in early childhood to 60 percent in middle childhood, before declining to 46 percent in adulthood and 41 percent in later life.

Can be used to help children

The researchers highlight several concrete applications of the findings. Using what are called polygenic scores, a measure that combines the influence of thousands of DNA variants, it could become possible to predict a person's profile of cognitive strengths and weaknesses from birth. The researchers specifically mention the possibility of predicting aptitude for science and technology subjects independent of general intelligence.

Such genetic profiles could, according to the researchers, be used to strengthen children's cognitive strengths and minimize their weaknesses. Rather than waiting for problems to emerge, interventions could be put in place at an earlier stage.

The finding also challenges a common assumption in research, that the heritability of specific abilities mostly just reflects the heritability of general intelligence. The results open up a new field of research into the genetic foundations of specific cognitive abilities, separate from g.

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Despite not being true, these claims have spread widely in both traditional and social media and had a major impact. There isn’t a single Q&A session during a talk where someone doesn’t ask me about this.

How is it that something so wrong can gain such reach? Is it a conspiracy?

A narrative is more powerful than a conspiracy

No, I believe it is something else.

Claims about AI did not spread because they were well-founded, but because they landed right in the middle of two strong currents of opinion at the same time.

One was the climate debate, where the need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels is genuine and important. The other was the concern among journalists and creators that AI will replace them. That group is particularly aware of and concerned about climate change.

Here came something — AI — that threatened both the climate and their own jobs.

And, as we know, the media is always especially quick to highlight negative news and warn about dangers.

The claims about AI took on a life of their own. When enough people repeat something, it starts to feel true, even to those who should know better. Those who pass it on have rarely done the groundwork. They believe it because so many others have said it, which makes even more people believe it for the same reason. It is not a conspiracy, but when this happens, it is more powerful than conspiracies.

I fell for it

I fell into the trap myself. For quite some time, I believed that AI was especially energy-intensive. When asked, my response was that it was worth it—that we could use AI to reduce energy consumption in other areas.

However, some people began to scrutinize these claims. One of them was Hannah Ritchie, a climate activist who once believed the world was heading in a terrible direction until she saw Hans Rosling’s TED Talk and realized that progress and suffering coexist. She changed her path, became a researcher at Oxford, and began working at Our World in Data, a site that presents statistics on global development.

In other words, she is someone who cares about the environment and climate, wants to see a transition away from fossil fuels, and has the knowledge to think independently and resist strong narratives.

She wrote both that the claims about AI and energy were not true and placed energy use in context. One strength of the claims about AI’s energy or water use is that most of us have no real sense of how much energy is used in other parts of our lives.

When I read her texts and examined the sources, it began to dawn on me that I had probably been misled. While working on my book about AI, I dug into the numbers myself and realized that I—and almost everyone else—had been wrong. AI was not particularly energy-intensive.

But even after realizing this, it felt wrong. Despite the facts, I felt like a “climate denier” when answering questions during talks—as if I were trying to downplay a drawback of a new technology. It is bizarre to feel that way, but that is how it was. That feeling has now passed and instead turned into anger over how, once again, baseless claims are holding us back.

The tide is starting to turn

No matter how strong narratives are once they take hold, they are not immovable. Hannah Ritchie herself began studying the claims after reading Andy Masley’s review. He is an independent researcher and writer who is now beginning to gain global attention.

More and more people are picking up his analyses and helping to spread them. Previously, there was not even a response—now there is, and I believe I can see that the tide is beginning to turn.

Despite this, several major news outlets should be embarrassed. It is unacceptable that you are spreading this kind of baseless propaganda.

Mathias Sundin
Angry Optimist

By the end of 2025, steel producers representing more than 80 percent of China's crude steel production had completed ultra-low emissions upgrades, according to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA).

The steel industry is responsible for 7 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. China produces more than half of all steel in the world, making the country's emission levels in the sector particularly significant for global climate efforts.

The program started in 2019

The ultra-low emissions upgrade program was initiated through an official document in 2019: Opinions on Promoting the Implementation of Ultra-low Emissions in Iron and Steel Industry. It was later given further direction through the three-year action plan for energy efficiency in the steel industry, covering the period 2022–2025.

The program's requirements cover the entire steelmaking process – from raw material storage to modes of transportation – and set caps on pollutant emissions at every stage.

Energy consumption and emissions

According to CISA chairman Zhao Minge, a total of 143 steel producers nationwide had by the end of last year reduced their energy consumption by 2.5 percent in blast furnace ironmaking and 12.2 percent in converter steelmaking, compared to 2023 levels.

Over the same period, these companies cumulatively saved 13.2 million tonnes of standard coal. Carbon dioxide emissions fell by 34 million tonnes – a reduction equivalent to permanently shutting down eight coal-fired power plants.

Hydrogen and carbon recycling

China's steel industry has also made progress in low-carbon technologies. Baowu Group's 2,500-cubic-meter hydrogen-enriched carbon monoxide recycling furnace and Baosteel Zhanjiang's zero-carbon sheet plant have both been launched commercially in recent years.

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🤦 Here we go again

Last week I wrote about the false and exaggerated claims that AI consumes huge amounts of water (a single golf course uses more water than all ChatGPT usage).

And now it’s happening again.

A new claim about AI is now spreading in major media (such as CNN) and on social media. This time, it is claimed that a single AI data center can heat an area of over 300 square kilometers by between two and nine degrees Celsius!

Fortunately, this is not true.

There are several problems with the study, including that it discusses air temperature while the satellite data it relies on measures surface temperature.

Most likely, they have interpreted the temperature of the roofs of data centers and the surrounding new roads as a general temperature increase. But this is just the same difference as when, on a sunny summer day, you compare walking barefoot on grass with walking on an asphalt road.

This is an obvious objection, which they could easily have tested by comparing with other buildings that are not data centers—but they did not.

It is embarrassing to see how major media outlets uncritically spread this study, which has not even yet been peer-reviewed by other researchers.

Here I go through in more detail what is likely wrong with the study and how we can stop the spread of this virus.

🌖 We made it back!

Artemis II has rounded the Moon, and the Orion capsule carrying the four astronauts was, for a time, farther from Earth than any humans before.

As expected, we are now being flooded with amazing images. I think this one is my favorite so far.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Premium Supporter content

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🤦 Here we go again: A new, very shaky claim about AI and heat is spreading fast

A non-peer-reviewed study with extreme claims about data centers and temperature increases is now spreading across both news and social media. Time to bring out the vaccine!

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

💉 GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic, show positive effects against at least ten different diseases

The FDA has approved GLP-1 drugs for the treatment of kidney disease, heart disease, liver disease and sleep apnea – in addition to diabetes and obesity. Studies show early signs of positive effects also in cancer, asthma, fertility, dementia and inflammation.

Read more on Warp News

📑 AI scientist produces increasingly better papers – and an AI system can review them as well as humans

The quality of scientific papers written by the AI system The AI Scientist increases predictably as the underlying AI models improve. An automated reviewer built by the same research group matches human reviewers' accuracy when evaluating scientific papers.

Read more on Warp News

🌊 Montana tribes restore their rivers after historic water agreement

The Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes are restoring the Jocko River and other waterways in Northwestern Montana following a historic water compact with the state. Restoration work has already resulted in more bull trout returning to their native streams.

Read more on Warp News

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Ten years ago, the chance of a cat surviving a shelter was roughly fifty-fifty. Today, cats are being saved at record levels. The number of cat adoptions has increased by 20 percent over the past decade, and Generation Z has had the biggest impact on the increase.

Read more on Warp News

🌲 Europe's forests are growing faster than they are harvested

Forest growth exceeded harvesting in 23 EU countries with available data in 2023. Romania had the largest surplus with nearly 40 million cubic metres more growth than harvesting. Sweden had the second largest surplus in the EU with 26.4 million cubic metres of net growth.

Read more on Warp News

⚡ New fast charger charges an EV from 10 to 70 percent in five minutes

BYD's latest fast charger delivers up to 1,500 kilowatts and can charge a battery from 10 to 70 percent in five minutes. A charge from 10 to 100 percent takes about nine minutes. That corresponds to approximately 1,000 kilometers of range.

Read more on Warp News

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The problem had remained unsolved since 2019

FrontierMath: Open Problems is a benchmark consisting of real mathematical research problems that mathematicians have tried — and failed — to solve. Now an AI system has solved one of them for the first time.

The problem originated with mathematician Will Brian. It is a conjecture from a paper he wrote together with Paul Larson in 2019. Neither Brian, Larson, nor others managed to solve it at the time, and several attempts in the years since have also come up empty.

Brian had categorized the problem as "Moderately Interesting" within the benchmark's framework.

The solution may lead to a scientific publication

Brian now plans to write up the solution for publication in a specialist journal. He also assesses that the solution is fairly likely to generate new research questions, and that any follow-on work sparked by the AI's ideas may be included in the publication.

It was Kevin Barreto and Liam Price who first succeeded in eliciting a solution from GPT-5.4 Pro. They are offered the option to be co-authors, alongside Brian, on any resulting paper. Shortly afterward, Geby Jaff also elicited a solution.

Multiple AI models can solve the problem

Epoch AI, which runs the FrontierMath benchmark, has since replicated the solution in its own testing framework. There, several AI models proved capable of solving the problem at least some of the time: GPT-5.4 (xhigh), Gemini 3.1 Pro, and Claude Opus 4.6 (max).

A full chat transcript showing GPT-5.4 Pro's original solution is available on the FrontierMath website, along with solutions from the other models.

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327 million more students

Since 2000, the world has seen one of the most extensive expansions of education in history. That is the finding of UNESCO's Global Education Monitoring Report 2026, which this year focuses on access and equity in education.

The report, the first in a three-part series called Countdown to 2030, draws on data from 35 countries and analyzes what happens when international education goals meet national realities.

The most striking finding is the sharp increase in the number of students globally. Today, 327 million more children and young people are in school compared to 2000 – an increase of 30 percent.

The increase is even larger at other levels. Preschool enrollment has risen by 45 percent. In higher education – universities and colleges – the number of students has increased by 161 percent. It is estimated that six in ten children worldwide have now participated in some form of preschool.

In low-income countries, the secondary school-age population has doubled since 2000, while secondary school enrollment has nearly quadrupled.

Countries showing the way

The report highlights a number of countries that have made rapid changes with clear results.

In Uzbekistan, preschool enrollment tripled in just seven years. The gap in participation between the capital and other regions of the country has now been largely eliminated.

In Madagascar, the number of public schools offering preschool increased sixfold in three years. Today, around six in ten five-year-olds attend preschool in the country.

Cambodia has increased its primary school completion rate by 45 percentage points over 30 years. The number of schools has grown by 60 percent over 25 years, mainly in rural areas. The gender gap in primary completion has also been reversed – girls now complete primary school at higher rates than boys.

In Azerbaijan, the country reached near-universal access to preschool for five-year-olds within five years. The difference in access between urban and rural areas has been almost eliminated.

Albania doubled its upper secondary completion rate in a very short time. In Togo, access to higher education tripled in 14 years.

Equity improving in several areas

The report shows that the gender gap in education has narrowed globally. Legal frameworks and policies have made education more accessible, affordable, and adapted to students' varying needs and circumstances.

In Latin America, the income gap in preschool access – the difference between children from rich and poor families – has been eliminated over the past 25 years. It is the only region in the world with long-term data showing such equalization.

Bolivia's reforms have drastically reduced socioeconomic inequality in education in a short time. The country spends well above the two most commonly used international benchmarks for education financing.

In Armenia, the share of children with disabilities placed in special schools fell sharply, as more children were enrolled in mainstream schools instead. Moldova shows a similar pattern.

Targeted financing produces results

The report shows that targeted financing measures work. Conditional cash transfers, school meals, and direct grants to students are highlighted as effective in increasing participation among the most disadvantaged children.

More than half of all countries use cash transfers to families to expand access to preschool. School grants – given directly to schools – are the fastest-growing equity instrument in education financing globally.

In Morocco, secondary school enrollment has more than doubled in 25 years. One in nine upper secondary students in the country receives support for school transport.

The report finds that countries which have maintained steady progress over time have done so through broad and sustained reforms – rather than single measures.

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New distance record

On April 6, 2026, at 7:07 p.m. EDT, the Orion capsule reached its maximum distance from Earth: 252,760 miles (406,778 kilometers). The old record was set by the Apollo 13 crew on April 15, 1970, when they were 248,655 miles (400,171 kilometers) from Earth. That record had stood for 56 years.

The Artemis 2 crew consists of Christina Koch, Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover and Jeremy Hansen. It is the first time a woman, a non-American and a Black person have been part of a crew traveling to the moon.

The far side of the moon

The nearly seven-hour flyby gave the astronauts views of the moon that no human eyes had ever seen before. They also observed a total solar eclipse from their position beyond the moon.

The astronauts brought mobile phones and tablets on board and were able to take personal photos, including images of Earth through Orion's windows.

Science on board

Artemis 2 is a test mission and does not land on the lunar surface. Even so, a number of scientific experiments are being conducted during the journey.

The crew is measuring radiation from the solar wind with six times greater detail than Artemis 1 did, thanks to a contribution from the German space agency DLR. The astronauts are also monitoring their own health and collecting data on sleep patterns, cardiovascular health, stress and immune function.

One of the experiments is called "organ-on-a-chip" and builds on modern medical advances. The crew is also photographing ancient craters and lava flows on the lunar surface, guided by a team on the ground.

Future moon bases

The Artemis program aims to eventually land humans on the moon and build permanent bases there — a clear contrast to Apollo's flags-and-footprints approach.

The last people to visit the moon were Apollo 17's Gene Cernan, Harrison Schmitt and Ronald Evans in 1972.

The crew's tributes

During the flyby, the crew named two unnamed craters "Integrity" — the same name they gave their spacecraft — and "Carroll," named after Artemis 2 commander Reid Wiseman's wife, a nurse who passed away in 2020 after a five-year battle with cancer.

Before the April 1 launch, Apollo astronaut Jim Lovell had recorded a message for the crew. He passed away in August of last year, but his words reached the astronauts on April 6: "Welcome to my old neighborhood."

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🤦 Here we go again

Last week I wrote about the false and exaggerated claims that AI consumes huge amounts of water (a single golf course uses more water than all ChatGPT usage).

And now it’s happening again.

A new claim about AI is now spreading in major media (such as CNN) and on social media. This time, it is claimed that a single AI data center can heat an area of over 300 square kilometers by between two and nine degrees Celsius!

Fortunately, this is not true.

There are several problems with the study, including that it discusses air temperature while the satellite data it relies on measures surface temperature.

Most likely, they have interpreted the temperature of the roofs of data centers and the surrounding new roads as a general temperature increase. But this is just the same difference as when, on a sunny summer day, you compare walking barefoot on grass with walking on an asphalt road.

This is an obvious objection, which they could easily have tested by comparing with other buildings that are not data centers—but they did not.

It is embarrassing to see how major media outlets uncritically spread this study, which has not even yet been peer-reviewed by other researchers.

Here I go through in more detail what is likely wrong with the study and how we can stop the spread of this virus.

🌖 We made it back!

Artemis II has rounded the Moon, and the Orion capsule carrying the four astronauts was, for a time, farther from Earth than any humans before.

As expected, we are now being flooded with amazing images. I think this one is my favorite so far.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Premium Supporter content

Open and free for everyone, thanks to the support of our paying members, Premium Supporters.

🤦 Here we go again: A new, very shaky claim about AI and heat is spreading fast

A non-peer-reviewed study with extreme claims about data centers and temperature increases is now spreading across both news and social media. Time to bring out the vaccine!

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

💉 GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic, show positive effects against at least ten different diseases

The FDA has approved GLP-1 drugs for the treatment of kidney disease, heart disease, liver disease and sleep apnea – in addition to diabetes and obesity. Studies show early signs of positive effects also in cancer, asthma, fertility, dementia and inflammation.

Read more on Warp News

📑 AI scientist produces increasingly better papers – and an AI system can review them as well as humans

The quality of scientific papers written by the AI system The AI Scientist increases predictably as the underlying AI models improve. An automated reviewer built by the same research group matches human reviewers' accuracy when evaluating scientific papers.

Read more on Warp News

🌊 Montana tribes restore their rivers after historic water agreement

The Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes are restoring the Jocko River and other waterways in Northwestern Montana following a historic water compact with the state. Restoration work has already resulted in more bull trout returning to their native streams.

Read more on Warp News

😺 The number of cats euthanized in American shelters has decreased by 75 percent in ten years

Ten years ago, the chance of a cat surviving a shelter was roughly fifty-fifty. Today, cats are being saved at record levels. The number of cat adoptions has increased by 20 percent over the past decade, and Generation Z has had the biggest impact on the increase.

Read more on Warp News

🌲 Europe's forests are growing faster than they are harvested

Forest growth exceeded harvesting in 23 EU countries with available data in 2023. Romania had the largest surplus with nearly 40 million cubic metres more growth than harvesting. Sweden had the second largest surplus in the EU with 26.4 million cubic metres of net growth.

