🌏 Global greenhouse gas emissions have almost stopped growing

🌏 Global greenhouse gas emissions have almost stopped growing

Emissions rose 0.2 percent compared with the first half of 2025. Between 2015 and 2023, they grew by an average of 1.1 percent per year. China and the United States, the world's two largest emitters, saw their emissions fall by 0.3 and 0.4 percent respectively.

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  • Emissions rose 0.2 percent compared with the first half of 2025. Between 2015 and 2023, they grew by an average of 1.1 percent per year.
  • Emissions from electricity generation fell despite the chaos in oil and gas markets, while renewable electricity generation grew 7.7 percent.
  • China and the United States, the world's two largest emitters, saw their emissions fall by 0.3 and 0.4 percent respectively.

Global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 56.4 million metric tons in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. That is an increase of 0.2 percent. The figures come from preliminary data published by Climate TRACE, which tracks emissions from countries, sectors, and cities around the world.

In total, the world emitted 29.7 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent in the first six months of the year. CO2 equivalent is a measure that converts all greenhouse gases into the corresponding amount of carbon dioxide.

Emissions growth keeps slowing

An increase of 0.2 percent is small compared with how emissions have developed in the past. Climate TRACE has data from 2015 onward. Between 2015 and 2023, global emissions grew by an average of 1.1 percent per year. In 2024 and 2025, they grew by an average of 0.5 percent per year, half as fast. Excluding the pandemic year 2020, that was the slowest growth since 2015, the year the Paris Agreement was signed. Climate TRACE noted this in its review of the full year 2025, published in February.

When Climate TRACE compiled the figures for the first half of 2025, the increase was 0.13 percent compared with the first half of 2024. The full year 2025 ended with an increase of 303 million metric tons, or 0.5 percent.

Looking further back, the difference is even larger. The Global Carbon Project, which measures carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, states that those emissions grew by around 3 percent per year during the first decade of the 2000s. Over the past decade, growth has averaged 0.8 percent per year.

Road traffic emissions rose, power sector emissions fell

The increase in the first half of 2026 came mainly from road traffic, where emissions rose by 68.3 million metric tons, or 2.0 percent. Among countries, India, the world's third largest emitter, had the largest increase, 30.6 million metric tons, or 1.5 percent.

At the same time, emissions fell in several large sectors. Emissions from electricity generation fell by 22.9 million metric tons, or 0.3 percent. Manufacturing emissions fell by 30.1 million metric tons, or 0.5 percent. Shipping emissions also fell, which according to Climate TRACE is likely because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted maritime traffic.

Power plants did not burn more coal

The disruptions in oil and gas markets in the first half of the year raised concerns that countries would burn more coal to generate electricity. That did not happen, according to Climate TRACE. Emissions from power plants that mainly burn coal fell by 33.5 million metric tons, or 0.7 percent. Emissions from power plants that mainly burn gas rose by 10.9 million metric tons, or 0.7 percent.

The decline is likely due to renewable energy accounting for a growing share of electricity generation, according to Climate TRACE. The organization refers to figures from Ember showing that renewable electricity generation grew 7.7 percent in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period the year before. Renewables' share of total electricity generation rose by 1.5 percentage points, while the share of coal fell by 1.3 percentage points and the share of gas by 0.6 percentage points.

Emissions fell in China and the United States

The two countries that emit the most in the world both saw their emissions fall in the first half of 2026. China's emissions fell by 25.4 million metric tons, or 0.3 percent. That is a change from earlier years. Between 2015 and 2023, China's emissions grew by an average of 2.66 percent per year. In 2025, they grew by 0.28 percent, the smallest increase since Climate TRACE began measuring in 2015.

US emissions fell by 15.0 million metric tons, or 0.4 percent. The country's emissions have been roughly flat over the past decade. In 2025, they were almost exactly the same as in 2015.

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