📉 Have China's CO2 emissions peaked? Declining for the first time thanks to clean energy

• China's carbon dioxide emissions fell by 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2025 despite sharply increased energy demand.
• New electricity from solar, wind and nuclear power was enough to reduce coal power production even as demand rose sharply.
• China's electricity sector emissions have decreased four times previously. However, the current reduction is the first time the main cause is growth in clean energy production.

Historic turning point for China's emissions

For the first time, the growth of clean energy in China has led to reduced carbon dioxide emissions despite rapid increase in energy demand. A new analysis from Carbon Brief shows that the country's emissions fell by 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period the previous year.

The reduction was driven by a 5.8 percent decline in the electricity sector's emissions. While electricity demand increased by 2.5 percent overall, production from coal power plants fell by 4.7 percent. Increases in solar, wind and nuclear power covered more than the growth in demand.

Clean energy exceeds demand growth

The growth of clean energy has now exceeded both current and long-term average growth in electricity demand. This has led to reduced use of fossil fuels in the electricity sector.

During March, 23 gigawatts of solar power and 13 gigawatts of wind power were installed. This represented an increase of 80 and 110 percent respectively compared to previous records for the month.

The Chinese wind power industry expects new records of 105-115 gigawatts of installed capacity during 2025, compared to the previous record of 80 gigawatts last year. For solar power, the industry organization forecasts a decrease of 8-23 percent from the extreme record of 278 gigawatts in 2024.

First time clean energy drives the reduction

China's electricity sector emissions have decreased four times previously over the past four decades – in 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2022. However, the current reduction is the first time the main cause is growth in clean energy production.

The reductions in 2009 and 2012 were related to the global financial crisis and the Euro crisis. The decline in 2015 was driven by the construction and industrial sector slump that followed the 2008-2012 stimulus program. These economic shocks resulted in sharp reductions in electricity demand. The reduction in 2022 was a combination of slow growth in electricity demand due to strict zero-Covid measures and relatively strong clean energy growth.

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