Read more on Warp News

⚡ New fast charger charges an EV from 10 to 70 percent in five minutes

BYD's latest fast charger delivers up to 1,500 kilowatts and can charge a battery from 10 to 70 percent in five minutes. A charge from 10 to 100 percent takes about nine minutes. That corresponds to approximately 1,000 kilometers of range.

Read more on Warp News

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Better models produce better research

Last year, researchers at Sakana AI, the University of British Columbia, the Vector Institute and the University of Oxford showed that an AI system could produce a scientific paper that passed peer review at a workshop at the AI conference ICLR 2025. Now the full work is published in Nature, with new results showing how the system improves over time.

The researchers had The AI Scientist produce papers using a range of different AI models, from older to newer. The papers were then evaluated by an automated reviewer. The result shows a clear pattern: the newer and more capable the model used, the higher the quality of the produced papers. The relationship follows a scaling law and is statistically significant with a p-value below 0.00001.

The researchers also showed that more computational power per paper leads to higher quality. More computational nodes in the system's tree-based experiment search consistently produce higher scores. This means the system improves in two ways simultaneously: through better AI models and through more computational resources.

In practice, this means The AI Scientist does not need to be rebuilt to get better. The system automatically benefits from improvements in the underlying models.

Automated reviewer on par with humans

To measure paper quality at scale, the research group built an automated reviewer. It compiles five independent reviews and then makes a final decision in the role of "area chair," following the guidelines for the NeurIPS conference.

The reviewer was tested against thousands of real decisions from the ICLR conference. It achieved a balanced accuracy of 69 percent for papers published before the model's knowledge cutoff. That compares with 66 percent for human reviewers in the NeurIPS 2021 consistency experiment, where ten percent of all submitted papers were randomly sent to two independent review committees.

The reviewer's F1 score was 0.62. The agreement between human reviewers in the same experiment was 0.49. The automated reviewer was thus more consistent in its assessments than human reviewers were with each other.

Even for papers published after the knowledge cutoff – papers the model could not have seen during training – the balanced accuracy was 66 percent. This suggests that any data contamination had minimal effect on the results.

How the AI researcher works

The AI Scientist works in four phases. First, it generates research ideas and checks them against existing literature via Semantic Scholar. Then it conducts experiments through a parallelized tree-based search in four steps: preliminary investigation, hyperparameter tuning, main experiments and ablation studies. In the third phase, the system writes a complete scientific paper in LaTeX. Finally, the automated reviewer evaluates the paper's quality.

The system uses several AI models for different tasks. OpenAI's o3 handles idea generation, Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4 writes code, OpenAI's GPT-4o analyzes images and graphs, and OpenAI's o4-mini handles the reviewing. The entire process takes between a few hours and over 15 hours depending on the complexity of the task.

All code is open and available on GitHub under the Apache License 2.0.

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In a paper, a group of researchers claim that AI data centers (large server facilities) create a local temperature increase of on average 2°C — a “data heat island effect” — up to 10 kilometers from a data center. This would affect nearly 350 million people.

Sounds bad, right?

Several major news outlets jumped on the study:

CNN:
Scientists have found an alarming environmental impact of vast data centers
They are creating “heat islands,” warming the land around them by up to 16 degrees Fahrenheit, and making life hotter for more than 340 million people.

Independent:
Data centers ‘warming the land around them by up to 16 degrees’
New research from the University of Cambridge reveals that the rapid expansion of AI data centers is creating "data heat islands" that significantly warm surrounding environments.

India Today:
AI Data centres creating heat islands, raising temp by 9°C, scientists confirm
In extreme cases, the jump can be as high as the difference between a pleasant Delhi winter morning and a scorching May afternoon.

Sounds really bad, right?

You can turn off the fan and relax, because the study is very likely off track.

Once again, it’s Andy Masley who has worked hard to review the contents of the paper, but I have also examined it closely myself.

The data does not measure what the researchers claim

First of all, it has not been peer-reviewed. That in itself does not mean it is wrong, but for the media above to present it with certainty is directly irresponsible.

The study’s biggest weakness is that the satellite data they use measures surface temperature, not air temperature. That means the temperature of ground, snow, grass, roofs, or tree canopies. Despite this, they write about “atmospheric heat,” microclimates, and effects on human health and welfare — conclusions that require air temperature data, not surface temperature data.

They claim that the temperature increase is caused by waste heat from data centers. That heat is released into the air and would have to be extreme both in temperature and volume to warm the ground surface up to 10 kilometers away.

Instead, there is a much more reasonable explanation for the temperature increase: a data center means new surfaces — buildings with roofs, parking lots, roads, and other surrounding infrastructure.

Imagine walking barefoot on grass on a warm, sunny summer day and then stepping onto an asphalt road.

Since the study excludes data centers in or near cities — to avoid mixing in urban effects — these data centers have likely replaced grass, forest, shrubs, or other natural land. In other words, new surfaces that are warmer.

This is an incredibly obvious objection, which the study does not even attempt to test. They could have compared with other types of buildings that do not produce waste heat, and seen whether the same temperature effect occurs there (for example, a large logistics warehouse, which, like a data center, leads to surrounding infrastructure and buildings). If yes, then the surface temperature increase has nothing to do with it being a data center. If no, then it might indicate that the study is correct.

Collapses under its own implausibility

Another weakness is the sheer magnitude of the effect. Even without calculating, alarm bells should have gone off when considering what would be required for waste heat to warm such a large area.

Imagine stepping out of a restaurant and, as you pass the kitchen, feeling warm air blowing from a fan. That is the kitchen’s “waste heat.” These kinds of fans are supposed to heat an area of 314 square kilometers! Of course, thousands of servers generate far more heat than a kitchen — but 314 square kilometers!

I asked ChatGPT and Gemini to estimate the amount of energy required to heat an area as much as the study claims. Gemini arrives at 4.5 GW. ChatGPT estimated 2–4 GW.

A modern, massive hyperscale data center has a maximum electricity consumption (and thus maximum heat output) of roughly 0.1 to 0.5 GW (and since the study’s data ends in 2024, there are likely none or very few data centers that large in the dataset). The 4.5 GW required by physics to sustain the measured temperature gradient across the landscape is therefore about four to 40 times higher than what the world’s largest data centers can produce.

Stop the spread

There are additional small and large problems with this paper, but for those I refer you to Andy Masley’s review.

Now we need to go into pandemic mode. The vaccine against this study gaining the same traction as the baseless claim about AI and water consumption is facts and scrutiny.

If you see this study continuing to spread uncritically in news media or social media, share this and Andy Masley’s article with them.

Mathias Sundin
Angry Optimist

🚰 How much water does AI use?

There’s a claim spreading on social media that a single prompt to ChatGPT uses half a liter of water.

Completely wrong.

The debate around AI is full of that kind of claim, not least when it comes to AI and energy (which I address in my book).

They’re hard to resist. I’ve fallen for them myself. Claims spread across both social media and traditional media, and they benefit from the fact that most of us have no idea how much water or energy we—or different industries—actually use. Everything sounds like a lot, and alarming.

That’s where Andy Masley has done a fantastic job. He has dug deep to get as close as possible to the real numbers. (Companies should be much better at sharing data—right now it requires a lot of piecing things together.)

He has then compared this with other industries. It turns out that all golf courses in the U.S. use about 5,474 times more water than all ChatGPT usage.

I looked into this a bit further and found that a single golf course can use more water than all ChatGPT usage. Quail Creek uses about 6 times more water than ChatGPT, Omni Tucson National about 4 times more, and Ventana Canyon about 3 times more. These are just three examples among many.

I write more about how water is used in data centers, how companies are reducing water consumption, and more comparisons with other industries in this week’s Premium Supporter article (open to everyone).

🌖 Another attempt to reach the Moon

Four astronauts are now on their way to the Moon.

The last attempt was delayed due to an issue with the rocket. I wrote about it at the time and asked a few questions to Christer Fuglesang (a Warp News subscriber and astronaut).

🍎 Apple turns 50

On April 1, 1976, Apple was founded. I’ve read countless books about this fascinating company and its even more fascinating founder, Steve Jobs.

Make Something Wonderful (which is free), a collection of Steve Jobs’ own writings and thoughts, and Becoming Steve Jobs are my favorites.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

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🚰 A single golf club uses more water than ChatGPT

On social media, the claim is spreading that a single prompt consumes a half-liter water bottle. That is completely wrong. In reality, very little water is used, especially compared to other activities like golf or agriculture.

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

📑 Research identifies 28 climate policies that work in all countries

A study of 1,737 climate policies across 40 countries over 32 years shows which measures consistently reduce emissions regardless of context. Carbon taxes and investments in renewable energy and research stand out as particularly reliable instruments for reducing emissions.

Read more on Warp News

💫 Space collision altered asteroids' solar orbit – confirms that planetary defense works

NASA's deliberate space collision with the asteroid Dimorphos shifted the asteroid pair's orbit around the sun. It is the first time scientists have been able to measure such a change, confirming that the technique works for deflecting dangerous asteroids.

Read more on Warp News

💣 Terrorism deaths at lowest level since 2007

The number of people killed in terrorism dropped by 28 percent globally in 2025, to a total of 5,582. The number of terrorist attacks decreased by 22 percent, to 2,944 incidents. These are the lowest figures recorded since 2007.

Read more on Warp News

🔋 World's first quantum battery charges faster the larger it gets

Researchers at CSIRO have created a working prototype quantum battery that charges wirelessly with a laser and completes a full battery cycle: charging, storing, and discharging energy. Unlike conventional batteries, quantum batteries charge faster the larger they are.

Read more on Warp News

🧒 Global child mortality has decreased by 60 percent since 1990

Mortality among children under five has fallen by approximately 60 percent since 1990, thanks to investments in vaccinations, newborn care and nutrition. Mortality among newborns has decreased by 45 percent during the same period.

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🚮 Countries with the most plastic waste have the least plastic pollution

If all countries managed their waste the way high-income countries do today, global plastic pollution would decrease by over 98 percent. Every dollar invested in waste management in low-income countries prevents about 25,000 times more plastic pollution than the same dollar spent in a rich country.

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A river straightened like a bowling lane

The Jocko River in Northwestern Montana was once rich with bull trout and surrounded by tributaries of cold, fresh water. But during the 20th century, the river changed dramatically. As agriculture expanded on the Flathead Reservation, the river was channelized and cut off from its natural floodplain. According to Casey Ryan, tribal member and manager of the tribes' Division of Engineering and Water Resources, the river was straightened and severed from its natural meanders and side channels. Ryan describes it as straight as a bowling lane.

The Flathead Indian Irrigation Project, built in 1908, has over 1,000 miles of canals and irrigates nearly 130,000 acres of land. The project has 14 major reservoirs. But as early as the 1930s, surveys showed that the water supply was insufficient to meet agricultural needs in most years. Over 34 creeks flowing down onto the valley floor die in the canal that runs along the base of the Mission Mountains.

An 1855 treaty at the foundation

The Selis, Ksanka and Qlispe tribes originally held a territory of nearly 22 million acres in western Montana, extending into Canada, Idaho and Wyoming. The area encompassed over 980 miles of rivers and streams. But the 1855 Hellgate Treaty drastically reduced tribal lands, and the 1887 Dawes Act opened parts of the reservation to homesteaders. The result was a patchwork of private and tribal land.

Western water law is built on the principle of "prior appropriation" – whoever first claims water and puts it to use holds first rights. During westward expansion, water was regarded as an infinite resource and rights were given away freely. This severed the tribes from their traditional ways of life.

A historic water compact

After a decade of negotiations, the 2015 Confederated Salish and Kootenai-Montana Water Rights Compact was signed. It took effect in 2021 and recognizes the tribes' reserved and aboriginal water rights, including cultural and religious uses. The compact also protects existing water users through a joint state-tribal water management system.

The compact quantifies the tribes' water rights and protects instream flows, existing uses and historic deliveries to irrigators. The management plan combines Western science with tribal traditional knowledge.

The river is restored – and bull trout return

Bull trout, a culturally important fish species for the tribes, was listed as endangered in 1998. The Jocko River is the species' last stronghold and home to its last remaining migratory population. The fish was a vital food source for the tribes when other reserves were low.

Restoration work began even before the compact was signed, partly funded through a $187 million settlement from a lawsuit against the mining company ARCO. Mining and milling along the Upper Clark Fork River had polluted the river so severely that it became one of the nation's largest Superfund sites.

The tribes concentrated their efforts on restoring the South Fork of the Jocko, which had the same hydrological profile as the Clark Fork. They purchased private land and removed buildings from the floodplain.

Now the compact's implementation phase has taken over. Tribal crews are working to reconnect the river to its floodplain and allow water to slow, spread and seep back into the land. In low-lying areas, they have created natural filtration zones using cattails and other wetland plants that capture agricultural runoff before it reaches the river.

According to Ryan, the work has already resulted in more bull trout returning to their native streams. Healthier rivers in turn support soil, recharge groundwater and stabilize the broader watershed that farming depends on.

Cultural waterway established

In 2021, the tribes established the Lower Flathead River as a cultural waterway through a special ordinance that mirrors the provisions of the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act. The purpose is to protect the river's free-flowing character from development. The tribes plan to protect additional waterways in the same way.

The tribes' Séliš-Ql̓ispé Culture Committee, guided by a board of tribal elders for 50 years, has been central to the work. The compact is creating jobs and reconnecting tribal members to traditional ways of life. The tribes' Division of Engineering and Water Resources expanded in 2020 to meet the compact's needs.

Ryan sums it up: the rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure has been good for both fish and farmers.

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Kitten programs have been critical

Over the past decade, the number of cats euthanized in shelters in the United States has decreased by 75 percent. The change is the result of systematic work where local communities have partnered with shelters to implement modern programs that save more cats' lives.

Kittens make up more than 50 percent of all cats taken into shelters. Foster-based programs, where volunteers care for kittens during their most vulnerable period, have been a central factor behind the reduction. The programs help kittens survive the first critical weeks and then find permanent homes.

Community cats get to stay in their areas

One of the biggest drivers behind the reduction in shelter deaths is community cat programs. In these programs, healthy cats are trapped, neutered or spayed, vaccinated, and then returned to the area where they live. Over the past ten years, the number of cats returned to their outdoor environments has increased by 70 percent. The programs have broad support. According to a study, an average of 30 percent of the population feeds community cats in their neighborhoods.

More adoptions, especially among young people

Cat adoptions have increased by 20 percent over the past decade. Generation Z, the youngest adult generation, has had the biggest impact on the increase compared to all other generations. Shelters have made the adoption process more open and welcoming, making it easier for people to bring home a cat. This has particularly benefited first-time pet owners.

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Romania, Sweden and Poland at the top

In 23 of the EU member states with available data, forests grew faster than they were harvested in 2023. This is shown by new statistics from Eurostat, the EU's statistical office.

A simple way to measure whether timber production is sustainable is to compare the amount of timber harvested or removed during a year with the forest's natural growth, known as the net annual increment.

Romania had the largest surplus of growth compared to harvesting in 2023, at 39.9 million cubic metres. Sweden came in second with 26.4 million cubic metres and Poland in third with 26.3 million cubic metres.

France followed with approximately 24 million cubic metres and Germany with roughly the same. Finland had a surplus of around 21 million cubic metres.

A broad European trend

The pattern extends across large parts of Europe. Lithuania had a surplus of approximately 11 million cubic metres. Bulgaria, Ireland, Austria, Denmark and Slovakia all had surpluses of between five and eight million cubic metres. Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia and Portugal ranged between three and five million cubic metres.

Even countries with smaller forest areas such as Czechia, Latvia, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Cyprus and Belgium showed positive net growth, albeit with smaller margins.

Estonia was the only country where harvesting exceeded growth. There, 11.6 million cubic metres of timber were removed, while the net annual increment was 9.1 million cubic metres. This resulted in a net decrease of 2.5 million cubic metres.

Eurostat's method

Eurostat's method focuses on intentionally harvested wood. Unexpected losses such as natural disasters are not included. The purpose is to better reflect the environmental footprint of the forestry sector.

Data is not available for Greece, Spain and Italy. Norway and Switzerland, which are not EU members, are reported separately in the statistics. Norway had a surplus of approximately seven million cubic metres and Switzerland of approximately one million cubic metres.

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Four times faster than today's fast chargers

Chinese automaker BYD has announced that its Flash Chargers, first launched a year ago, can now charge certain EV batteries from 10 to 70 percent in five minutes. A charge from 10 to 100 percent takes about nine minutes. That corresponds to approximately 1,000 kilometers of range.

The new chargers deliver up to 1,500 kilowatts per charge. That can be compared to the fast chargers most common in the US today, which operate at 350 kilowatts and charge 80 percent of a battery in 15 to 25 minutes, and to full in about 40 minutes.

BYD has so far built over 4,000 of the new chargers in China. The plan is to build an additional 16,000 in the country before the end of the year, as well as 2,000 in Europe.

New battery with higher energy density

The high charging speed is linked to a new generation of BYD's Blade battery. The new battery uses a lithium manganese iron phosphate chemistry, abbreviated LMFP, which increases energy density. The previous version used lithium iron phosphate, LFP. BYD states that all battery elements have been redesigned, including the electrodes that store and release energy, the electrolytes that enable ion transfer during charging and discharging, and the separators that control ion flow.

