🛫 Fewer obese passengers – thanks to weight loss pills –reduce airlines' fuel needs

• Wall Street analysts estimate that American airlines could reduce fuel costs by up to 1.5 percent if average passenger weight drops by 10 percent.
• The four largest American airlines are expected to consume approximately 16 billion gallons of fuel in 2026.
• Lower fuel consumption also means reduced carbon dioxide emissions from air traffic.

Fuel is the largest cost

Investment bank Jefferies has analyzed how the increasing use of weight loss drugs could affect the airline industry. The conclusion is that airlines could become unexpected winners as more Americans lose weight.

Fuel represents the airlines' single largest cost. The four largest American airlines – American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines – are expected to consume approximately 16 billion gallons of fuel in 2026. With an average fuel price of $2.41 per gallon, this represents a combined fuel cost of nearly $39 billion. This accounts for almost 19 percent of total operating expenses.

Jefferies estimates that a 1 percent reduction in total aircraft weight improves fuel efficiency by 0.75 percent. If average passenger weight drops by 10 percent, this could result in approximately 2 percent savings in total weight and fuel costs reduced by up to 1.5 percent.

Reduced climate emissions

Lower fuel consumption also means reduced carbon dioxide emissions. If the four largest American airlines reduce their fuel consumption by 1.5 percent, this represents savings of approximately 240 million gallons of fuel annually, based on the expected consumption of 16 billion gallons in 2026. Each gallon of jet fuel burned releases approximately 9.57 kilograms of carbon dioxide. A reduction in fuel consumption therefore directly contributes to lower climate impact from the aviation sector.

Concrete example with Boeing 737 Max 8

Jefferies uses a Boeing 737 Max 8 as an example to illustrate the calculations. The aircraft has an operating empty weight of approximately 99,000 pounds. The remaining capacity up to maximum takeoff weight is divided between fuel, passengers, baggage and cargo. Fuel capacity is approximately 46,000 pounds and payload around 36,000 pounds.

With a two-class cabin configuration and 178 passengers weighing an average of 180 pounds, passengers account for approximately 32,000 pounds of total weight. If average passenger weight drops by 10 percent, total passenger weight decreases by approximately 3,200 pounds. This corresponds to about 2 percent of maximum takeoff weight and delivers significant fuel savings over thousands of flights per year.

Different effects for different airlines

The effect on profits varies between airlines depending on their cost structure. With a 2 percent reduction in average passenger weight, Jefferies estimates that earnings per share could increase by 2.8 percent for Delta, 3.5 percent for United, 4.2 percent for Southwest and as much as 11.7 percent for American Airlines. American has the greatest leverage on fuel costs in its operations.

The airline industry has long focused on weight

The airline industry has long worked actively to reduce aircraft weight. Manufacturers like Boeing regularly emphasize that weight is one of the most important factors for fuel efficiency. In 2018, United Airlines switched its onboard magazine Hemisphere to lighter paper. This reduced weight by approximately one ounce per copy and was expected to save 170,000 gallons of fuel annually, which at the time corresponded to approximately $290,000.

The first GLP-1 obesity drug in pill form is now available from Novo Nordisk. Eli Lilly is expected to receive American approval for a similar product within months. The pill form eliminates the need for self-injection and is expected to attract new patient groups to obesity treatment.

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