🌾 Global grain supplies set to reach record levels – food prices expected to fall

• Global grain supplies are expected to reach a record level of 3.6 billion tons during the 2025-26 season.
• This will be the third consecutive year that production increases. However, the growth rate is slower than the average over the past two decades.
• Food prices are expected to decrease by 7 percent during 2025.

Food commodity prices expected to fall during 2025

The World Bank's food price index is expected to decrease by 7 percent during 2025 compared to the previous year. During 2026, prices are expected to fall slightly further.

All components in the index are expected to decrease during 2025. Grain prices will fall by 11 percent. Oils and meals decrease by 7 percent. Other foods drop by 5 percent.

During 2026, prices within these subcategories are expected to remain stable. The forecast contains risks from weaker global growth than expected and extreme weather events. Trade policy uncertainty and biofuel policies pose additional risks to price development.

Grain production continues to grow

Global grain supplies will reach 3.6 billion tons during the 2025-26 season. This will be the third consecutive year that production increases. However, the growth rate is slower than the average over the past two decades.

Wheat production has returned to its long-term average growth rate. Maize production has recovered after previous setbacks but still remains below the historical trend. Rice and soybean production are growing at the same rate as the long-term average. These productions build upon last season's high levels.

Soybean oil drives growth in cooking oils

Global supplies of edible oils are expected to increase by 5 percent during the 2025-26 growing season. This will be the fourth consecutive year that production expands. The growth exceeds the long-term trend.

Record soybean production drives this growth through increased soybean oil production. Other major oils such as sunflower oil, rapeseed oil, and coconut oil decreased during 2024-25. These oils are expected to recover during 2025-26 but less than the historical average.

The market will continue to depend on soybean oil until 2026. Only a partial recovery of alternative oil sources is expected.

Stock conditions affect price stability

The global ratio between stocks and use will decrease during 2025-26. This decline continues a trend that has been ongoing for a decade. Despite the decrease, the ratio remains above the low levels seen before 2015.

The decrease is particularly noticeable for maize and wheat. This signals tighter market conditions. For rice, the ratio is stabilizing while it increases for soybeans.

These tighter stock levels make grain prices more sensitive to potential disruptions. Extreme weather events and new trade restrictions can affect prices more than before.

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