Energy density has increased by five percent compared to the previous version. BYD's model Denza Z9GT, which has the new battery, is said to have a range of over 1,000 kilometers per charge.

Vertical integration provides an advantage

One reason BYD can achieve these charging speeds is that the company manufactures its own cars, chargers, and batteries. All technology is built to work together. The vehicles' software and wiring are designed to handle the high currents. In Europe, initially only the Denza Z9GT can utilize the chargers' full capacity. The car is set to debut in Paris next month.

Charging station design

The charger is a T-shaped system that can deliver over a megawatt from the electrical grid. BYD plans to integrate the new chargers into existing charging facilities, so that the infrastructure does not need to be built from scratch. The company will also use storage batteries at the charging sites to supplement the grid and avoid overloading.

Fast charging may influence car buyers' choices

Survey after survey shows that potential EV buyers worry about range and charging. Faster charging could lead more drivers to consider electric vehicles. Gil Tal, who heads the EV Research Center at UC Davis, says that fast charging creates an experience similar to filling up a gasoline car. That is the comparison that gasoline car drivers make when evaluating electric vehicles.

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From diabetes drug to treatment for a range of diseases

GLP-1 drugs – sold under brand names such as Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound – were developed to treat diabetes and obesity. Research now shows they have effects against a range of other diseases, writes The Washington Post.

The drugs work in different ways. Ozempic and Wegovy contain semaglutide, a synthetic version of the hormone GLP-1 that regulates blood sugar and signals fullness. Mounjaro and Zepbound contain tirzepatide, which mimics GLP-1 but also acts on a second hormonal pathway called GIP.

Daniel Drucker, an endocrinologist at the University of Toronto who has studied GLP-1 drugs for decades, describes patients with rheumatoid arthritis experiencing strong anti-inflammatory effects without losing weight. Harlan Krumholz, professor of medicine at Yale University, has noted improvements in blood pressure. Other clinicians have seen positive results in sleep apnea, joint pain and liver disease.

Kidney disease

• Semaglutide reduced serious kidney events to 5.8 per 100 patients per year, compared with 7.5 in the placebo group.
• The study was stopped early due to the strong results.
• The FDA approved Ozempic for chronic kidney disease in January 2025.

A clinical trial with more than 3,500 patients showed that semaglutide significantly reduced the risk of kidney complications in people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease. The study was presented at the European Renal Association meeting in Stockholm in 2024 and published in the New England Journal of Medicine. The improvements were not linked to weight loss. The researchers noted that the mechanisms behind the kidney protection are likely multiple.

Cardiovascular disease

• Semaglutide reduced the risk of heart attack, stroke and cardiovascular death by approximately 20 percent.
• The FDA approved semaglutide for cardiovascular disease in people who are overweight or obese in March 2024.

The approval is based on a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine in November 2023. Over a follow-up period of approximately 40 months, 6.5 percent in the semaglutide group experienced serious cardiovascular events, compared with 8.0 percent in the placebo group. An additional study showed that tirzepatide lowered the risk of serious heart problems in patients with obesity and a type of heart failure.

Liver disease

• 62.9 percent of patients receiving semaglutide had improved liver inflammation without increased scarring, compared with 34.3 percent in the placebo group.
• The FDA granted accelerated approval for semaglutide for metabolic liver disease in August 2025.

A study published in 2025 in the New England Journal of Medicine showed that semaglutide improved outcomes for people with metabolic liver disease and liver fibrosis, the progressive form of what was previously called fatty liver disease. Another study involving HIV patients showed that liver fat decreased by 31 percent after six months of treatment with semaglutide.

Sleep apnea

• Tirzepatide reduced breathing interruptions during sleep by 25 to 29 per hour, compared with 5 to 6 in the placebo group.
• Zepbound became the first approved drug for moderate to severe sleep apnea in December 2024.

Two major clinical trials showed that tirzepatide improved symptoms of obstructive sleep apnea in people with obesity. The results were presented at the American Diabetes Association conference in Orlando and published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Being overweight is the top risk factor for the condition, which affects millions of adults.

Addiction and substance use

• GLP-1 use was linked to a 14 percent lower risk of developing addiction to alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, nicotine and opioids.
• Patients with alcohol use disorder drank less and had fewer cravings for alcohol and cigarettes during treatment with semaglutide.

A large study published in the BMJ involving more than 600,000 American veterans with type 2 diabetes showed these results. Among veterans with preexisting substance use disorders, GLP-1 use was linked to fewer drug-related emergency visits, hospitalizations, overdoses and deaths over three years. A study in JAMA Psychiatry from February 2025 confirmed reduced cravings for alcohol and cigarettes during a nine-week treatment period.

Knee pain and inflammation

• Patients with obesity and knee osteoarthritis reported a 41.7 percent reduction in knee pain with semaglutide, compared with 27.5 percent with placebo.
• Eli Lilly is now investing in inflammatory diseases such as Crohn's disease and severe skin and lung disorders.

A study published in October 2024 in the New England Journal of Medicine showed these results after 68 weeks of treatment. Researchers are not certain whether the effect is due to weight loss or whether the drugs have a specific action on the joints. An analysis in Obesity Science and Practice from May 2024 showed that semaglutide may reduce the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis. Smaller studies have also shown improvements in psoriasis, kidney function and reduced risk of blood clots.

Cancer

• People with type 2 diabetes who took GLP-1 drugs had a markedly reduced risk of colon cancer in a study of 101.2 million patient records.
• Laboratory experiments show that GLP-1 drugs can reduce cancer cell migration and tumor growth.

The study was published in JAMA Oncology in December 2024 by researchers at Case Western Reserve University. It does not prove that the drugs caused the risk reduction, but the researchers noted that the link is strong enough to warrant further study. A review published in Nature Cancer in January listed dozens of ongoing clinical trials of GLP-1 drugs related to cancer, with a focus on endometrial, breast and prostate cancer.

Asthma

• People with obesity and asthma who took GLP-1 drugs had better control of their asthma symptoms.

A British study published in April 2025 examined approximately 60,000 patients, of whom roughly 10,000 used GLP-1 drugs and had both obesity and asthma. The patients had better symptom control. The researchers believe the drugs' anti-inflammatory effects may be behind the improvements.

Fertility and PCOS

• Low doses of semaglutide reduced body weight in nearly 80 percent of patients with polycystic ovary syndrome who had not responded to previous treatment.
• Menstrual cycles normalized in these patients.

The study was published in the Journal of Clinical Medicine in September 2023. There are also signs that weight loss linked to semaglutide may increase sperm count and sperm motility in men. In women with type 2 diabetes, hormonal imbalances affecting ovulation may improve. At least a dozen studies are underway on GLP-1 use in polycystic ovary syndrome and obesity.

Food cravings

• Participants taking semaglutide and tirzepatide reported less hunger and fewer compulsive food thoughts compared with placebo.
• Brain imaging studies show reduced activity in the brain's reward centers when exposed to high-calorie food.

Clinical trials have consistently shown that GLP-1 drugs reduce appetite, cravings and intrusive thoughts about food. In an 18-week study published in Diabetes in June 2023, adults with obesity taking tirzepatide showed clearly reduced hunger and fewer cravings.

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🚰 How much water does AI use?

There’s a claim spreading on social media that a single prompt to ChatGPT uses half a liter of water.

Completely wrong.

The debate around AI is full of that kind of claim, not least when it comes to AI and energy (which I address in my book).

They’re hard to resist. I’ve fallen for them myself. Claims spread across both social media and traditional media, and they benefit from the fact that most of us have no idea how much water or energy we—or different industries—actually use. Everything sounds like a lot, and alarming.

That’s where Andy Masley has done a fantastic job. He has dug deep to get as close as possible to the real numbers. (Companies should be much better at sharing data—right now it requires a lot of piecing things together.)

He has then compared this with other industries. It turns out that all golf courses in the U.S. use about 5,474 times more water than all ChatGPT usage.

I looked into this a bit further and found that a single golf course can use more water than all ChatGPT usage. Quail Creek uses about 6 times more water than ChatGPT, Omni Tucson National about 4 times more, and Ventana Canyon about 3 times more. These are just three examples among many.

I write more about how water is used in data centers, how companies are reducing water consumption, and more comparisons with other industries in this week’s Premium Supporter article (open to everyone).

🌖 Another attempt to reach the Moon

Wednesday evening ET, a new attempt will be made to launch the four astronauts who are set to travel to (but not land on) the Moon.

The last attempt was delayed due to an issue with the rocket. I wrote about it at the time and asked a few questions to Christer Fuglesang (a Warp News subscriber and astronaut).

🍎 Apple turns 50

On April 1, 1976, Apple was founded. I’ve read countless books about this fascinating company and its even more fascinating founder, Steve Jobs.

Make Something Wonderful (which is free), a collection of Steve Jobs’ own writings and thoughts, and Becoming Steve Jobs are my favorites.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

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🚰 A single golf club uses more water than ChatGPT

On social media, the claim is spreading that a single prompt consumes a half-liter water bottle. That is completely wrong. In reality, very little water is used, especially compared to other activities like golf or agriculture.

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

📑 Research identifies 28 climate policies that work in all countries

A study of 1,737 climate policies across 40 countries over 32 years shows which measures consistently reduce emissions regardless of context. Carbon taxes and investments in renewable energy and research stand out as particularly reliable instruments for reducing emissions.

Read more on Warp News

💫 Space collision altered asteroids' solar orbit – confirms that planetary defense works

NASA's deliberate space collision with the asteroid Dimorphos shifted the asteroid pair's orbit around the sun. It is the first time scientists have been able to measure such a change, confirming that the technique works for deflecting dangerous asteroids.

Read more on Warp News

💣 Terrorism deaths at lowest level since 2007

The number of people killed in terrorism dropped by 28 percent globally in 2025, to a total of 5,582. The number of terrorist attacks decreased by 22 percent, to 2,944 incidents. These are the lowest figures recorded since 2007.

Read more on Warp News

🔋 World's first quantum battery charges faster the larger it gets

Researchers at CSIRO have created a working prototype quantum battery that charges wirelessly with a laser and completes a full battery cycle: charging, storing, and discharging energy. Unlike conventional batteries, quantum batteries charge faster the larger they are.

Read more on Warp News

🧒 Global child mortality has decreased by 60 percent since 1990

Mortality among children under five has fallen by approximately 60 percent since 1990, thanks to investments in vaccinations, newborn care and nutrition. Mortality among newborns has decreased by 45 percent during the same period.

Read more on Warp News

🚮 Countries with the most plastic waste have the least plastic pollution

If all countries managed their waste the way high-income countries do today, global plastic pollution would decrease by over 98 percent. Every dollar invested in waste management in low-income countries prevents about 25,000 times more plastic pollution than the same dollar spent in a rich country.

Read more on Warp News

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A new study published in the journal Climate Policy has analyzed 47 different climate policies across 40 countries over the period 1990 to 2022. In total, 1,737 individual policy decisions were included in the analysis, spread across four sectors: buildings, energy, industry, and transport. The result is a list of 28 measures shown to have a documented effect on emission levels regardless of the policy context in which they are applied.

Three times more climate measures since 2000

The number of climate policy measures worldwide has increased sharply over recent decades. The most conservative estimates show that the number of measures is now on average approximately four times higher than in 2000. In the most extreme cases, the increase amounts to around fifteen times the 2000 levels.

The rapid increase makes it difficult to assess which individual measures actually work, as different policy instruments affect one another. The researchers behind the study have developed a method that makes it possible to analyze the effects of individual measures while accounting for the other measures in a country's climate policy.

Method based on Bayesian statistics

To handle this complexity, the researchers use Bayesian statistical modeling with three different types of statistical filters. These filters apply increasingly strict requirements for how certain an effect must be before a measure is counted as effective. The model also includes control variables such as GDP per capita, economic growth, the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix, industry's share of the economy, trade openness, and state capacity.

The study draws on the OECD's Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework, the only existing dataset that not only records whether a measure is in place but also measures its stringency — that is, how strict or ambitious the measure actually is.

28 measures with documented effect

A total of 28 climate policy measures were identified as showing a demonstrable effect on emissions in at least two of the three statistical models. The measures fall into five categories:

Carbon pricing and taxation covers eight measures, including carbon taxes on buildings, electricity, industry, and transport, as well as emissions trading and congestion charges.

Energy efficiency and standards includes five measures, among them building energy codes, air emission standards, minimum energy performance requirements for electric motors and transport, and speed limits on motorways.

Renewable energy and research is the largest category with eleven measures, such as research and development in nuclear, hydrogen, and renewable energy, as well as renewable energy auctions and planning for renewable expansion.

Reporting and accountability is covered by three measures requiring countries to report and account for their greenhouse gas emissions in the energy, industry, and transport sectors.

Subsidies is represented by one measure: the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies in the transport sector.

Carbon taxes work even at low levels

A common argument against carbon taxes is that they are often set too low for political reasons, meaning the effect actually depends on the combination of several measures rather than the tax itself. The study shows that carbon pricing has a demonstrable effect even when the analysis accounts for the other measures in a country's climate policy.

Portugal's emissions illustrate the potential

The researchers illustrate the effects using Portugal's emissions data. If the country had applied all identified measures at maximum stringency since 2000, the total emission reductions across the four sectors would amount to 538 million tons of CO2 equivalents. That is equivalent to an entire emission-free year in a country like South Korea within the four sectors analyzed, whose emissions total 567 million tons of CO2 equivalents.

Sweden and Norway have introduced all measures

The study shows that countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and Saudi Arabia have the greatest potential to reduce emissions in the transport sector by tightening their climate policies. Among countries with ambitious climate policies, gaps still exist. Germany, for example, could improve its climate efforts by introducing speed limits on motorways. Australia, Canada, and Japan have room to do more by raising excise taxes on fossil fuels.

Sweden and Norway have introduced all identified measures, albeit with varying degrees of stringency. This shows that implementing all measures simultaneously is politically feasible in practice.

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In social media, a claim is spreading that a single question or instruction (prompt) to ChatGPT consumes a half-liter water bottle. This is a distortion of an older claim that 20 to 50 prompts use up half a liter of water.

These claims are far too bad to be true. Instead, it's a fog of pessimism being spread.

But before we get to that, let's understand how water consumption is connected to AI.

AI data centers consume water primarily for cooling. When the servers are working, they get hot, and the heat has to be removed for the systems to function. In many facilities, water is used in the cooling systems, and most of the water that is actually consumed doesn't become polluted — it evaporates as the heat is carried away.

A smaller portion remains as what's called blowdown water, where salts and sometimes chemicals used against corrosion, bacteria, and deposits have become concentrated. That water may need to be treated before being discharged or sent to treatment facilities, much like other wastewater.

So data centers don't pollute the water, so the key issue is how much water they consume.

One person who has done significant work to both map and visualize this is Andy Masley. He's a former physics teacher, holds dual master's degrees in physics and psychology, and now does research on AI. He's also vegan. That last part is relevant because, given the context, you might otherwise suspect he's some kind of fossil-fuel-loving far-right extremist, or something like that.

He has written extensively about AI and both energy and water consumption.

One problem — which helps claims like the ones above gain traction — is that people in general have no clue how much water goes into anything. That makes it easy to be horrified.

How much water ChatGPT actually consumes

If you factor in electricity production as well as data center cooling, a single ChatGPT prompt consumes roughly 0.31 milliliters. That's 0,06 percent – or 0,6 permille – of a 500-milliliter water bottle.

To put that in perspective, the entire production chain for a beef hamburger consumes around 2,500 liters of water. Switch to a chicken burger and you're looking at roughly 650 liters, and for a plant-based burger about 150 liters. (These figures are based on numbers from the Water Footprint Network, and I haven't checked whether they're exaggerated.)

AI compared to golf courses

Andy Masley has mapped and compared AI data centers with several other activities, including golf.

ChatGPT accounts for roughly 0.018 percent of the water use of all golf courses in the US. America's golf courses use approximately 5,474 times more water than ChatGPT.

Golf courses in Arizona alone use roughly 148 times more water than ChatGPT.

There are individual golf courses that consume more water than ChatGPT does worldwide!

Quail Creek uses roughly 6 times more water than ChatGPT, Omni Tucson National about 4 times more, and Ventana Canyon about 3 times more, according to Pima County's records.

All data centers in the US (not just those used for AI) consumed, about 3.3 percent of the water used by golf courses, according to the most recent figures (2023).

Golf courses are thirsty, but they're nothing compared to corn

ChatGPT accounts for:

• roughly 0.0035 percent of all irrigated corn farming in the US
• roughly 0.0088 percent of irrigated corn farming in Nebraska

All US data centers account for:

• roughly 0.62 percent of all irrigated corn farming in the US
• roughly 1.58 percent of irrigated corn farming in Nebraska

Corn production thus uses approximately 28,900 times more water than ChatGPT, and roughly 161 times more than all US data centers combined.

What about bottled water?

