📑 Research identifies 28 climate policies that work in all countries

• A study of 1,737 climate policies across 40 countries over 32 years shows which measures consistently reduce emissions regardless of context.
• Carbon taxes and investments in renewable energy and research stand out as particularly reliable instruments for reducing emissions.
• If Portugal had applied the identified measures at maximum stringency since 2000, emissions would have been reduced by a total of 538 million tons of CO2 equivalents.

A new study published in the journal Climate Policy has analyzed 47 different climate policies across 40 countries over the period 1990 to 2022. In total, 1,737 individual policy decisions were included in the analysis, spread across four sectors: buildings, energy, industry, and transport. The result is a list of 28 measures shown to have a documented effect on emission levels regardless of the policy context in which they are applied.

Three times more climate measures since 2000

The number of climate policy measures worldwide has increased sharply over recent decades. The most conservative estimates show that the number of measures is now on average approximately four times higher than in 2000. In the most extreme cases, the increase amounts to around fifteen times the 2000 levels.

The rapid increase makes it difficult to assess which individual measures actually work, as different policy instruments affect one another. The researchers behind the study have developed a method that makes it possible to analyze the effects of individual measures while accounting for the other measures in a country's climate policy.

Method based on Bayesian statistics

To handle this complexity, the researchers use Bayesian statistical modeling with three different types of statistical filters. These filters apply increasingly strict requirements for how certain an effect must be before a measure is counted as effective. The model also includes control variables such as GDP per capita, economic growth, the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix, industry's share of the economy, trade openness, and state capacity.

The study draws on the OECD's Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework, the only existing dataset that not only records whether a measure is in place but also measures its stringency — that is, how strict or ambitious the measure actually is.

28 measures with documented effect

A total of 28 climate policy measures were identified as showing a demonstrable effect on emissions in at least two of the three statistical models. The measures fall into five categories:

Carbon pricing and taxation covers eight measures, including carbon taxes on buildings, electricity, industry, and transport, as well as emissions trading and congestion charges.

Energy efficiency and standards includes five measures, among them building energy codes, air emission standards, minimum energy performance requirements for electric motors and transport, and speed limits on motorways.

Renewable energy and research is the largest category with eleven measures, such as research and development in nuclear, hydrogen, and renewable energy, as well as renewable energy auctions and planning for renewable expansion.

Reporting and accountability is covered by three measures requiring countries to report and account for their greenhouse gas emissions in the energy, industry, and transport sectors.

Subsidies is represented by one measure: the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies in the transport sector.

Carbon taxes work even at low levels

A common argument against carbon taxes is that they are often set too low for political reasons, meaning the effect actually depends on the combination of several measures rather than the tax itself. The study shows that carbon pricing has a demonstrable effect even when the analysis accounts for the other measures in a country's climate policy.

Portugal's emissions illustrate the potential

The researchers illustrate the effects using Portugal's emissions data. If the country had applied all identified measures at maximum stringency since 2000, the total emission reductions across the four sectors would amount to 538 million tons of CO2 equivalents. That is equivalent to an entire emission-free year in a country like South Korea within the four sectors analyzed, whose emissions total 567 million tons of CO2 equivalents.

Sweden and Norway have introduced all measures

The study shows that countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and Saudi Arabia have the greatest potential to reduce emissions in the transport sector by tightening their climate policies. Among countries with ambitious climate policies, gaps still exist. Germany, for example, could improve its climate efforts by introducing speed limits on motorways. Australia, Canada, and Japan have room to do more by raising excise taxes on fossil fuels.

Sweden and Norway have introduced all identified measures, albeit with varying degrees of stringency. This shows that implementing all measures simultaneously is politically feasible in practice.

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