👨‍💻 Office workers earn more and grow in numbers despite AI warnings

• The number of white-collar jobs in the US has increased by approximately 3 million since ChatGPT launched in late 2022.
• Real wages for office workers have risen and the wage premium compared to blue-collar workers is now three times higher than in the 1980s.
• Occupations combining technical expertise with coordination and judgment have grown the most, while purely routine work is declining.

More jobs and higher wages

Since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, warnings about AI replacing office jobs have been frequent. But labor market statistics show a different picture. The US has added roughly 3 million white-collar jobs since then. This includes roles in management, professional services, sales and administration. During the same period, the number of blue-collar jobs has remained flat.

Several occupational groups often pointed out as early AI victims are growing rapidly. The US has 7 percent more software developers, 10 percent more radiologists and 21 percent more paralegals than three years ago.

Wages have also developed positively. Real wages in professional and business services have increased by 5 percent since late 2022. Office and administrative workers earn 9 percent more. Controlled for education, age, gender and other factors, white-collar workers now earn a third more than blue-collar workers. That is nearly three times higher than the premium in the 1980s.

History repeats itself

The pattern resembles earlier technological shifts. When computers emerged in the 1980s, economists warned of mass unemployment. But computerization proved beneficial for office work. Since the 1980s, employment in management, professional services, sales and office roles has more than doubled. Wages have risen by roughly a third in real terms.

The reason is that computers rarely replaced entire occupations at once. They automated routine tasks that could be codified into explicit rules. Most professional roles consist of many different tasks, where only some could be automated. The result was not replacement but upgrading. Computers raised productivity and freed human capacity for more value-creating activities like analysis and judgment.

New technology also created entirely new occupations. E-commerce generated work in logistics, supply chains and digital payments. Smartphones created app developers. Social media gave rise to digital marketers. According to research from MIT and Boston University, roughly half of US employment growth between 1980 and 2010 came from entirely new occupational categories.

AI automates tasks, not entire jobs

Data from Anthropic, based on millions of anonymized interactions with their AI models, shows that only around 4 percent of all occupations use AI for three-quarters or more of their work tasks. Almost no roles can be fully automated. AI reduces the cost of specific cognitive activities such as writing text, coding, gathering information or running standard analyses. But it does not replace entire roles.

An analysis of employment and wage trends for over 100 large white-collar occupations in the US since the second half of 2022 shows that employment has increased by 4 percent and real wages by 3 percent.

Certain occupations are growing rapidly

Roles combining technical expertise with oversight and coordination have grown the most. Employment among project managers and information security experts has risen by around 30 percent. Occupations requiring deep mathematical competence combined with problem-solving are also thriving. The same applies to jobs involving interpersonal care work and those requiring judgment and coordination.

AI is also creating entirely new jobs. Companies are hiring data annotation staff to label digital information for AI systems. They are hiring engineers who help clients implement AI. In the executive suite, new roles are emerging such as chief AI officers.

The fastest-growing white-collar occupations in recent years are those without established names. The category "other mathematical science occupations" has increased by around 40 percent since late 2022. Their real wages have risen by roughly a fifth. The category "other computer occupations," such as systems architects and IT project managers, has also expanded rapidly. Employment among "other business operations specialists" has jumped by almost 60 percent, with solid wage growth.

Routine work is declining

Only routine office work has shrunk. Over the past three years, the number of American insurance claims clerks has decreased by 13 percent. Secretaries and administrative assistants have declined by 20 percent. The share of Americans in clerical and administrative work, which has already fallen from 18 percent in the 1980s to 10 percent, appears set to continue shrinking.

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