ChatGPT's water consumption amounts to roughly 0.43 percent of the water the US uses for bottled water production. Not even all data centers in the US combined reach the same amount, coming in at approximately 76 percent.

Going forward?

Unfortunately, we then have to rely on projections, and when something is growing as fast as AI, my starting assumption is that they're far too low. But if we look at the ones that exist, here's what we get:

All AI use in the US will reach roughly 8.5 percent of total golf course water consumption by 2030. ChatGPT will account for 0.047 percent. By 2030, ChatGPT won't even reach two percent of Arizona's golf courses. It takes all AI use in the US to surpass Arizona.

All AI use in the US will surpass bottled water production by 2030 and consume roughly twice as much. But corn production in the US will still use over 60 times more water.

Shouldn't we care at all?

Of course we should try to minimize water consumption related to AI and data centers in general. And that's exactly what's being done.

To reduce water consumption in data centers, the main focus has been on reducing the need for cooling where water evaporates. This is achieved through more closed-loop cooling systems, liquid cooling closer to the chips, better management of temperature and airflow, more sensors to detect leaks, and increased use of recycled water instead of drinking water.

The impact has been clear: Microsoft has reduced its water intensity by around 45 percent in just a few years, AWS by 40 percent since 2021, Meta by roughly 40 percent since 2020, and Google says new low-water solutions can reduce water use by up to 50 percent at a facility.

It's good for these companies to face continued pressure to reduce both energy and water consumption, but that pressure should be based on facts. Not a bunch of made-up numbers spread in a fog of pessimism.

Mathias Sundin
Angry Optimist

Sharp global decline

In 2025, 5,582 people were killed in terrorist incidents worldwide. That represents a 28 percent decrease compared to the previous year. The number of incidents stood at 2,944, corresponding to a 22 percent reduction.

Both figures are the lowest recorded since 2007 — nearly 20 years ago.

That is according to the Global Terrorism Index 2026 (GTI), published by the think tank Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). The report has been published annually for 13 years and is the most comprehensive compilation of global terrorism trends available.

Middle East and North Africa

One of the most significant changes is taking place in the Middle East and North Africa. In that region, the number of people killed in terrorism has fallen by 95 percent over the past ten years.

Sub-Saharan Africa still heavily affected

Six of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism are located in sub-Saharan Africa. The region still accounts for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths globally, but a decline was also recorded there in 2025.

How the index is measured

The GTI is calculated based on several factors: number of incidents, deaths, injuries, and hostages taken. These are then combined with conflict and socioeconomic data to provide a comprehensive picture of terrorism's impact in each country.

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A battery that works differently

Australian researchers at CSIRO, Australia's national science agency, have created a prototype quantum battery — something that previously existed only as a theoretical concept since 2013.

Lead researcher Dr James Quach describes the prototype as the first to complete a full battery cycle. That means the battery charges, stores energy, and can then discharge it again.

The quantum battery charges wirelessly using a laser and uses principles of quantum mechanics to store energy.

Larger battery — shorter charging time

One of the most unusual properties of quantum batteries is that they charge faster the larger they are. This is the opposite of how conventional batteries work.

Quach illustrates this with an everyday example: a mobile phone takes about 30 minutes to charge, while an electric car can take an entire night. That is because charging time increases with size in conventional batteries.

In quantum batteries, the reverse is true, thanks to what are called collective effects. This means quantum cells charge faster when more cells are involved. Quach and his colleagues first demonstrated this phenomenon in 2022, but that prototype had no way of extracting the energy again.

Femtoseconds and nanoseconds

The new prototype, described in the scientific journal Light: Science & Applications, charged in femtoseconds — that is, quadrillionths of a second. The energy was then stored for nanoseconds, which is roughly six orders of magnitude longer than the charging time.

To put those numbers in perspective: if a battery takes one minute to charge and holds its charge six orders of magnitude longer, it would stay charged for a couple of years.

The current prototype has a capacity of only a few billion electron volts, which Quach himself describes as very small and not enough to power anything useful.

Potential applications

A quantum battery that charges wirelessly with a laser opens up use in places that are difficult to reach with cables. Quach mentions drones as one example — they could be charged while in flight.

Professor Andrew White, who leads the quantum technology laboratory at the University of Queensland and was not involved in the research, believes quantum batteries will most likely find their first practical use in quantum computers. There, they can deliver energy in a way that minimizes energy losses in these systems.

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😐 An apology

I’ll start with an apology, as I didn’t send a premium article on Tuesday.

The past week has been hectic, including several talks. When I looked at my calendar, I wasn’t a fact-based optimist, but overly optimistic about how much I could get done.

🔊 Over a thousand streams

According to the latest statistics (which are five days old), my song – Arise, arise – and its different versions have now passed a thousand streams on Spotify. Thanks to all of you who listened!

If you want to make your own version, it’s available on Suno.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

☀️ Bihar gives 250,000 poor families free rooftop solar panels

The Indian state of Bihar is installing solar panels at no cost for families living below the poverty line. The families will have zero electricity costs for basic usage such as fans, lighting and mobile charging. In the first phase, 250,000 households will receive solar panels

Read more on Warp News

💓 People who practice empathy with AI get better at showing compassion

A study with 968 participants shows that personalized feedback from an AI coach makes people significantly better at communicating with empathy. People who feel empathy often fail to express it – most believed they were good listeners, but independent assessment showed that few actually were.

Read more on Warp News

📰 Trust in journalists has nearly doubled in 20 years

44 percent of Swedes have high or fairly high trust in journalists, according to the latest survey from the SOM Institute. The share has risen from 24 percent in 2004, nearly doubling over two decades. At the same time, the share who think journalists do their job poorly has been cut in half.

Read more on Warp News

🚭 The share of Americans who smoke has dropped to a historic low

Less than ten percent of American adults smoked cigarettes in 2024, the first time the rate has reached single digits. Reduced smoking has contributed to nearly four million lung cancer deaths being averted between 1970 and 2022.

Read more on Warp News

🏠 Americans have tripled their living space per person since 1950

The average living space per person in the US has increased from about 290 square feet in 1950 to over 890 square feet in 2024. The share of overcrowded homes has fallen from over 20% in 1940 to under 6%.

Read more on Warp News

🦋 Rewilding in Scotland leads to sharply increased biodiversity

Rewilded land in Scotland has increased the number of suitable breeding territories for birds by 546% compared to non-rewilded land. The number of bumblebees and butterflies has increased more than tenfold, and the network is now estimated to support 2.5 million pollinating insects.

Read more on Warp News

🧒 Child poverty in Sweden drops to lowest level in ten years

The share of children living in families with a low income standard has fallen from 10 percent to 6 percent since 2014. 56 percent of all children live in families with a high income standard, that corresponds to more than 1.2 million children.

Read more on Warp News

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Millions of lives saved

Since 1990, mortality among children under five has decreased by approximately 60 percent. Neonatal mortality, meaning deaths during the first 28 days of life, has decreased by 45 percent during the same period. This has saved millions of young lives. The progress is the result of decades of investment in immunization programs, basic healthcare, newborn care, nutritional support and integrated management of childhood illnesses.

The figures come from the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, UN IGME, which this year for the first time published fully synchronized cause-of-death estimates. This means researchers can now see what children of different ages are dying from with greater precision than before.

Detailed causes of death mapped

Cause-of-death patterns vary sharply depending on age. Among newborns, deaths are primarily caused by premature birth, complications during delivery and neonatal infections. These are conditions that can be significantly reduced through quality maternal care, skilled birth attendants and targeted care for small and sick newborns.

Among children aged 1 to 59 months, pneumonia, diarrhea and malaria are the leading causes of death. Malnutrition often exacerbates these diseases. The report estimates for the first time deaths directly caused by severe acute malnutrition. The result shows that more than 100,000 children in that age group died from it in 2024.

In countries where survival among young children has improved, congenital anomalies make up a growing share of deaths among children under five.

Different risks at different ages

Children over five, adolescents and young adults face a different set of risks. These involve a mix of infectious diseases, noncommunicable diseases, injuries and causes linked to mental health. This underscores the need for a life-course approach that protects health throughout childhood, adolescence and into young adulthood.

Geography still determines outcomes

Where a child grows up still affects their chances of survival. Differences based on geography, income, maternal education level and access to clean water and sanitation all play a role. In conflict-affected and fragile settings, the challenges are greatest, with limited access to basic healthcare.

At the same time, global evidence shows that child mortality has fallen sharply in countries where targeted investments have been made. The tools to prevent these deaths already exist. It is a matter of scaling them up sufficiently.

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More plastic waste, less plastic pollution

A person in a high-income country generates an average of 63 kilograms of plastic waste per year. But only 0.1 kilograms becomes plastic pollution. In low-income countries, the picture is entirely different. There, 16 kilograms of plastic waste is created per person, but a full 10 kilograms ends up in the environment. More plastic waste does not automatically lead to more plastic pollution, writes Our World in Data.

The data comes from research by Joshua Cottom and colleagues, who modeled plastic use, waste generation, and waste management methods in countries around the world.

The pattern is consistent across all income groups. Upper-middle-income countries generate 35 kilograms of plastic waste per person but 5 kilograms of pollution. Lower-middle-income countries produce 24 kilograms of waste but 10 kilograms of pollution — nearly as much as the very poorest countries.

Waste management makes all the difference

The explanation lies in how waste is handled. In high-income countries, most of it is collected and sent to controlled landfills, incineration facilities, or recycling. In many low- and middle-income countries, less than half of household waste is collected. People often have no choice but to burn or dump it. Even the waste that is collected often ends up in open dumps where it leaks into the environment.

The largest source of plastic pollution is uncollected waste and poorly managed disposal sites. In high-income countries, roughly half of the small amount of pollution that exists comes from littering — people discarding bottles, packaging, and bags.

Reducing plastic use is not enough

Cutting plastic use in rich countries has very little effect on global plastic pollution. High-income countries account for less than 0.5 percent of total pollution. Even large reductions in plastic use in low- and middle-income countries would not solve the problem. If one in every five kilograms of plastic waste still becomes pollution, tens of millions of tons would continue to leak into the environment each year, even if waste were halved.

Basic infrastructure has the greatest impact

According to a study published in Nature Sustainability by Malak Anshassi and Timothy Townsend, high-income countries typically spend about $50 per person on waste management. In low-income countries, the figure is $1 at most. This is where investments make the greatest difference. Every dollar spent on upgrading systems in a low- or lower-middle-income country prevents roughly 25,000 times more plastic pollution than the same dollar spent on advanced infrastructure in a rich country.

Since capital is usually the limiting factor, basic infrastructure — waste collection and controlled landfills — delivers more results per dollar than expensive alternatives such as incineration plants and recycling facilities.

The knowledge and tools to reduce global plastic pollution to just 2 percent of current levels already exist.

WALL-Y
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First measurement of an altered solar orbit

In 2022, NASA deliberately crashed a spacecraft into the small asteroid Dimorphos. The purpose was to test whether humans can alter an asteroid's trajectory. The mission, called DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test), succeeded. The collision shortened Dimorphos's orbital period around the larger asteroid Didymos by 32 minutes.

Now a new study, published in the journal Science Advances, shows that the effect was greater than that.

The researchers found that the collision also changed the asteroid pair's shared orbit around the sun. The shift was small – 150 milliseconds per orbit around the sun – but it is the first time such a change has been measured.

According to Rahil Makadia, who led the study at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, it is precisely an asteroid's motion around the sun that needs to be altered if it is on a collision course with Earth. Even small changes can be enough to avoid a catastrophe.

Amateur astronomers contributed

To measure the changes in the asteroids' solar orbit, the research team enlisted the help of dozens of amateur astronomers in countries including Australia, Japan and the United States. They precisely measured when the asteroid pair passed in front of distant stars at different points along its orbit. The known positions of the stars made it possible to determine where Didymos and Dimorphos were in space.

The researchers also used radar data collected before and after the DART collision using the Goldstone Observatory in California and the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico.

Debris cloud doubled the effect

Before the collision, the asteroids traveled around the sun at more than 76,000 miles per hour. DART increased that speed by about two inches per hour.

A key finding was that the shift in solar orbit was not solely caused by the collision itself. The cloud of debris ejected into space gave the asteroid an additional push in the opposite direction, doubling the deflection effect. Steve Chesley, a researcher at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and co-author of the study, described it as a recoil effect from the ejected material.

Hera to refine the measurements

Later this year, the spacecraft Hera, launched by the European Space Agency in 2024, will arrive at Didymos and Dimorphos. Hera will examine the aftermath of the DART collision in detail – including how the shape of Dimorphos changed, how much debris was released and whether the material resettled on one of the asteroids or left the pair entirely.

NASA and ESA also continue to monitor other potentially dangerous asteroids. In early 2025, astronomers identified asteroid 2024 YR4, which was assessed to have a small risk of hitting Earth in 2032. Within months, scientists were able to rule out a collision with Earth. In March, NASA and ESA announced that new observations with the James Webb Space Telescope show that the asteroid also poses no threat to the moon. It is estimated to pass approximately 13,200 miles above the lunar surface.

WALL-Y
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You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

😐 One day late

I’ll start with an apology, as the newsletter is a day late and I also didn’t manage to write a premium article on Tuesday.

The past week has been hectic, including several talks. I wasn’t a fact-based optimist when I looked at my calendar, but overly optimistic about my time.

🔊 Over a thousand streams

According to the latest statistics (which are five days old), my song – Arise, arise – and its different versions have now passed a thousand streams on Spotify. Thanks to all of you who listened!

If you want to make your own version, it’s available on Suno.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

☀️ Bihar gives 250,000 poor families free rooftop solar panels

The Indian state of Bihar is installing solar panels at no cost for families living below the poverty line. The families will have zero electricity costs for basic usage such as fans, lighting and mobile charging. In the first phase, 250,000 households will receive solar panels

Read more on Warp News

💓 People who practice empathy with AI get better at showing compassion

A study with 968 participants shows that personalized feedback from an AI coach makes people significantly better at communicating with empathy. People who feel empathy often fail to express it – most believed they were good listeners, but independent assessment showed that few actually were.

Read more on Warp News

📰 Trust in journalists has nearly doubled in 20 years

44 percent of Swedes have high or fairly high trust in journalists, according to the latest survey from the SOM Institute. The share has risen from 24 percent in 2004, nearly doubling over two decades. At the same time, the share who think journalists do their job poorly has been cut in half.

Read more on Warp News

🚭 The share of Americans who smoke has dropped to a historic low

Less than ten percent of American adults smoked cigarettes in 2024, the first time the rate has reached single digits. Reduced smoking has contributed to nearly four million lung cancer deaths being averted between 1970 and 2022.

Read more on Warp News

🏠 Americans have tripled their living space per person since 1950

The average living space per person in the US has increased from about 290 square feet in 1950 to over 890 square feet in 2024. The share of overcrowded homes has fallen from over 20% in 1940 to under 6%.

Read more on Warp News

🦋 Rewilding in Scotland leads to sharply increased biodiversity

Rewilded land in Scotland has increased the number of suitable breeding territories for birds by 546% compared to non-rewilded land. The number of bumblebees and butterflies has increased more than tenfold, and the network is now estimated to support 2.5 million pollinating insects.

Read more on Warp News

🧒 Child poverty in Sweden drops to lowest level in ten years

The share of children living in families with a low income standard has fallen from 10 percent to 6 percent since 2014. 56 percent of all children live in families with a high income standard, that corresponds to more than 1.2 million children.

Read more on Warp News

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Majority live in families with high income standard

The share of children in Sweden growing up in families with a low income standard is now at its lowest in a decade. That is according to new statistics from Statistics Sweden, SCB.

In 2024, 6 percent of all children under 18 lived in families with a low income standard. That is a decrease from 10 percent in 2014. In absolute numbers, it amounts to 130,000 children, of which 63,000 are girls and 67,000 are boys.

At the same time, 56 percent of all children live in families with a high income standard, meaning the family's income is at least twice the estimated costs. That corresponds to more than 1.2 million children. An additional 36 percent live in families with a medium income standard.

The income standard measure describes how much money a family has left after taxes and fees, with any benefits included, relative to estimated costs for items such as food, housing, home insurance and childcare. The standard costs are calculated by the Swedish Consumer Agency and take into account household size, age composition and place of residence.

What does low income standard mean in monetary terms?

For a single parent with a three-year-old child, a low income standard means a disposable income below 17,240 Swedish kronor per month. For cohabiting parents with two children aged three and six, the threshold is 27,294 kronor per month. The amounts apply to residents in municipalities with more than 75,000 inhabitants outside the major metropolitan areas.

WALL-Y
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Feeling empathy is not enough

Empathy is central to human relationships. But actually expressing compassion in a way that makes others feel heard is difficult. Research shows that large language models in blinded tests are often judged as more empathic than the average person. At the same time, recipients feel less heard if they learn the response came from an AI.

This raises a question: can people learn from AI to become better at expressing empathy?

A research team from Northwestern University and Stanford University built the platform Lend an Ear to investigate exactly that. The study was published in March 2026 and included 968 participants who conducted 2,904 text-based conversations with AI role-playing partners. In total, 33,938 messages were generated.

