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I wrote in the WIP article Tesla's unique position beyond the hype that they are best positioned in the three areas that make up the car industry of the future:
1) Electrification 2) Self-driving and 3) Transport-as-service.
Of course, there are also threats to Tesla's future. If Elon Musk were to die, it would seriously harm them. But the biggest threat is something else.
In a previous analysis, I described how the appearance and function of cars would change when they are self-driving.
Autonomous cars will be much safer and not need large metal boxes around them, and without a steering wheel the driver and the passengers don't have to be seated like they are today. And why shouldn't the cars be able to go sideways?
On the other end, we have electric scooters. They are of course also developing.
Customers of European scooter company Voi found it a bit unstable with just one wheel front and back. So Voi added an extra wheel in the front.
You don't have to be Marie Curie to figure out that the customers will soon want to have some heat, and protection from the rain too.
From one end, the large metal boxes we know as cars will change and become smaller, lighter, look different and behave differently from today's cars. On the other end, the most primitive means of transportation also change based on customer demands and technological development.
Not to mention what's happening in the air. Drones become more powerful, faster and cheaper. They will be able to transport both people and goods. How common that will be depends on the costs, but also uncertain factors such as regulation and sensitivity to noise.
The future of the transport industry is complicated to predict. Who knows what revolutionary innovations will see the light of day in five years?
The three areas that seem to dominate in the near future (electricity, self-driving and transport-as-service) made their real debut just over ten years ago.
Tesla is very well positioned for the near future, but no one knows what awaits around the corner. Maybe Tesla will be able to adapt and continue to lead, or maybe someone else will take the lead. That is the biggest threat for Tesla.