🌎 Study: Economic growth without increased emissions now a reality in most countries

• Countries representing 92 percent of the global economy have now decoupled consumption-based carbon emissions from GDP growth.
• China's emissions have plateaued over the past 18 months and may have peaked.
• Projections for global warming by the end of the century have been lowered from 4 degrees to 2.6 degrees.

Decoupling is now the norm

The once rigid link between economic growth and carbon emissions is now breaking across most of the world. This is shown in a new study from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

According to the report, countries representing 92 percent of the global economy have now decoupled their consumption-based carbon emissions from their economic expansion. The trend has accelerated since 2015 and is particularly pronounced among major emitters in the global south.

The study, based on data from the Global Carbon Budget, shows that decoupling is now the norm in advanced economies. Countries accounting for 46 percent of global GDP have expanded their economies while reducing emissions. Among these are Brazil, Colombia and Egypt. The most pronounced decouplings occurred in the UK, Norway and Switzerland.

China's emissions are plateauing

One of the most important shifts has occurred in China. The world's largest emitter is now sharply reducing its economic dependence on coal and other fossil fuels. Between 2015 and 2023, China's consumption-based emissions rose by 24 percent. That is less than half of the country's economic growth during the same period, which exceeded 50 percent.

Over the past 18 months, China's emissions have plateaued. Several analysts believe they may have peaked.

21 countries have improved over the past decade

In total, 21 countries have improved their situation over the past ten years. Among them are Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Colombia, Egypt, Italy, Mexico and South Africa. All have been able to grow economically while reducing their emissions.

Another 22 countries have consistently achieved decoupling both before and after 2015. Among these are the US, Japan, Canada and most countries in the European Union.

In the US, emissions have been falling for most of the past two decades, according to the report's authors. Donald Trump's first term as president caused only a brief uptick in emissions.

Growth of annual emissions has slowed sharply

An earlier analysis from ECIU shows that the growth of annual carbon emissions has slowed to 1.2 percent since 2015. This compares to 18.4 percent in the decade before the Paris Agreement.

The Paris Agreement was signed by nearly 200 countries in 2015 and included a commitment to limit warming to well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This sent a strong signal to businesses and governments that they needed to find alternatives to oil, gas and coal.

As a result, the projection for global warming by the end of the century has fallen from 4 degrees to 2.6 degrees.

John Lang, author of the ECIU report, says the world is now in a pre-conditioning stage ahead of a structural decline in emissions.

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