How the experiment worked

Participants were randomly assigned to four groups: a control group with no feedback, a group that received short instructional videos, a group that received personalized feedback from an AI coach, and a group that received both video and AI coaching.

In each conversation, an AI partner played the role of a person in crisis. The scenarios included having lost a job, being passed over for a promotion, feeling undervalued at work, having a family member diagnosed with cancer, or losing a parent. Participants practiced providing support in three separate conversations with at least four turns and four minutes per conversation.

After each conversation, those in the AI coach group received individual feedback on six dimensions: encouraging elaboration, validating emotions, demonstrating understanding, giving unsolicited advice, being self-oriented, and dismissing emotions.

91 percent of participants rated the scenarios as quite or very realistic.

The AI coach produced clear results

Personalized feedback from the AI coach led to improvements across five of six pre-registered dimensions of empathic communication. Participants who received AI coaching improved all three positive behaviors compared to the control group. Encouraging elaboration increased by 0.648 standard deviations, validating emotions by 0.475, and demonstrating understanding by 0.459.

At the same time, negative behaviors decreased. Unsolicited advice-giving decreased by 0.679 standard deviations, dismissing emotions by 0.451, and self-oriented responses by 0.213.

In total, the AI coach produced an increase of 0.98 standard deviations in the overall empathy measure, corresponding to an improvement of 2.9 points.

In the control group, only 2.9 percent of participants showed reliable improvement. In the AI coaching group, the figure was 21.6 percent, and in the combined group 26.3 percent.

People overestimate their own empathy

The study revealed a clear gap between perceived and expressed empathy. The correlation between self-reported empathic ability and actual performance was essentially zero, with R² values between 0.000 and 0.003.

74 percent of participants believed they encouraged their conversation partner to share more "quite a bit" or "very much." According to the independent AI assessors, only 18 percent actually did so. For demonstrating understanding, the figures were 87 percent according to the participants themselves versus 9 percent according to the assessors.

The researchers call this a "silent empathy effect": people feel empathy but systematically fail to express it. The feeling of compassion does not automatically translate into words that make others feel heard.

Independent raters confirmed the improvement

In a second experiment, 150 independent raters were recruited via the platform Prolific. They were asked to compare pairs of conversations from the study and choose the more empathic one. The raters consistently preferred the conversations that the AI system had scored higher.

At a score difference of five points, raters chose the higher-ranked conversation 73 percent of the time. At a ten-point difference, the figure rose to 93 percent. Rankings based on human preferences correlated strongly with the AI assessments, with a Spearman correlation value of 0.85.

A mapping of empathic language

Using so-called k-sparse autoencoders, the researchers analyzed 29,520 sentences and identified 128 categories of empathic expressions. These were sorted into a four-part structure: affective empathy (25 percent of messages), cognitive empathy (27 percent), motivational empathy (26 percent), and misattuned behaviors (22 percent).

After AI coaching, the share of messages that validated emotions increased by 3.9 percentage points in personal scenarios and 2.9 percentage points in workplace scenarios. Advice-giving decreased by 3.8 and 5.1 percentage points respectively. Conversation length and number of turns did not change, suggesting that it was the quality, not the quantity, that improved.

A trainable skill

The researchers describe empathic communication as an idiom – a pattern of conversational moves that can be learned. Traditional training programs require experts and substantial resources. AI-based coaching can offer the same type of personalized feedback to anyone with internet access.

The study was conducted with a demographically representative sample of the US population. The participants' average age was 45.6 years, 51.8 percent were women, and the experiment took an average of 20 minutes to complete.

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Steady rise since 2004

Trust in journalists in Sweden has risen steadily over the past 20 years. This is shown by data from the national SOM survey, conducted by the SOM Institute at the University of Gothenburg.

In 2004, 24 percent had high or fairly high trust in journalists as a professional group. By 2025, that figure had risen to 44 percent. This represents an increase of 20 percentage points.

Fewer think journalists do their job poorly

The SOM Institute also asks specifically how much trust the public has in the way journalists carry out their work. A clear shift is visible here as well.

In 2004, 46 percent reported having very or fairly low trust in how journalists do their work. By 2025, that share had fallen to 23 percent. The group with high trust in how journalists do their job is now nearly twice as large as the group with low trust.

The group with neither high nor low trust has remained relatively stable. It was 27 percent in 2004 and stands at 34 percent in 2025.

The rise is particularly evident from 2018 onward. Between 2004 and 2018, the trust figure hovered between 24 and roughly 30 percent. After 2018, the increase accelerated.

Comparison with other professional groups

The SOM survey measures trust in a range of professional groups. Healthcare workers rank highest at 86 percent, followed by police at 78 percent and researchers at 73 percent.

Journalists, at 44 percent, sit some way below these groups. But they rank well above national politicians, who are at 27 percent, and communications professionals, who are at 25 percent.

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From 42 to below ten percent

The share of American adults who smoke cigarettes has never been this low. That is the finding of a new study published in NEJM Evidence.

The researchers analyzed nationally representative survey data and found that 9.9 percent of the adult population smoked cigarettes in 2024. It is the first time the rate has dropped below ten percent. The year before, in 2023, the figure was 10.8 percent. In actual numbers, the 2024 figure corresponds to roughly 25 million Americans.

The development becomes particularly clear in a longer perspective. In 1964, the same year the US surgeon general published his report on the health risks of smoking, 42 percent of American adults reported smoking. Following the report and broad public health campaigns, the rate declined slowly but steadily. Since the early 2000s, the decline has accelerated, largely because younger generations never started smoking.

Millions of averted deaths

Smoking has long been linked to an increased risk of cancer, particularly lung cancer, and other health problems. The decline in smoking is one of the major contributing factors to falling cancer mortality. According to a 2025 report from the American Cancer Society, reduced smoking has led to nearly four million lung cancer deaths being averted between 1970 and 2022.

Toward the 6.1 percent goal

The study is based on data from the National Health Interview Survey, an annual nationally representative survey of Americans' lifestyle habits conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If the current rate of decline continues, the US could meet or even exceed the federal goal of lowering the smoking rate to 6.1 percent by 2030.

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🎵 Others’ versions of Arise, arise

Last week I released my AI song, Arise, arise. In addition to putting it on Spotify (and many other platforms), it’s available on Suno, where I created the music.

That means you can make your own version of the song—which some people already have.

One is my quirky friend Basse, who made a Swedish dance band-style version by the somewhat dubious band Bengt-Lodiz (lodis means hobo in Sweidsh). The song is available here on Facebook.

Both UJK and Peppepop have made several versions. Here’s one from UJK and one from Peppepop.

It’s great fun to listen to your creations! Keep making them and sending them to me.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

💡 Premium Supporter content

🦋 The lord of the pessimists is dead – this was his great mistake

Dr. Paul Ehrlich has passed away. He was a cheerful pessimist who viewed humans as insects.

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

⛓️ Forced labor has nearly disappeared in the world

In 1789, 165 of 174 countries had large-scale forced labor – by 2024, only nine countries remained. The fastest change occurred after World War II, when the number of countries with widespread forced labor dropped from nearly 100 to 31 in just one generation.

Read more on Warp News

🧒 First vaccine that protects children from deadly E. coli infections

ETVAX is the first vaccine to show significant protection against E. coli infections in humans. The vaccine reduced moderate-to-severe diarrhea in infants under nine months by 68 percent. A phase 3 trial with 5,800 infants from low- and middle-income countries is about to begin.

Read more on Warp News

🌲 Sweden's forests are growing – every harvested tree is replaced with two to three new seedlings

Sweden has twice as much old-growth forest compared to 30 years ago, according to the National Forest Inventory. The timber volume in Swedish forests has doubled since the 1920s.

Read more on Warp News

👁️ Small chip in the eye restores sight to the blind

A 2-millimeter implant under the retina has restored vision in 26 of 32 blind patients. European launch is expected later this year, which would make PRIMA the first brain-computer interface product for vision to reach the market.

Read more on Warp News

🔍 AI agent screened nearly 2,000 genes and found new pathways against gut disease

Eubiota is an AI agent system that autonomously studies the gut microbiome. By analyzing over 10,000 scientific papers in hours, it screened 1,945 bacterial genes and discovered a DNA repair mechanism that helps gut bacteria survive inflammatory stress.

Read more on Warp News

📉 UK emissions at lowest level since 1872

Greenhouse gas emissions fell by 2.4 percent in 2025 and are now 54 percent below 1990 levels. Coal use halved and is at its lowest since 1600, while gas use dropped to the lowest level since 1992.

Read more on Warp News

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Three times as much space

In 1950, an average American had access to about 290 square feet of living space, equivalent to roughly 27 square meters. By 2024, that figure had risen to around 890 square feet, or just over 80 square meters. This is shown by data compiled from sources including a study published in PLOS One, the US Energy Information Administration's housing survey RECS, and the Census Bureau.

The increase has been nearly uninterrupted for 74 years. During every five-year period since 1950, living space per person has grown.

Homes grew – and households shrank

Two factors have driven the development. The first is that American homes have simply gotten larger. A newly built single-family home had an average area of about 90 square meters in 1950. By 2024, that figure was around 220 square meters, according to the Census Bureau. That is more than a doubling.

The second factor is that households have gotten smaller. In 1950, the average American household consisted of 3.4 people. Today, the figure is about 2.5 people. The share of single-person households has increased from 9 percent in 1950 to 29 percent in 2024, according to the Census Bureau.

The researchers behind the PLOS One study from 2015 found that the US population grew fivefold between 1891 and 2010, while total residential floor space increased tenfold. The declining household size – cut in half over 120 years – was a key driver behind the rapid growth in the number of homes and total floor space.

Overcrowding disappeared

The trend has had concrete consequences. In 1940, 20.2 percent of American homes were classified as overcrowded, according to 24/7 Wall St./Census Bureau. By 2000, that share had fallen to 5.7 percent.

According to the University of Michigan's Center for Sustainable Systems, the average living space per person in existing homes grew from around 52 square meters in the 1970s to 73 square meters in the 2000s.

A link to economic growth

The researchers behind the PLOS One study found a close relationship between living space per person and GDP per capita in the US. The two measures have tracked each other for more than a hundred years. As the economy grew, so did housing. The relationship was remarkably stable, with one exception during the Great Depression in the 1930s.

The study, conducted at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and funded by the US Department of Energy, covered the period from 1891 to 2010. Data for the years up to 2024 come from the EIA's housing survey RECS 2020 and the Census Bureau.

Large by international comparison

American living space per person is large even in an international perspective. An average American has access to around 66 square meters of living space, based on the existing housing stock. In the United Kingdom, the equivalent figure is approximately 40 square meters per person, according to The Mortgage Reports.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
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News via Ramez Naam.

New research from the Northwoods Rewilding Network in Scotland shows that rewilding leads to sharp increases in biodiversity. The network, coordinated by the organization SCOTLAND: The Big Picture, comprises over a hundred landholdings spread across Scotland.

The survey compared rewilded areas with adjacent non-rewilded areas at eleven sites. Specialist ecologists and surveyors visited the sites during spring and summer. They surveyed birds at five sites and bumblebees and butterflies at a further six.

Clear results across the network

In total, bumblebees and butterflies were recorded more than 3,000 times, and 1,000 pairs of breeding birds were documented along over 120 kilometers of walked transects.

On rewilded land, the number of bird species increased by 261 percent and the number of breeding territories by 546 percent. For pollinators, the species richness of bumblebees and butterflies more than doubled, and their abundance increased more than tenfold. The amount of nectar-rich plants in the rewilded areas increased by around 250 percent.

Ecologist Ross Macleod at Liverpool John Moores University, who analyzed the data, describes the results as unambiguous.

Threatened species recovering

The survey also showed increased variety and numbers of red- and amber-listed birds, meaning species assessed as being of conservation concern. Species such as spotted flycatcher, cuckoo, and woodcock are relatively common in Northwoods rewilded areas, despite declining sharply at a national level.

Nature restoration and business combined

Several of the rewilded sites show that ecological recovery can happen alongside economic activity. Comrie Croft was previously a livestock farm and conifer plantation. Today it is a regenerative farm and eco-tourism destination that receives 50,000 visitors a year. The site has four times as many birds as before.

Argaty Red Kites at Lerrocks Farm near Stirling is a livestock farm that simultaneously functions as a rewilding project. Visitors can join guided tours and sit in hides to observe wildlife. The rewilded areas have ten times as many bumblebees, and the native woodlands now support more than 15 times as many birds as before. The woodlands are also home to beavers and red kites, while also providing shelter for the farm's livestock.

4.2 million pounds in local investment

The network has contributed 4.2 million pounds in local investment since its launch in 2021. A separate analysis estimates that the rewilded landscapes collectively support 2.5 million pollinating insects.

The survey was carried out at sites where rewilding has involved everything from converting conifer plantations into naturally regenerating native woodlands, to increasing wildflower species in cattle pasture.

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No electricity costs for the poorest

The state government of Bihar, India, has launched a program providing free rooftop solar panels to households living below the poverty line. The program is called Kutir Jyoti Yojana and targets families with so-called BPL cards, an Indian system for identifying the poorest households.

The entire installation cost is covered by the state. Families do not have to pay anything at any stage of the process. The only requirement for households is that they are responsible for basic cleaning and safety around the panels.

The solar panels will provide families with enough electricity to run fans, turn on lights and charge mobile phones without worrying about electricity bills. This means zero electricity costs for basic usage. The savings come in addition to the 125 free units of electricity that the Bihar government already offers residents.

In the first phase, the government will install solar panels with a capacity of 1.5 kilowatts on the rooftops of 250,000 households.

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🎵 Others’ versions of Arise, arise

Last week I released my AI song, Arise, arise. In addition to putting it on Spotify (and many other platforms), it’s available on Suno, where I created the music.

That means you can make your own version of the song—which some people already have.

One is my quirky friend Basse, who made a Swedish dance band-style version by the somewhat dubious band Bengt-Lodiz (lodis means hobo in Sweidsh). The song is available here on Facebook.

Both UJK and Peppepop have made several versions. Here’s one from UJK and one from Peppepop.

It’s great fun to listen to your creations! Keep making them and sending them to me.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

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🦋 The lord of the pessimists is dead – this was his great mistake

Dr. Paul Ehrlich has passed away. He was a cheerful pessimist who viewed humans as insects.

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

⛓️ Forced labor has nearly disappeared in the world

In 1789, 165 of 174 countries had large-scale forced labor – by 2024, only nine countries remained. The fastest change occurred after World War II, when the number of countries with widespread forced labor dropped from nearly 100 to 31 in just one generation.

Read more on Warp News

🧒 First vaccine that protects children from deadly E. coli infections

ETVAX is the first vaccine to show significant protection against E. coli infections in humans. The vaccine reduced moderate-to-severe diarrhea in infants under nine months by 68 percent. A phase 3 trial with 5,800 infants from low- and middle-income countries is about to begin.

Read more on Warp News

🌲 Sweden's forests are growing – every harvested tree is replaced with two to three new seedlings

Sweden has twice as much old-growth forest compared to 30 years ago, according to the National Forest Inventory. The timber volume in Swedish forests has doubled since the 1920s.

Read more on Warp News

👁️ Small chip in the eye restores sight to the blind

A 2-millimeter implant under the retina has restored vision in 26 of 32 blind patients. European launch is expected later this year, which would make PRIMA the first brain-computer interface product for vision to reach the market.

Read more on Warp News

🔍 AI agent screened nearly 2,000 genes and found new pathways against gut disease

Eubiota is an AI agent system that autonomously studies the gut microbiome. By analyzing over 10,000 scientific papers in hours, it screened 1,945 bacterial genes and discovered a DNA repair mechanism that helps gut bacteria survive inflammatory stress.

Read more on Warp News

📉 UK emissions at lowest level since 1872

Greenhouse gas emissions fell by 2.4 percent in 2025 and are now 54 percent below 1990 levels. Coal use halved and is at its lowest since 1600, while gas use dropped to the lowest level since 1992.

Read more on Warp News

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From 165 countries to nine

For much of history, forced labor was widespread and brutal. Tens of millions of people were made to work under the threat of violence or punishment. At its most extreme, this meant slavery: people were bought, sold, and inherited like property.

States did not hide this. Governments permitted forced labor, protected slave owners through legislation and physical force, and used forced labor themselves. Most people regarded slavery and forced labor as a normal part of economic and social life.

Today the situation looks completely different, according to Our World in Data. Many governments have abolished their own use of forced labor, changed laws, and now prosecute those who exploit it. Most people see forced labor as abhorrent and expect governments to protect people from it.

A quantitative overview

Data from the Varieties of Democracy project (V-Dem) at the University of Gothenburg shows how the change has unfolded globally. V-Dem measures large-scale forced labor, meaning forced labor that was common and entrenched – tolerated, enabled, or imposed by authorities, rather than isolated abuse.

In 1789, 165 of the 174 countries studied had not yet abolished large-scale forced labor. Only nine countries lacked large-scale forced labor entirely throughout the period since the late 18th century.

