📉 China's CO2 emissions continue to decline – the peak may already have been passed

• China's carbon dioxide emissions fell by one percent during the first half of 2025 and continue the downward trend that began in March 2024.
• The declining trend opens the possibility that China's emissions may already have reached their peak, years before the "before 2030" target.
• Solar energy capacity increased by a record 212 gigawatts during the first half, which alone covered the entire increase in electricity demand of 170 terawatt hours.

Continued downward trend for emissions

China's carbon dioxide emissions decreased by one percent during the first half of 2025, extending the declining trend that started in March 2024, according to Carbon Brief.. This development puts the country on track for falling emissions throughout 2025.

The continued decline in China's total carbon dioxide emissions leaves open the possibility that the country's emissions may already have reached their peak, years before the "before 2030" target. A continued decline in emissions, extending the fall that began in early 2024, could also affect target-setting for the next five-year plan by showing that China could peak and reduce its emissions well ahead of the 2030 deadline.

Emissions from the power sector, the country's dominant source of emissions, fell by 3 percent during the first half. Coal use in the power industry dropped by 3.4 percent compared with the same period last year.

Record growth for clean energy drives change

The downward trend for emissions is driven by record growth in clean energy. Clean energy generation from solar, wind and nuclear power grew by 270 terawatt hours during the first half, significantly exceeding the demand increase of 170 terawatt hours.

The growth in electricity generation from solar panels alone covered all of the growth in electricity demand. Solar energy increased by 170 terawatt hours, equivalent to the national power output of Mexico or Turkey over the same period.

China installed 212 gigawatts of new solar capacity during the first half, double the amount from the first half of 2024. 93 gigawatts of new solar capacity was added to China's grid in May alone, equivalent to approximately 100 solar panels installed every second during the month.

Solar and wind take over from fossil fuels

The record growth of solar and wind power meant that both sources surpassed hydropower for the first time during the first half of 2025. Solar energy is poised to overtake wind power this year and hydropower this year or next to become the largest source of clean power generation in China.

The share of low-carbon sources reached 40 percent of the country's total electricity generation during the first half, up from 36 percent in the same period of 2024. Clean energy sources excluding hydro have started matching the recent increases in China's electricity demand.

With the major increase in solar capacity during the first half, as well as expected additions of wind and nuclear throughout the year, China is on track for falling emissions in 2025. The State Grid Energy Research Institute expects 380 gigawatts to be added to the grid this year, which would result in around 850 terawatt hours of annual clean power generation.

Other sectors contribute to the decline

Other sectors also contributed to the declining emissions. Emissions from the building materials sector fell by 3 percent and from the metals industry by 1 percent. Cement production decreased by 4 percent and steel output by 3 percent.

The reduction is due to the ongoing contraction in the construction sector, where real estate investment fell by 11 percent and the floor area of new construction starts by 20 percent.

Consumption of oil products increased by 1 percent, but this growth did not come from transport fuel demand. Production of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel all continued to fall, with electric vehicles eating into road fuel demand.

Challenges remain

Despite the positive development, China faces challenges. Coal use in the coal-to-chemicals industry increased dramatically by 20 percent year-on-year, on top of a 10 percent increase in 2024. This sector added around 3 percent to China's total carbon dioxide emissions from 2020 to 2024.

Coal power capacity is expected to surge this year, with State Grid predicting 127 gigawatts of thermal power added. Around 90-100 gigawatts of this is coal, which could set a new annual record.

The falling trend in carbon dioxide emissions and the clean energy growth that drives it could give policymakers greater confidence that more ambitious targets are achievable. As long as clean power generation continues to grow faster than electricity demand, increases in coal and gas-fired capacity will result in falling utilization rather than increased carbon dioxide emissions.

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