📉 Overdose deaths in the US have dropped 35 percent from the 2023 peak

• The number of overdose deaths in the US is estimated to have fallen by 35 percent from the peak year of 2023 to 2025.
• The purity of seized fentanyl powder was cut in half between August 2023 and the end of 2024.
• A coordinated counter-narcotics strategy has choked off the supply of fentanyl from Mexico and China.

New figures show a sharp decline

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published new provisional figures for overdose deaths in the US in March 2026. During the 12-month period ending in October 2025, an estimated 71,542 people died from overdoses.

That is a 17 percent decrease compared with the previous 12-month period.

The full year of 2025 is expected to show a 35 percent decline from the peak in 2023, writes The Washington Post.

Fentanyl supply has been choked off

The most important explanation for the decline, according to journalist Sam Quinones, is that fentanyl supply has dropped. Analysis of seized drugs by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) shows that the purity of fentanyl powder peaked at over 20 percent in August 2023. By the end of 2024, it had fallen to just above 10 percent. The purity of fentanyl pills also dropped, partly because Mexican producers had difficulty obtaining key precursor chemicals, according to the DEA.

Street prices reflect the change. In Tucson, Arizona, a major drug transit point near the Mexican border, fentanyl pills cost between 50 cents and one dollar during the peak in 2023. Those same pills now cost five dollars.

A coordinated strategy across agencies

The decline began shortly after federal agents from multiple US agencies launched a coordinated strategy to disrupt fentanyl flows. Mexican authorities also took part. The strategy was based on methods previously used against al-Qaeda, but adapted to target Mexican fentanyl traffickers and Chinese chemical companies.

The effort involved attacks on cartel finances, sanctions on Chinese chemical companies, arrests of money launderers, tracing of pill presses and operations against border couriers. A central element was rapid information sharing between agencies. Jake Braun, a former homeland security adviser during the Biden administration, describes the strategy in his book "Fentanyl: Fighting the Mass Poisoning of America and the Cartel Behind It." The strategy continued under the Trump administration.

Supply creates demand

Fentanyl is a supply-driven problem, Quinones writes. Street opioids create physical dependency in ways other drugs do not, particularly when they are potent and widely available. The pattern echoes the earlier opioid epidemic, which began in the 1990s when pharmaceutical companies pushed doctors to prescribe opioid painkillers on a large scale. As prescriptions rose, so did overdose deaths.

Fentanyl was the perfect product for drug dealers. It could be produced chemically year-round, unlike heroin which depends on poppy harvests. All that was needed was a flow of chemical ingredients, mainly from China, through Mexican ports. It is precisely this supply chain that has been disrupted over the past two years.

Narcan works better when supply drops

Narcan, the brand name for naloxone which reverses opioid overdoses, has also contributed to fewer deaths. But during the period of high fentanyl supply, Narcan offered only temporary relief. Many who died from overdoses had previously been revived with Narcan multiple times.

Now the reduced supply appears to be making Narcan more effective. A woman in Tucson who was addicted to fentanyl overdosed 26 times in 15 months during 2022 and 2023, and was revived with Narcan each time. During her latest period of drug use, she has not overdosed once.

In Salt Lake City, another woman said the fentanyl pills she purchased gradually weakened starting in early 2024. Eventually they no longer contained enough fentanyl to stave off her withdrawal. She sought treatment.

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