Rapid change after World War II

A small number of countries reduced forced labor substantially as early as the beginning of the 19th century. The rest of the 1800s and the first decades of the 1900s saw steady progress in the fight against forced labor.

The pace increased sharply in the mid-20th century. At the end of World War II, nearly 100 countries still had large-scale forced labor systems. Just one generation later, by 1975, that number had fallen to 31. In recent decades, the number of countries with widespread forced labor has continued to decline, though at a slower pace.

Slavery was abolished but oppression continued

Much of the change is surprisingly recent. In many places, slavery was abolished during the 19th century, but similarly oppressive systems continued under new names and legal frameworks. It was not until the decades after World War II that decolonization dismantled the highly coercive colonial labor systems in many more countries.

Difficult to measure

Forced labor can take many forms. A person may be forced to work because they are legally treated as property, because they are pressured to repay a loan with unfair terms, or because their employer confiscates important documents such as passports or identity papers. It occurs in agriculture, mining, construction, domestic work, and the sex trade.

Legal rules and reality often do not match. A government may ban forced labor on paper but lack the will or ability to enforce the ban. No country is completely free of forced labor – there are cases in every country even today. But the difference between countries with rare cases and countries with large-scale systems is crucial. In 2024, nine countries still had large-scale forced labor.

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“It is a pleasure to meet this charming and sharp 90-year-old, who has just recently published his autobiography Life.

‘I am an old man now. These may very well be my last words, who knows,’ says Ehrlich with a characteristically mischievous smile.”

He was a sharp communicator and became one of the most influential people in the world in the 1960s and 1970s. The major breakthrough for him and his ideas was the book The Population Bomb, published in 1968.

It was filled with very clear predictions about all the misery that would befall humanity:

“In the 1970s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to death despite any crash programs launched now. At this late date, nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate...”

The ideas spread both widely and to the highest levels.

I wrote about this in my book The Fifth Acceleration, when I compared it to today’s AI doomerism:

Two American presidents, Johnson and Nixon, advocated population control. UN Secretary-General U Thant worked to address the “population explosion.” Indira Gandhi pushed through sterilization programs. World Bank president Robert McNamara considered it humanity’s greatest problem after nuclear war. Ecologist Garrett Hardin warned that “the freedom to breed will bring ruin to all.” Martin Luther King called overpopulation the plague of modern times.

Many politicians, experts, researchers, journalists, and organizations agreed: if the world’s population continued to grow, the world would face famines unlike anything seen before.

They were wrong.

Not just a little wrong. Completely, entirely, spectacularly wrong.

When they believed starvation deaths would accelerate, a new era for humanity instead began—one with dramatically improved living conditions.

The number of people dying from starvation fell by 90 percent between the 1960s and 1970s.

Looking at a longer time perspective, the difference is even more striking. Between 1900 and 1969, an average of 635 people per 100,000 died from starvation per decade. From 1970 to the early 2020s, that figure declined by 95 percent.

In absolute terms, the decline is just as remarkable. Between 1900 and 1960, an average of 14.5 million people died from starvation per decade. From the 1970s to the 2020s, that number fell to 1.6 million per decade.

And this happened while the world’s population more than doubled, from 3.55 billion when Paul Ehrlich wrote his book to over 8 billion in the early 2020s.

Paul Ehrlich’s mistake

How could he have been so wrong? When I read Paul Ehrlich’s autobiography, I suddenly understood why.

Before he began being wrong about humanity’s future, Ehrlich was an entomologist, another word for an insect researcher. He specialized in butterflies.

Butterflies are beautiful, but not particularly creative. I think he saw humans the way he saw butterflies and other insects.

If there are too many insects in one place, they run out of food and die. He applied that reasoning to humans.

And in one sense, he was right. If food runs out, we die. But he drastically underestimated human creativity, drive, and our ability to solve such problems.

Ehrlich saw people as a burden rather than a resource. He saw a mouth to be fed, not a brain with the potential to come up with a world-changing idea, and the will to carry it out.

That is exactly what happened in the 1960s and 1970s. New, more resilient crops were developed, and food production increased dramatically.

Insects could never have done that, but humans could.

We have shown that many times throughout history.

If there is anything to learn from Paul Ehrlich, it is not to repeat his mistake.

Do not underestimate human potential.

Mathias Sundin
Angry Optimist

Most common cause of childhood diarrhea

Infections caused by enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli bacteria, abbreviated ETEC, are the most common cause of diarrhea in children in low-income countries. In children under five, whose immune systems are still developing, the infections can lead to malnourishment. Up to 42,000 children die from ETEC infections every year.

Researchers have now published results from the first large-scale study of a vaccine against ETEC in children. The study was conducted in Gambia and published in the journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases. The vaccine is called ETVAX and provided immunity against the pathogens without serious side effects.

How the vaccine works

ETEC bacteria have so-called adhesin proteins that allow them to attach to the intestinal mucosa. The bacteria then release toxins that cause watery diarrhea and abdominal cramping. In low-income countries, lack of sanitation and clean drinking water increases the risk of infections.

There is currently no approved vaccine against E. coli infections in humans. An oral cholera vaccine called Dukoral provides some partial protection against certain forms of ETEC diarrhea, but it has limitations.

Immunologist Ann-Mari Svennerholm at the University of Gothenburg, who co-authored the study, explains that ETEC bacteria have 26 different adhesin proteins and two types of toxins, making them harder to vaccinate against than cholera. Her research team selected the four most common adhesin proteins, which are found on 80 percent of all enterotoxigenic E. coli. These were combined with an inert part of a toxin and a component that stimulates intestinal immune responses. ETVAX was developed by Scandinavian Biopharma.

Results from the Gambia study

In the study, 4,936 children in Gambia between the ages of six and 18 months received three doses of either the oral vaccine or a placebo. The children were followed for two years. The study was randomized and double-blinded, meaning neither researchers nor participants knew who received the vaccine or the placebo.

ETVAX increased antibody levels against multiple ETEC adhesin proteins, particularly after the third dose. When the researchers excluded cases with co-infections from other gut pathogens such as Shigella, Cryptosporidium, rotavirus and norovirus, the vaccine reduced moderate-to-severe ETEC diarrhea episodes by 26 percent compared with the placebo group.

Strong effect in the youngest children

When all cases including co-infections were counted, ETVAX reduced moderate-to-severe ETEC diarrhea by 48 percent in all children. In infants younger than nine months, the reduction was 68 percent. This shows the value of vaccinating young infants who have not yet developed natural immunity to intestinal pathogens.

Co-author Thomas Wierzba, a professor of infectious diseases at Wake Forest School of Medicine, notes that ETVAX also reduced moderate-to-severe diarrhea caused by viruses, bacteria or other parasites by 21 percent. This suggests the vaccine provides partial protection against multiple types of gut pathogens.

Epidemiologist David Sack at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who was not involved in the study, describes it as a high-quality study thanks to its use of multiple outcome measures. ETVAX will now be evaluated in a phase 3 trial approved by the European Medicines Agency, with 5,800 infants between the ages of six and nine months from low- and middle-income countries.

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Replanting required by law since 1903

Sweden is 70 percent covered by forest. Of that, 75 percent is managed, and approximately one percent is harvested annually. Every harvested tree is replaced with two to three new seedlings. In total, around 400 million trees are planted per year in Swedish forests. In addition, various measures are taken to promote natural seeding.

Reforestation is one of the cornerstones of Swedish forestry. It has been required by law since 1903. This means that every year, more trees are planted than are felled.

Twice as much old-growth forest

The share of old-growth forest in Sweden has increased in recent decades. According to the National Forest Inventory, there are now 3.7 million hectares of forest older than 140 years. That is twice as much as 30 years ago.

The timber volume in Swedish forests has also doubled since the 1920s. That figure is also measured by the National Forest Inventory.

Knowledge about forests is low

A Demoskop survey conducted on behalf of the Swedish Forest Industries Federation shows that many Swedes lack basic knowledge about how forests are developing. Only 19 percent know that more trees are planted than harvested. Only 18 percent know that the amount of old-growth forest has doubled. A full 43 percent incorrectly believe that old-growth forest has declined. And only 21 percent are aware that timber volume has doubled since the 1920s – 40 percent believe the trend has gone in the opposite direction.

Viveka Beckeman, CEO of the Swedish Forest Industries Federation, argues that more basic facts are needed in the public discussion about how forests are managed and developed.

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🎵 When tone-deaf people can create music

In my book on AI, I wrote that creativity is unleashed when people who are tone-deaf can create music.

I’m not tone-deaf, but I sing quite off-key, can’t read sheet music, and can’t play any instrument.

Despite that, I can make music — with AI.

Since 2024 I’ve made quite a few songs. Most of them have been mediocre, but as the technology has improved, as I’ve become better at creating, and not least more creative myself, the quality has increased.

Then one day I made a song that I genuinely thought was really good. Good enough that I dared to play it publicly at my book launch. Afterwards, a couple of people even reached out asking how they could get it.

A very surprising development, since I had never once imagined that I would help create music that someone else actually liked.

My idea was to take a famous Swedish poem by Karin Boye, In Movement, (I rörelse in Swedish), as the lyrics, and then experiment until I found a melody, genre, and singing voice that I felt suited it.

The sated day is never held up first.
The greatest day is a day of thirst.

Though goals may give some meaning to our quest,
the road itself is life's most worthy test.

The finest goal: a rest that cannot last,
where fire is lit and bread is broken fast.

In places where you stay but one night long,
your sleep is sound, your dream is full of song.

Arise, arise! The new day calls to you.
Our endless, great adventure starts anew.

The song is called Arise, arise (Bryt upp, bryt upp in Swedish) and is now available on Spotify and many other platforms.

AI has made it much easier to create covers of songs, so instead of only releasing the version I like best, I made six different versions. Jazz, metal, singer-songwriter, and so on. You can find them all in this playlist.

I've also made an English version – Arise, arise – that you can find too on Spotify.

But it doesn’t stop there. The music was made in Suno, and the song is available there as well, so you and others can create your own covers of it.

You’re very welcome to try — and if you make something good, send it to me and I’ll share it on the website and with others in this newsletter. You can find the songs on Suno here.

This week’s text is about this song: 🎹 Can an unmusical, washed-up politician create a hit song? (Probably not, but worth a try)

And if you missed it, last week I also wrote about AI music — though then about how I think it will affect the music industry.

Here is the English version of the song: Arise, arise
And the Swedish version: Bryt upp, bryt upp

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

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🎹 Can an unmusical, washed-up politician create a hit song? (Probably not, but worth a try)

I’ve made a song based on a famous poem. Make your own version too.

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💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

🐂 European bison have increased from 60 to 9,000 – now the species expands in Spain

Nine European bison have been released in the Iberian Highlands in Spain as part of an international research study. The number of European bison has increased from just over 2,500 to around 9,000 individuals over the past decade.

Read more on Warp News

🍻 GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic reduce risk of substance abuse and addiction

A large study of more than 600,000 U.S. veterans shows that GLP-1 drugs were associated with a 14 percent lower risk of developing new substance use disorders. Among people with existing substance use disorders, overdoses dropped by 40 percent and substance-related deaths were cut in half.

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🚯 Over 25 million kilograms of trash removed from oceans and waterways in 2025

The organization's total amount of collected trash has now surpassed 45 million kilograms. A new program, the 30 Cities Program, will tackle a third of all plastic waste reaching the oceans from the world's most polluted urban areas.

Read more on Warp News

Ukraine builds new power grid with solar, wind and batteries that better withstands Russian attacks

A decentralized power grid with solar, wind and batteries has fewer central points that can be knocked out, unlike the old system with large power plants and centralized transmission lines.

Read more on Warp News

🦾 Humanoid robots get AI brain and are put to work in car factories

Google Gemini AI is being integrated into the humanoid robot Atlas, enabling it to understand its surroundings and handle unfamiliar objects. The robots will soon be tested in Hyundai’s car factories. The goal is to make Gemini a shared operating system for robots, similar to Android in smartphones.

Read more on Warp News

🌊 The Soviet Union drained the Aral Sea – now it's filling up again

The Aral Sea was once the world’s fourth-largest lake. When the Soviet Union diverted two rivers for cotton farming, it shrank rapidly. Now the trend has reversed: the North Aral Sea’s surface has grown by 36% in 20 years, water volume has nearly doubled, and 20 fish species have returned.

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26 of 32 patients regained their sight

Science Corporation's retinal implant PRIMA has restored vision in 81 percent of blind trial participants in a clinical study. The results are published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The study, called PRIMAvera, included 38 participants with geographic atrophy caused by age-related macular degeneration, one of the most common causes of irreversible blindness. Of the 32 assessed after twelve months, 26 showed clinically meaningful improvement in visual acuity. On average, vision improved by five lines on an eye chart. Approximately 84 percent could read letters, numbers and words again.

Six participants were not assessed: three had died, one withdrew from the study and two were unavailable. Accounting for dropout, researchers estimated that 80 percent of all participants would have improved.

Doctor Mahi Muqit, senior vitreoretinal consultant at Moorfields Eye Hospital, described the results as a new era in artificial vision. No other experimental treatment has previously restored central vision in patients with advanced geographic atrophy at this level.

How the chip works

The PRIMA system consists of three parts: a 2-millimeter wireless implant surgically placed under the retina, a pair of augmented reality glasses and a pocket processor. The glasses capture a scene, AI identifies the most important object and near-infrared light projects the image onto the chip. The chip converts the light into electrical signals. Remaining nerve cells in the retina then relay the signals to the brain as vision.

The implant is 30 micrometers thin, half the thickness of a human hair. It has no battery and no wires. The surgery takes under two hours and can be performed by any trained vitreoretinal surgeon.

From Neuralink to his own company

Max Hodak was co-founder and president of Neuralink. He left the company in 2021 and founded Science Corporation. Five years later, the company has raised a total of 490 million dollars and is valued at 1.5 billion dollars. That makes Science Corp the second most valuable brain-computer interface company in the world.

The latest funding round of 230 million dollars includes investors such as Lightspeed, Khosla Ventures, Y Combinator, Quiet Capital and IQT, the CIA's venture capital arm for national security technology.

Next steps for the treatment

Today, PRIMA treats the most advanced cases of age-related macular degeneration, corresponding to between 3,000 and 6,000 new patients per year in the United States. In total, more than five million people worldwide are affected by the disease.

Science Corp is planning a new trial for Stargardt disease and retinitis pigmentosa, inherited conditions that affect patients at a significantly younger age. Two patients are to receive implants before the end of June. The company is also developing a higher-resolution chip for less severe vision loss and a biohybrid brain device using engineered living neurons, with human testing planned for the end of 2027.

Sheila Irvine, one of the patients in the trial at Moorfields, described her vision before the implant as two black discs blocking all central sight. After the surgery, she could read prescription labels, tiny writing on tins and do crossword puzzles again. European commercial launch is expected later this year.

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Four agents working together

Eubiota was developed by researchers at Stanford University and Chan Zuckerberg Biohub in San Francisco. The system consists of four specialized AI agents that share a common memory: a planner that sets the strategy, an executor that runs tools and database searches, a verifier that checks whether the evidence holds up, and a generator that compiles the results with source references.

Unlike many other AI systems for research, Eubiota is built on an open model with eight billion parameters (Qwen3-8B) optimized with reinforcement learning. This strategy allows the system to learn from the entire reasoning chain rather than individual steps. Across six different benchmarks, Eubiota achieved 87.7 percent average accuracy, compared with 77.3 percent for GPT-5.1 and 67.2 percent for the base model Qwen3-8B without the agent framework.

Genes that protect bacteria during inflammation

In the first case study, Eubiota was tasked with identifying which genes help gut bacteria survive the chemical stress that occurs during intestinal inflammation. The body produces nitric oxide as part of its immune defense, and this gas damages bacterial DNA.

Eubiota screened 1,945 candidate genes across 118 whole-genome-sequenced gut bacterial strains. The system analyzed 10,867 scientific papers across five independent runs and identified genes including uvrA and ruvA, both linked to DNA repair. Five of the ten top-ranked genes showed clear growth defects under nitric oxide exposure in the laboratory (P < 0.05). The same genes were also overrepresented in gut samples from patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in two independent datasets.

A bacterial cocktail that reduces colitis in mice

Eubiota was then tasked with designing a synthetic bacterial group to treat intestinal inflammation. The system selected four strains: Blautia hansenii, Bifidobacterium breve, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, and Roseburia intestinalis. The selection was based on these species collectively contributing butyrate production, mucosal barrier protection, and immunomodulatory properties.

The researchers tested this group in a mouse model of colitis. The mice that received the bacterial treatment had lower weight loss, lower disease activity index scores, and lower levels of the inflammation marker lipocalin-2 compared with the control group. Colon length, a measure of inflammatory damage, was also better preserved.

Antibiotics that spare beneficial bacteria

In a third case study, Eubiota designed an antibiotic cocktail consisting of piperacillin, tazobactam, and amikacin at specific concentrations tailored to eliminate three pathogenic bacteria (Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Citrobacter portucalensis, and Klebsiella pneumoniae) while preserving beneficial gut bacteria such as Bacteroides and Bifidobacterium. Laboratory tests under anaerobic conditions showed that the cocktail inhibited the disease-causing bacteria while commensal species were partially preserved.

