🏭 Has China’s CO2 emissions peaked? New stats suggest so

• China’s carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 3 percent in March 2024.
• Solar and wind power covered 90 percent of the growth in electricity consumption, reducing the share of fossil fuels in electricity production despite strong demand.
• With the rapid increase in electric vehicles, structural changes are occurring, suggesting that emissions may have peaked in 2023.

Reduction in carbon dioxide emissions

China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decreased by 3 percent in March 2024. A new analysis from Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, strengthens the view that China’s emissions may have peaked in 2023, according to Carbon Brief.

Solar and wind power accounted for 90 percent of the growth in electricity consumption in March 2024. The share of fossil fuels in electricity production fell to 63.6 percent, from 67.4 percent a year earlier. This transition occurred despite strong demand for electricity.

In the first quarter of 2024, China’s CO2 emissions increased by 3.8 percent compared to the same period in 2023. The turning point came in March when CO2 emissions decreased by 3 percent.

Decreased construction activity and oil demand

Construction activity in China continued to decline in March 2024, resulting in an 8 percent decrease in steel production and a 22 percent decrease in cement production. The reduction in demand for steel and cement from the construction sector was a factor behind the emissions decrease. This trend seems set to continue as real estate investment keeps declining for the third consecutive year.

Electric vehicles now make up around 10 percent of all vehicles on China’s roads, which has reduced the growth in gasoline demand by 3.5 percentage points.

Continued growth in solar and wind power

In 2023, China connected nearly 300 gigawatts (GW) of new solar and wind power capacity to the grid. This growth continued in the first quarter of 2024, with a 40 percent increase compared to the previous year. Solar power installations reached 46 GW, a 36 percent increase year-on-year, while wind power installations hit 16 GW, a 50 percent increase.

China’s emissions may have peaked

If the current growth in renewable energy continues or accelerates, China’s carbon dioxide emissions may have peaked in 2023. The expected decline in emissions is attributed to the substantial growth in low-emission energy production, particularly in solar, wind, and hydropower. This development indicates that China may be moving towards a long period of emissions reductions.

From last year:

📉 China’s CO2 emissions set to decline in 2024 amid low-carbon energy surge

If the current pace of low-carbon energy expansion continues or accelerates, China could see a sustained period of emission reduction.

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