Anti-inflammatory compounds from a dietary study

Finally, Eubiota was asked to analyze 397 metabolites that were elevated in participants eating a vegan diet in the Twins Nutrition Study, a controlled trial with identical twins at Stanford. The system ranked the metabolites by likely anti-inflammatory effect and identified five top candidates. All five reduced NF-κB signaling in immune cells in laboratory tests (P < 0.05). Among them, 3-methoxycatechol showed a dose response at concentrations between 10 and 50 micromoles.

38 times faster than manual review

A comparison showed that Eubiota on average analyzed 920 unique scientific papers per run in approximately 1.2 hours using two GPUs. The equivalent manual review was estimated at 46 hours, representing a 38-fold increase in speed. The system's code and training data are available under an open license, and an interactive web platform is accessible at eubiota.ai.

Found via BAIO.

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Emissions lower than during the 1926 general strike

The UK's greenhouse gas emissions fell to 364 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief. This is the lowest level since 1872 and means emissions are now below the level recorded during the 1926 general strike, when the country's industrial base was brought to a standstill, according to Carbon Brief.

Since 1990, emissions have fallen in 27 of 36 years. During the same period, the country's GDP has nearly doubled, with growth of 95 percent.

Coal use at its lowest in 400 years

The UK's coal consumption fell by 56 percent in 2025, landing just below one million tonnes. That is 97 percent lower than the 37 million tonnes burned in 2015, and 99.6 percent below the peak of 221 million tonnes in 1956. The level is the lowest since the year 1600 – when Elizabeth I was queen and Shakespeare was writing Hamlet.

The last coal-fired power plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire, closed on 30 September 2024. The closure accounted for nearly three-fifths of the decline in coal demand in 2025. A further third was due to reduced coal-based steel production, including the shutdown of two blast furnaces at Port Talbot in Wales in 2024.

The Port Talbot site is now being converted to electric arc furnace production, a method that does not require coal. The same shift is under discussion for the British Steel plant in Scunthorpe.

Gas use down to 1992 levels

Gas consumption fell by 1.5 percent in 2025, to the lowest level since 1992. Since 2010, total gas demand has dropped by nearly two-fifths. Half of that reduction is due to a 50 percent fall in gas-fired electricity generation, replaced by renewable energy. A third comes from reduced heating of homes, thanks to more efficient gas boilers and better insulation.

In 2025, lower demand from building heating and industry contributed roughly equally to the decline. Record-high temperatures and high gas prices were contributing factors.

Electric vehicles cut emissions despite rising traffic

Oil use fell by 0.9 percent in 2025, even though traffic increased by around one percent. A key explanation is the electric vehicle fleet. There are now nearly three million electric cars, plug-in hybrids and electric vans on UK roads, making up five percent of the car fleet and two percent of vans.

These electrified vehicles are cutting emissions by more than 7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. The 700,000 new electric vehicles registered in 2025 alone saved nearly 2 million tonnes. EV owners saved a total of 2 million pounds in lower fuel costs during the year, equivalent to more than 700 pounds per electric car and more than 1,100 pounds per electric van.

At the same time, the number of diesel vehicles has decreased by 2.8 million since 2019.

Heat pumps growing but from a low base

Heat pump sales increased by 25 percent in 2025 but still stood at just 125,000 installations. By the end of the year, the UK had a total of around 450,000 domestic heat pumps, saving a combined total of approximately 0.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide compared with gas heating.

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🎵 When tone-deaf people can create music

In my book on AI, I wrote that creativity is unleashed when people who are tone-deaf can create music.

I’m not tone-deaf, but I sing quite off-key, can’t read sheet music, and can’t play any instrument.

Despite that, I can make music — with AI.

Since 2024 I’ve made quite a few songs. Most of them have been mediocre, but as the technology has improved, as I’ve become better at creating, and not least more creative myself, the quality has increased.

Then one day I made a song that I genuinely thought was really good. Good enough that I dared to play it publicly at my book launch. Afterwards, a couple of people even reached out asking how they could get it.

A very surprising development, since I had never once imagined that I would help create music that someone else actually liked.

My idea was to take a famous Swedish poem by Karin Boye, In Movement, (I rörelse in Swedish), as the lyrics, and then experiment until I found a melody, genre, and singing voice that I felt suited it.

The sated day is never held up first.
The greatest day is a day of thirst.

Though goals may give some meaning to our quest,
the road itself is life's most worthy test.

The finest goal: a rest that cannot last,
where fire is lit and bread is broken fast.

In places where you stay but one night long,
your sleep is sound, your dream is full of song.

Arise, arise! The new day calls to you.
Our endless, great adventure starts anew.

The song is called Arise, arise (Bryt upp, bryt upp in Swedish) and is now available on Spotify and many other platforms.

AI has made it much easier to create covers of songs, so instead of only releasing the version I like best, I made six different versions. Jazz, metal, singer-songwriter, and so on. You can find them all in this playlist.

I've also made an English version – Arise, arise – that you can find too on Spotify.

But it doesn’t stop there. The music was made in Suno, and the song is available there as well, so you and others can create your own covers of it.

You’re very welcome to try — and if you make something good, send it to me and I’ll share it on the website and with others in this newsletter. You can find the songs on Suno here.

This week’s text is about this song: 🎹 Can an unmusical, washed-up politician create a hit song? (Probably not, but worth a try)

And if you missed it, last week I also wrote about AI music — though then about how I think it will affect the music industry.

Here is the English version of the song: Arise, arise
And the Swedish version: Bryt upp, bryt upp

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

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🎹 Can an unmusical, washed-up politician create a hit song? (Probably not, but worth a try)

I’ve made a song based on a famous poem. Make your own version too.

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

🐂 European bison have increased from 60 to 9,000 – now the species expands in Spain

Nine European bison have been released in the Iberian Highlands in Spain as part of an international research study. The number of European bison has increased from just over 2,500 to around 9,000 individuals over the past decade.

Read more on Warp News

🍻 GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic reduce risk of substance abuse and addiction

A large study of more than 600,000 U.S. veterans shows that GLP-1 drugs were associated with a 14 percent lower risk of developing new substance use disorders. Among people with existing substance use disorders, overdoses dropped by 40 percent and substance-related deaths were cut in half.

Read more on Warp News

🚯 Over 25 million kilograms of trash removed from oceans and waterways in 2025

The organization's total amount of collected trash has now surpassed 45 million kilograms. A new program, the 30 Cities Program, will tackle a third of all plastic waste reaching the oceans from the world's most polluted urban areas.

Read more on Warp News

Ukraine builds new power grid with solar, wind and batteries that better withstands Russian attacks

A decentralized power grid with solar, wind and batteries has fewer central points that can be knocked out, unlike the old system with large power plants and centralized transmission lines.

Read more on Warp News

🦾 Humanoid robots get AI brain and are put to work in car factories

Google Gemini AI is being integrated into the humanoid robot Atlas, enabling it to understand its surroundings and handle unfamiliar objects. The robots will soon be tested in Hyundai’s car factories. The goal is to make Gemini a shared operating system for robots, similar to Android in smartphones.

Read more on Warp News

🌊 The Soviet Union drained the Aral Sea – now it's filling up again

The Aral Sea was once the world’s fourth-largest lake. When the Soviet Union diverted two rivers for cotton farming, it shrank rapidly. Now the trend has reversed: the North Aral Sea’s surface has grown by 36% in 20 years, water volume has nearly doubled, and 20 fish species have returned.

Read more on Warp News

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Effect across multiple substances

Drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, originally developed for diabetes and obesity, also appear to dampen cravings for alcohol and drugs. A new study published in The BMJ analyzed medical records from more than 600,000 U.S. veterans and found that people prescribed GLP-1 drugs for diabetes had a 14 percent lower risk of developing new substance use disorders related to cannabis, alcohol, cocaine, nicotine, or opioids, compared to people on a different type of diabetes medication.

The study was led by epidemiologist Ziyad Al-Aly at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System. The patients had an average age of 65 and were predominantly white men. They were treated with either a GLP-1 analog or an SGLT-2 inhibitor, a drug class whose action is limited to the kidneys.

Fewer overdoses and deaths

In the three years following the start of treatment, people on GLP-1 drugs had roughly 30 percent fewer drug-related emergency room visits compared to those on SGLT-2 inhibitors. Drug-related hospitalizations dropped by 25 percent and overdoses by 40 percent. Substance-related deaths were cut in half and suicidal thoughts or suicide attempts decreased by 25 percent.

The effect appears to hold across multiple substances. Al-Aly noted that no existing medication can treat such a broad range of substance use disorders. Until now, addiction treatment has worked with one substance at a time.

How the drugs work

GLP-1 analogs stimulate receptors in the pancreas to release insulin, but they are also active in the brain. Researchers are investigating how the drugs may affect reward pathways that drive overconsumption of drugs and alcohol. Addiction researcher Carolina Haass-Koffler at Brown University, who was not involved in the study, noted that alcohol use disorder can also involve metabolic problems and inflammation, which these drugs help address.

Ongoing clinical trials

Some doctors are already prescribing GLP-1 drugs off-label for substance use disorders. But researcher Lorenzo Leggio at the National Institute on Drug Abuse pointed out that the study's findings are not sufficient to choose GLP-1 drugs over approved addiction treatments such as naltrexone. A recent randomized trial showed reduced alcohol consumption among people with alcohol use disorder who took semaglutide, but another trial using a different GLP-1 drug showed no clear effect. More clinical trials are underway, including one by Eli Lilly, with results expected later this year.

Could reach more patients

Leggio, who is leading an ongoing trial of semaglutide for alcohol use disorder, highlighted that GLP-1 drugs could reach patients who otherwise go untreated. A full 98 percent of people with alcohol use disorder currently do not receive any of the approved medications, partly because general physicians are not familiar with addiction drugs. At the same time, more than 85 percent of people diagnosed with diabetes receive approved treatment, and general physicians are comfortable prescribing these drugs. If GLP-1 drugs are approved for substance use disorders, addiction treatment could move from specialist care into primary care.

Haass-Koffler also pointed out that GLP-1 drugs could reduce the stigma around pharmaceutical treatment of addiction. A treatment already used for diabetes is more accepted in society than existing addiction treatments.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

“Dad, can you play Arise.”

Arise is a song he likes and that he seems to associate with riding in the car.

What makes it both incredible and surreal is that it’s a song I made.

I, who can neither sing, read sheet music, nor play any instrument, have made music – that my son likes!

It’s a fantastic feeling.

How did it happen? Well, it’s AI of course.

The song’s full title is Arise, Arise and it is a musical version of Karin Boye’s poem In Motion. The original is called I rörelse, and is one the most famous and well-liked poems in Sweden. Here is my translation:

The sated day is never held up first.
The greatest day is a day of thirst.

Though goals may give some meaning to our quest,
the road itself is life's most worthy test.

The finest goal: a rest that cannot last,
where fire is lit and bread is broken fast.

In places where you stay but one night long,
your sleep is sound, your dream is full of song.

Arise, arise! The new day calls to you.
Our endless, great adventure starts anew.

It started with optimistic rock ’n’ roll

The music was created in an AI tool called Suno. There you create music by describing, in ordinary language, what you want.

I started using Suno sometime in 2024. One of the first prompts (instructions) I typed in was: Make a rock ’n’ roll song about Warp News, fact-based optimistic news.

Out popped a pretty good tune. In that case the AI created both the music and the lyrics.

In that way I made several songs in many different genres.

Since I give talks about AI, I tried making a song about the organizations I was speaking to. Using text from their website, I asked ChatGPT to create song lyrics. When I was satisfied with them, I brought the text into Suno and created music for it.

It became a fun element in the talks, with the message that through AI we now gain abilities we didn’t have before, or that previously required thousands of hours of training.

Early AI was fun but frustrating

Fun, but also a bit frustrating. I often had to generate many songs to find one that worked. Not because the others were bad, but I wanted something catchy that the audience would enjoy.

At that time, the editing possibilities were limited. If a song had a great melody but something else was wrong, such as a poorly pronounced word, I couldn’t keep the melody and change the pronunciation. Everything had to be redone, and the melody was gone.

But as with all AI, development moved quickly. In the summer of 2025, the ability to create covers was introduced. That meant you could preserve the melody and everything else in the song, but for example change the genre or correct a small mistake.

My wife was humming it

For some reason I then got the idea to use Karin Boye’s poem In Motion as lyrics. I’m not unique in that, but the poem really speaks to me. I made a few versions and quickly noticed that it worked very well as lyrics.

After several more versions, I suddenly heard a melody I really liked. The genre was singer-songwriter and a male voice was singing.

I played it for my wife. She said she liked it, but she is generally a very encouraging person, so I couldn’t be completely sure that she actually thought it was as good as she said.

But then, the next day, I heard her humming it in the bathroom and realized she hadn’t just been kind when she said she liked it.

So I set out to make several covers, preserving the melody but changing the genre. A metal version, for example, turned out well. But the original, the singer-songwriter version, was still the best.

I wasn’t completely satisfied with the man who was singing and thought a female voice would probably fit better. It did, but I wanted a brighter voice. After a while I managed to produce a clear but strong female voice.

Human + machine

All of this happens simply through text, by writing instructions to Suno. The AI creates the music, the singing voices, and the composition. What you, as a human, do is imagine how it should sound, and sometimes it’s quite difficult to get exactly what you want. (You can also hum directly into the app, or upload an audio file, and it will turn it into music.)

For example, I think this song would work very well as a duet, with the clear, strong female voice together with a rough, raspy voice like Leonard Cohen. I haven’t managed to achieve that yet, at least not exactly the way I want.

Suno is constantly evolving. Recently it introduced the ability not only to preserve the melody, but also the voice. In other words, you can extract a voice and use it for other songs.

There are also more and more editing possibilities. But at its core it is simple: your imagination, creativity and ideas are expressed through ordinary human language, and through that new music is created that otherwise would never have existed.

A hit song, then?

After a while I dared to play it for a few more people, who also liked it. So I brought it to the release party for my book The Fifth Acceleration. There it was played both in the AI-generated version and interpreted by Christian von Essen.

It thus became a symbol of the combination of human and machine that I write about in the book.

The day after the book release something incredible happened again. Two people reached out and asked where they could listen to the song!

The same thing happened after a talk where I played the song.

So I decided to release it on Spotify. Maybe it would even become popular there?

Shortly after, the news broke that an AI-generated song had topped Swedish Spotify, followed by arguments and discussions about stopping AI music, clearly labeling songs, and all sorts of opinions.

So topping Spotify had already been done. But what about Svensktoppen? Kind of like a Swedish version of the American Billboards. No AI-generated song has ever appeared on Svensktoppen. Sooner or later one will – so it might as well be mine.

I’m not quite as naïve as it might sound. First of all, I have no idea whether more than a dozen people actually think it’s good. Second, it would have to be widely played on both Spotify and radio to make it onto the list.

If you’re completely unknown and not even an artist, it’s quite an uphill climb.

But it’s fun to try – and I’ve taken on many almost impossible projects before. Like trying to break the Swedish record for door knocking – 10,000 doors – when I was trying to get into parliament in 2010. (I broke the record, but still didn’t get in.)

Make your own version of my song

Now that we can all create music, I think a form of co-creation may emerge. Making covers of well-known songs is nothing new, of course, but now that it’s so much easier we will see an enormous variety.

That’s why I’ve made six different versions of the Swedish Arise, Arise (Bryt upp, bryt upp). A singer-songwriter version with a female voice is the one I like the most and the one I’ve played for others. But I’ve also made a singer-songwriter version with a male voice, a duet, a metal version, a jazz version and one with violin.

There is also one version in English.

Besides being available on Spotify, they are also openly available on Suno and can be used to create covers. (Choose Remix → Cover.)

But you don’t have to use my melody. Karin Boye’s text works very well as song lyrics, and I’ve made several other melodies for it that also work well. She passed away a long time ago, so there is no copyright protection left on her poem. It is free to use.

If you like it – help me spread it

If you like Arise, Arise, feel free to help spread it.

Save it on Spotify and share it with friends and colleagues

The song is also available on all other music services and can be used in stories and reels on Instagram, on TikTok, YouTube, Facebook and so on.

Here are some links:

🎛️ The song on Suno, where you can make your own version (English)
🎶 The English version, Arise, Arise

🎵 The album on Spotify (Swedish)
👩‍🎤 My favorite version of Arise, Arise (Swedish)
🎛️ The album on Suno, where you can make your own versions (Swedish)

This morning Teddy and I were lying in bed listening to the newly released album The New Day Dawns by the artist The Angry Optimist, with six versions of the same song.

When we played the version with violins and I started talking, he shushed me:

“I can’t hear, Dad.”

Mathias Sundin
Angry Optimist

Should washed-up politicians – and everyone else – really be allowed to make AI music? Won’t that crash the music industry and take the livelihood away from real artists? No, I don’t think so, which I wrote about last week.

🎷 AI isn’t a threat – it’s the music industry’s next superhit

The music industry is terrified of AI-generated music. It shouldn’t be. AI music is about to become the biggest hit in music history.

Warp NewsMathias Sundin

First bison in the Iberian Highlands

Nine European bison have arrived in the village of El Recuenco in the province of Guadalajara in Spain's Iberian Highlands. It is the first time the species has been released in this part of the country. The animals come from a private estate in El Espinar, around 65 kilometres from Madrid. The herd consists of five females and four males of various ages.

The adult animals have lived on the estate since arriving from Poland and the Netherlands three years ago. The younger individuals were born there. This means the herd is already socially cohesive and accustomed to the climate conditions in inland Spain.

The study is led by Rewilding Spain in collaboration with the University of the Basque Country, the University of Manchester and ECONOVO, a research centre affiliated with Aarhus University in Denmark.

From 60 individuals to 9,000

The European bison is Europe's last wild bovine and the continent's largest terrestrial mammal. In 1927, fewer than 60 individuals remained, all in zoos and private parks. Over the past decade, the number has increased from just over 2,500 to around 9,000 individuals.

Pablo Schapira, team leader at Rewilding Spain, says the study will examine the species' true ecological range and its potential to restore a wide variety of landscapes across Europe.

The bison will shape the landscape

The European bison is a keystone species with great capacity to shape and restore landscapes. The animals will first spend several weeks in an acclimatisation enclosure where their health and behaviour will be monitored. They will then be released into a fenced area of 400 hectares of publicly owned woodland.

Researchers will track the bison's movements and behaviour using GPS collars. The study will measure the animals' stress levels throughout the year and analyse the composition of their diet, which will be entirely natural. A parallel study will examine the bison's impact on woody vegetation.

New DNA analysis from Cantabria in north-west Spain supports the hypothesis that the European bison was previously present in the region. Regardless of the historical question, bison can fulfil ecological roles similar to those that large herbivores such as aurochs and wild horses once held, before they disappeared due to human activity.

New opportunities for a small village

El Recuenco has around 80 inhabitants. Like many other rural communities in Spain, the village has experienced significant socio-economic decline in recent decades. The local council itself asked to host the bison.

Enrique Collada, mayor of El Recuenco, says the bison are expected to reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfires by grazing and browsing in the woodland. He also says the unique species could attract more visitors to the village and create new opportunities, jobs and income for the inhabitants.

The woodland will continue to be used for other activities such as forestry, hunting, mushroom picking and outdoor recreation.

International research collaboration

The research at El Recuenco will be replicated in other bison populations across Europe, from Spain to Azerbaijan and Scandinavia, via the Netherlands, Poland and Romania. The collaboration takes place through the Rewilding Europe network. The aim is to give researchers deeper knowledge of how European bison adapt to different geographical landscapes and environmental conditions.

The residents of El Recuenco have already seen results from the release of other large herbivores in the Iberian Highlands. Rewilding Spain currently manages more than 20,000 hectares of natural grazing in the area, where tauros and Przewalski's horses have been released. The council has led an extensive dialogue process with residents through talks, meetings and site visits to build broad support for the project.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
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New record for collection

In 2025, The Ocean Cleanup collected over 25 million kilograms of trash from oceans, rivers, and near-shore environments. It is the organization's largest annual result to date. In total, the organization has now removed over 45 million kilograms of trash since its inception.

The result is a consequence of several years of research, data-driven decision-making, and locally adapted solutions. During the year, a particular focus was placed on optimizing processes and ensuring the organization's ocean and river technologies operate as efficiently as possible.

A comprehensive strategy against plastic pollution

The organization's goal is to remove 90 percent of all floating plastic from the oceans by 2040. Reaching that goal requires a comprehensive solution combining several methods. This includes removing existing plastic from the ocean, intercepting plastic waste in rivers before it reaches the ocean, conducting coastal sweeps in near-shore environments, and using marine pollution research to inform international policy.

The research continues to set new standards in the field. The organization also involves citizens who want to participate in what is described as the world's largest cleanup, an effort that is growing in scale.

New program targets 30 cities

At the United Nations Oceans Conference in Nice during the year, The Ocean Cleanup announced the next step toward its goal: the 30 Cities Program. The program will tackle up to a third of all plastic pollution reaching the oceans from some of the world's most polluted urban areas.

Local waste management in focus

The work on efficient and responsible solutions also extends to waste management. The organization collaborates with local authorities, partners, and communities in the countries where it operates to create long-lasting impact.

One example is Malaysia, where the organization together with a local partner has inaugurated a new sorting facility on the banks of the Klang river. There, trash is intercepted and sorted immediately on site.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

📗 Launching my book abroad

My book about AI, The Fifth Acceleration, has sold well in Sweden and we are now working to have it published in more languages.

I would really appreciate it if you could register your interest on the website – it takes about 24 seconds.

It’s of course non-binding, but it helps us a great deal to show potential publishers that there are interested readers outside Sweden.

You can also read more about the book there.

Here are a couple of blurbs:

"A welcome argument that AI is not the end of humanity, but on the contrary, unleashes human potential and helps us find better explanations and solve new problems."
- David Deutsch, Professor at Oxford, creator of quantum computing

"Mathias Sundin argues that AI is the next great engine of human progress, a tool that will accelerate the cross-pollination of ideas and unlock innovation. He may well be right."
- Matt Ridley, science journalist and bestselling author

Read more and register your interest here.

Still a book sale

My book (in Swedish) is still on sale. More here.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

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🎷 AI isn’t a threat – it’s the music industry’s next superhit

The music industry is terrified of AI-generated music. It shouldn’t be. AI music is about to become the biggest hit in music history.

Read on Warp News

💡 Fact-based optimistic news of the week

⏲️ New world record – fusion reactor held plasma stable for 22 minutes

The research reactor WEST in France held plasma stable for just over 22 minutes, which is a new world record. The record surpassed China's previous mark by approximately 25 percent. The test showed that the reactor's internal surfaces withstood the demanding conditions without breaking down.

Read more on Warp News

🤧 A single nasal spray vaccine could protect against all coughs, colds and flus

Researchers have developed a "universal vaccine" in the form of a nasal spray that in animal experiments protected against virtually all tested viruses, bacteria and even allergens. The method puts immune cells in the lungs in a heightened state of readiness.

Read more on Warp News

🚚 Aurora triples its driverless truck network and expands across the southern United States

Aurora has expanded its driverless network from three to ten routes. The Fort Worth–Phoenix route of approximately 1,000 miles is the first driverless freight route to exceed mandated driving time limits, nearly halving transit times.

Read more on Warp News

🚙 Waymo launches driverless taxi rides in four new cities and presents next-generation technology

Data from over 127 million miles driven shows that Waymo's driverless cars have ten times fewer serious crashes and twelve times fewer crashes with pedestrians compared to human drivers. The company has launched new sensor technology with the ability to drive in extreme winter weather.

Read more on Warp News

🌲 Deforestation is slowing down – forests are expanding in more and more regions

In the past, forests around the world were cut down on a massive scale. But that has changed in recent decades. Deforestation still continues in some regions, but in others the trend has reversed. Forest area is now increasing in more parts of the world than it is decreasing in.

Read more on Warp News

🎙️ Kevin Kelly and Dan Pink launch podcast about best possible future scenarios

New podcast series – Best Case Scenarios – explores the best possible developments in energy, transportation, biotechnology, and brain science over the next 25 years. The focus is on what happens if everything goes right and how technology can reduce costs, emissions, and accidents.

Read more on Warp News

🎙️ AI talk or master class?

I'm giving a lot of talks and master classes on AI in several different countries. Happy to come to your organization.

Learn more at mathiassundin.org.

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Decentralized energy as defense

Russia has systematically bombed Ukraine's energy infrastructure since the start of the invasion. Before the winter of 2025–2026, half of the country's energy infrastructure lay in ruins. Total damage to the energy sector is estimated to exceed 56 billion dollars.

Ukraine's response is to replace the large, centralized power plants with decentralized renewable energy sources. Wind and solar installations spread across the landscape are harder to hit and easier to repair. A coal power plant is a single large target that one missile can take out. Doing equivalent damage to a wind farm requires around 40 missiles, according to Jeff Oatham at DTEK, Ukraine's largest energy company. Attacking decentralized solar installations is not economically rational either, as it would require a large number of strikes with limited impact on the overall energy system, according to Ukrainian energy expert Olena Kondratiuk.

Since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has added over three gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity. The country's grid operators plan to nearly double renewable energy production over the next four years.

Rooftop solar at record pace

Solar installations on households, businesses and public institutions have continued at a high pace during the war. Ukraine's energy company YASNO reports that their customers are buying solar and storage packages at a rapid rate. On sunny days, Ukraine even has energy surpluses.

In Mykolaiv, just 60 kilometers from the front, 26 newly installed rooftop solar panels together with 100 kilowatt-hours of battery storage power a rehabilitation center for children and persons with disabilities. The center continued operating even during a 32-hour shelling stretch in mid-December. In addition to treating 70 patients a day, the center has opened its doors to residents who lack heat.

The German-Ukrainian Energy Partnership estimates that Ukraine's long-term technical solar potential exceeds 80 gigawatts, comparable to 80 medium-sized nuclear reactors. A study from the University of Technology Sydney shows that Ukraine could meet 91 percent of its energy needs with a combination of solar and onshore wind using one percent of its land.

Wind power near the front line

Just 65 miles from the front, DTEK is building the 500-megawatt Tyligulska Wind Power Plant. It is the first wind farm ever built in a war zone. When completed, it will supply 900,000 households with electricity.

Before Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territory in 2014 and 2022, the country had 34 wind farms with nearly 700 turbines. Ukraine now has seven gigawatts of wind power in the pipeline that could be installed this year, according to Andriy Konechenkov of the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association.

Microgrids and storage

Several Ukrainian cities are building microgrids that combine renewable and conventional energy sources. The city of Vinnytsia has five microgrids combining solar, gas and hydroelectric power with energy storage. Five major wind farms are set to join within two years. In Khmelnytskyi, the national university's microgrid of 4,400 kilowatts includes solar panels, natural gas-fired cogeneration, diesel power and gas boilers.

The city of Zhytomyr, west of Kyiv, plans to run entirely on renewable energy by 2050.

In 2024 and 2025, Ukraine's national grid operator invested in half a gigawatt of storage capacity. That is nearly a quarter of Germany's total storage capacity. Battery storage projects that take two years in Europe are completed in just six months in Ukraine.

A grassroots movement

Andriy Martynyuk of the Ukrainian environmental organization Ecoclub describes the development as largely a grassroots movement. Individual consumers want to become independent of the power grid. He expects demand for renewable energy to increase further when state subsidies for fossil energy, which have kept prices below market rates, are phased out.

Ukraine's energy transition is not driven by climate concerns but by security needs. The country had an installed capacity of 60 gigawatts before the war. Now a new, decentralized energy system is being built under extreme conditions. European countries are financing a large part of the transition, including all solar installations in Mykolaiv and the Solar Supports Ukraine program, which keeps schools open during blackouts.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
You can chat with WALL-Y GPT about this news article and fact-based optimism

Humanoid robots have long been able to move impressively. They can dance and perform acrobatics. But they have lacked the ability to understand their surroundings, make complex decisions, and handle unknown objects with their hands. Now that is about to change.

Google DeepMind and Boston Dynamics are launching a collaboration in which the AI model Gemini Robotics is integrated into several of Boston Dynamics' robots, including the humanoid robot Atlas and the robot dog Spot. The collaboration was announced at the CES tech show in Las Veg.

The robot learns to understand the physical world

By giving the robot an advanced AI model as a brain, it gains the ability to navigate unfamiliar environments, identify objects, and manipulate them with its hands. This is exactly the type of capability required to perform manual labor.

The real value going forward is for our robots to be contextually aware of their environment and able to use their hands to manipulate any object, said Robert Playter, CEO of Boston Dynamics.

Plans include testing Gemini-powered Atlas robots in Hyundai's car factories in the coming months. Hyundai is Boston Dynamics' parent company.

Over 200 Chinese companies are developing humanoid robots

Competition in robotics has increased sharply. Advances in motors, batteries, sensors, and other components have made it easier for new companies to enter the field. More than a dozen companies in the US, including Agility Robotics, Figure AI, Apptronik, 1X, and Tesla, are working on humanoid systems. Around 200 Chinese companies are developing humanoid robots, according to the Chinese industry association CMRA.

Many AI companies are now turning their attention to robotics. They argue that AI models need a deeper understanding of the physical world to achieve humanlike intelligence. OpenAI is reportedly developing humanoid robots. Tesla has showcased its humanoid robot Optimus.

One AI brain for all robots

Google DeepMind hired the former CTO of Boston Dynamics in November. Rather than building its own robots, Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis envisions Gemini being used by many different robot manufacturers, in the same way Android runs on a wide range of smartphones.

Carolina Parada, head of robotics at Google DeepMind, notes that Gemini is designed to be multimodal, making it well suited to understanding and learning about the physical world. "Automotive is a great place to start, but our intention is to continue expanding to more and more applications," she said.

Data collected by the robots will in turn improve the AI model's ability to operate in the physical world.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
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A lake that nearly vanished

The Aral Sea was once the fourth largest lake on Earth. It was fed by two rivers originating in the high mountains of Central Asia. In the 1960s, the Soviet government decided to grow cotton on enormous areas of land in the region. The rivers were diverted for irrigation. The Aral Sea's water began to shrink rapidly.

By the mid-2010s, the lake had lost around 90 percent of its water mass. It split into four smaller bodies of very salty water. Local communities and ecosystems were severely affected. The southern part in Uzbekistan almost completely disappeared, leaving behind a toxic salt desert called the Aralkum. The eastern part dried out entirely in 2014.

A dam and regional cooperation turn things around

In the northern part of the sea, the situation looks different. In 2005, the Kokaral Dam was built. In addition, the water resource ministers of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan signed a regional agreement on equal distribution of water inflow between the countries. A new water usage law has also been adopted, which improved the situation in the Syr Darya river basin.

Over 20 years of systematic work, the surface area of the North Aral Sea has grown by 36 percent. The water volume has nearly doubled. Salinity has decreased by half.

Water level 50 percent higher than the lowest point

In early February 2026, a report on the progress was published. According to the report, the volume of water in the North Aral Sea has increased to 24.1 billion cubic metres from 2023 to the present. During this period, 5 billion cubic metres of water have been directed into the sea.

Data from the World Bank shows that the water level in the North Aral Sea is now 50 percent higher than at its lowest point.

Minister of Water Resources Nurzhan Nurzhigitov says the results are being achieved faster than planned. The current figures were originally projected for 2029.

New study to raise water levels further

Funded by a World Bank grant, a feasibility study is now being developed to preserve the North Aral Sea. Among the options being considered are raising the Kokaral Dam by two metres and constructing a hydraulic complex to stabilise water levels in the Akshatau and Kamystybas lake systems.

The project aims to increase the volume and improve the water quality, restore the Syr Darya River delta, reduce salt sediment outflow from the sea bottom and improve living conditions for local residents.

The fish have returned

Bulat Yessekin, Coordinator of the Central Asian Platform on Water and Climate Change, says that 20 fish species that had previously disappeared have returned to the lower section of the Syr Darya thanks to the measures taken.

There are now ten fish processing plants in the Aral region. Four of them have EU certification. Each year, around 4,000 to 5,000 tonnes of fish from the Aral Sea and the 160 lakes of the Kyzylorda region are exported to 13 countries, including EU member states, China and Russia.

Millions of seedlings on the dried-out lakebed

Work is also underway on the dried-out lakebed. On the Kazakh side, 4.4 million seedlings have been planted. At the end of 2025, the area of greened surfaces was 1.1 million hectares. Uzbekistan is greening 1.8 million hectares.

WALL-Y
WALL-Y is an AI bot created in Claude. Learn more about WALL-Y and how we develop her. You can find her news here.
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📗 Launching my book abroad

My book about AI, The Fifth Acceleration, has sold well in Sweden and we are now working to have it published in more languages.

I would really appreciate it if you could register your interest on the website – it takes about 24 seconds.

It’s of course non-binding, but it helps us a great deal to show potential publishers that there are interested readers outside Sweden.

You can also read more about the book there.

Here are a couple of reviews:

"A welcome argument that AI is not the end of humanity, but on the contrary, unleashes human potential and helps us find better explanations and solve new problems."
- David Deutsch, Professor at Oxford, creator of quantum computing

"Mathias Sundin argues that AI is the next great engine of human progress, a tool that will accelerate the cross-pollination of ideas and unlock innovation. He may well be right."
- Matt Ridley, science journalist and bestselling author

Read more and register your interest here.

Still a book sale

My book (in Swedish) is still on sale. More here.

Mathias Sundin
The Angry Optimist

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⏲️ New world record – fusion reactor held plasma stable for 22 minutes

The research reactor WEST in France held plasma stable for just over 22 minutes, which is a new world record. The record surpassed China's previous mark by approximately 25 percent. The test showed that the reactor's internal surfaces withstood the demanding conditions without breaking down.

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